Real-Time Projections of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Variant in a University Setting, Texas, USA.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Johnson KE
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8632165 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Airborne transmission, a term combining both large droplet and aerosol transmission, is thought to be the main transmission route of SARS-CoV-2. Here we investigated the relative efficiency of aerosol transmission of two variants of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7 (alpha) and lineage A, in the Syrian hamster. A novel transmission caging setup was designed and validated, which allowed the assessment of transmission efficiency at various distances. At 2 meters distance, only particles <5 µm traversed between cages. In this setup, aerosol transmission was confirmed in 8 out of 8 (N = 4 for each variant) sentinels after 24 hours of exposure as demonstrated by respiratory shedding and seroconversion. Successful transmission occurred even when exposure time was limited to one hour, highlighting the efficiency of this transmission route. Interestingly, the B.1.1.7 variant outcompeted the lineage A variant in an airborne transmission chain after mixed infection of donors. Combined, this data indicates that the infectious dose of B.1.1.7 required for successful transmission may be lower than that of lineage A virus. The experimental proof for true aerosol transmission and the increase in the aerosol transmission potential of B.1.1.7 underscore the continuous need for assessment of novel variants and the development or preemptive transmission mitigation strategies.
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Project description:BackgroundIn December 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) reported a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VoC) which is now named B.1.1.7. Based on initial data from the UK and later data from other countries, this variant was estimated to have a transmission fitness advantage of around 40-80 % (Volz et al., 2021; Leung et al., 2021; Davies et al., 2021).AimThis study aims to estimate the transmission fitness advantage and the effective reproductive number of B.1.1.7 through time based on data from Switzerland.MethodsWe generated whole genome sequences from 11.8 % of all confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in Switzerland between 14 December 2020 and 11 March 2021. Based on these data, we determine the daily frequency of the B.1.1.7 variant and quantify the variant's transmission fitness advantage on a national and a regional scale.ResultsWe estimate B.1.1.7 had a transmission fitness advantage of 43-52 % compared to the other variants circulating in Switzerland during the study period. Further, we estimate B.1.1.7 had a reproductive number above 1 from 01 January 2021 until the end of the study period, compared to below 1 for the other variants. Specifically, we estimate the reproductive number for B.1.1.7 was 1.24 [1.07-1.41] from 01 January until 17 January 2021 and 1.18 [1.06-1.30] from 18 January until 01 March 2021 based on the whole genome sequencing data. From 10 March to 16 March 2021, once B.1.1.7 was dominant, we estimate the reproductive number was 1.14 [1.00-1.26] based on all confirmed cases. For reference, Switzerland applied more non-pharmaceutical interventions to combat SARS-CoV-2 on 18 January 2021 and lifted some measures again on 01 March 2021.ConclusionThe observed increase in B.1.1.7 frequency in Switzerland during the study period is as expected based on observations in the UK. In absolute numbers, B.1.1.7 increased exponentially with an estimated doubling time of around 2-3.5 weeks. To monitor the ongoing spread of B.1.1.7, our plots are available online.
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