An interpretable machine learning model based on a quick pre-screening system enables accurate deterioration risk prediction for COVID-19.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Jia L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8633326 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:OBJECTIVES:Sepsis is among the leading causes of morbidity, mortality, and cost overruns in critically ill patients. Early intervention with antibiotics improves survival in septic patients. However, no clinically validated system exists for real-time prediction of sepsis onset. We aimed to develop and validate an Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm for early prediction of sepsis. DESIGN:Observational cohort study. SETTING:Academic medical center from January 2013 to December 2015. PATIENTS:Over 31,000 admissions to the ICUs at two Emory University hospitals (development cohort), in addition to over 52,000 ICU patients from the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III ICU database (validation cohort). Patients who met the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis (Sepsis-3) prior to or within 4 hours of their ICU admission were excluded, resulting in roughly 27,000 and 42,000 patients within our development and validation cohorts, respectively. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:High-resolution vital signs time series and electronic medical record data were extracted. A set of 65 features (variables) were calculated on hourly basis and passed to the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours (where T = 12, 8, 6, or 4). Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert was used to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours and to produce a list of the most significant contributing factors. For the 12-, 8-, 6-, and 4-hour ahead prediction of sepsis, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic in the range of 0.83-0.85. Performance of the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert on the development and validation cohorts was indistinguishable. CONCLUSIONS:Using data available in the ICU in real-time, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert can accurately predict the onset of sepsis in an ICU patient 4-12 hours prior to clinical recognition. A prospective study is necessary to determine the clinical utility of the proposed sepsis prediction model.
| S-EPMC5851825 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The spontaneous conversion of asparagine residues to aspartic acid or iso-aspartic acid, via deamidation, is a major pathway of protein degradation and is often seriously disruptive to biological systems. Deamidation has been shown to negatively affect both in vitro stability and in vivo biological function of diverse classes of proteins. During protein therapeutics development, deamidation liabilities that are overlooked necessitate expensive and time-consuming remediation strategies, sometimes leading to termination of the project. In this paper, we apply machine learning to a large (n = 776) liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) dataset of monoclonal antibody peptides to create computational models for the post-translational modification asparagine deamidation, using the random decision forest method. We show that our categorical model predicts antibody deamidation with nearly 5% increased accuracy and 0.2 MCC over the best currently available models. Surprisingly, our model also paces or outperforms advanced and conventional models on an independent non-antibody dataset. In addition to deamidation probability, we are able to accurately predict deamidation rate (R2 = 0.963 and Q2 = 0.822), a capability with no peer in current models. This method should enable significant improvement in protein candidate selection, especially in biopharmaceutical development, and can be applied with similar accuracy to enzymes, monoclonal antibodies, next-generation formats, vaccine component antigens, and gene therapy vectors such as adeno-associated virus.
| S-EPMC6923510 | biostudies-literature
Project description:[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.omtm.2019.09.008.].
| S-EPMC7593340 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Electronic Medical Record (EMR) provides an opportunity to manage patient care efficiently and accurately. This includes clinical decision support tools for the timely identification of adverse events or acute illnesses preceded by deterioration. This paper presents a machine learning-driven tool developed using real-time EMR data for identifying patients at high risk of reaching critical conditions that may demand immediate interventions. This tool provides a pre-emptive solution that can help busy clinicians to prioritize their efforts while evaluating the individual patient risk of deterioration. The tool also provides visualized explanation of the main contributing factors to its decisions, which can guide the choice of intervention. When applied to a test cohort of 18,648 patient records, the tool achieved 100% sensitivity for prediction windows 2-8 h in advance for patients that were identified at 95%, 85% and 70% risk of deterioration.
| S-EPMC9273762 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Unlike linear models which are traditionally used to study all-cause mortality, complex machine learning models can capture non-linear interrelations and provide opportunities to identify unexplored risk factors. Explainable artificial intelligence can improve prediction accuracy over linear models and reveal great insights into outcomes like mortality. This paper comprehensively analyzes all-cause mortality by explaining complex machine learning models. Methods We propose the IMPACT framework that uses XAI technique to explain a state-of-the-art tree ensemble mortality prediction model. We apply IMPACT to understand all-cause mortality for 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year follow-up times within the NHANES dataset, which contains 47,261 samples and 151 features. Results We show that IMPACT models achieve higher accuracy than linear models and neural networks. Using IMPACT, we identify several overlooked risk factors and interaction effects. Furthermore, we identify relationships between laboratory features and mortality that may suggest adjusting established reference intervals. Finally, we develop highly accurate, efficient and interpretable mortality risk scores that can be used by medical professionals and individuals without medical expertise. We ensure generalizability by performing temporal validation of the mortality risk scores and external validation of important findings with the UK Biobank dataset. Conclusions IMPACT’s unique strength is the explainable prediction, which provides insights into the complex, non-linear relationships between mortality and features, while maintaining high accuracy. Our explainable risk scores could help individuals improve self-awareness of their health status and help clinicians identify patients with high risk. IMPACT takes a consequential step towards bringing contemporary developments in XAI to epidemiology. Qui et al. present a new approach, IMPACT, that uses explainable artificial intelligence to analyze all-cause mortality. IMPACT provides insights into the individualized mortality risk scores, while maintaining high model accuracy and the expressive power to capture complex, non-linear relationships between mortality and individuals’ features.
| S-EPMC9530124 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Breast cancer (BC) has surpassed lung cancer as the most frequently occurring cancer, and it is the leading cause of cancer-related death in women. Therefore, there is an urgent need to discover or design new drug candidates for BC treatment. In this study, we first collected a series of structurally diverse datasets consisting of 33,757 active and 21,152 inactive compounds for 13 breast cancer cell lines and one normal breast cell line commonly used in in vitro antiproliferative assays. Predictive models were then developed using five conventional machine learning algorithms, including naïve Bayesian, support vector machine, k-Nearest Neighbors, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting, as well as five deep learning algorithms, including deep neural networks, graph convolutional networks, graph attention network, message passing neural networks, and Attentive FP. A total of 476 single models and 112 fusion models were constructed based on three types of molecular representations including molecular descriptors, fingerprints, and graphs. The evaluation results demonstrate that the best model for each BC cell subtype can achieve high predictive accuracy for the test sets with AUC values of 0.689-0.993. Moreover, important structural fragments related to BC cell inhibition were identified and interpreted. To facilitate the use of the model, an online webserver called ChemBC (http://chembc.idruglab.cn/) and its local version software (https://github.com/idruglab/ChemBC) were developed to predict whether compounds have potential inhibitory activity against BC cells.
| S-EPMC8719637 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Soaring cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are pummeling the global health system. Overwhelmed health facilities have endeavored to mitigate the pandemic, but mortality of COVID-19 continues to increase. Here, we present a mortality risk prediction model for COVID-19 (MRPMC) that uses patients' clinical data on admission to stratify patients by mortality risk, which enables prediction of physiological deterioration and death up to 20 days in advance. This ensemble model is built using four machine learning methods including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, and Neural Network. We validate MRPMC in an internal validation cohort and two external validation cohorts, where it achieves an AUC of 0.9621 (95% CI: 0.9464-0.9778), 0.9760 (0.9613-0.9906), and 0.9246 (0.8763-0.9729), respectively. This model enables expeditious and accurate mortality risk stratification of patients with COVID-19, and potentially facilitates more responsive health systems that are conducive to high risk COVID-19 patients.
| S-EPMC7538910 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A primary challenge of high-throughput imaging flow cytometry (IFC) is to analyze the vast amount of imaging data, especially in applications where ground truth labels are unavailable or hard to obtain. We present an unsupervised deep embedding algorithm, the Deep Convolutional Autoencoder-based Clustering (DCAEC) model, to cluster label-free IFC images without any prior knowledge of input labels. The DCAEC model first encodes the input images into the latent representations and then clusters based on the latent representations. Using the DCAEC model, we achieve a balanced accuracy of 91.9% for human white blood cell (WBC) clustering and 97.9% for WBC/leukemia clustering using the 3D IFC images and 3D DCAEC model. Above all, although no human recognizable features can separate the clusters of cells with protein localization, we demonstrate the fused DCAEC model can achieve a cluster balanced accuracy of 85.3% from the label-free 2D transmission and 3D side scattering images. To reveal how the neural network recognizes features beyond human ability, we use the gradient-weighted class activation mapping method to discover the cluster-specific visual patterns automatically. Evaluation results show that the automatically identified salient image regions have strong cluster-specific visual patterns for different clusters, which we believe is a stride for the interpretable neural network for cell analysis with high-throughput IFCs.
| S-EPMC10667244 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The emergency department (ED) is a fast-paced environment responsible for large volumes of patients with varied disease acuity. Operational pressures on EDs are increasing, which creates the imperative to efficiently identify patients at imminent risk of acute deterioration. The aim of this study is to systematically compare the performance of machine learning algorithms based on logistic regression, gradient boosted decision trees, and support vector machines for predicting imminent clinical deterioration for patients based on cross-sectional patient data extracted from electronic patient records (EPR) at the point of entry to the hospital. We apply state-of-the-art machine learning methods to predict early patient deterioration, based on their first recorded vital signs, observations, laboratory results, and other predictors documented in the EPR. Clinical deterioration in this study is measured by in-hospital mortality and/or admission to critical care. We build on prior work by incorporating interpretable machine learning and fairness-aware modelling, and use a dataset comprising 118, 886 unplanned admissions to Salford Royal Hospital, UK, to systematically compare model variations for predicting mortality and critical care utilisation within 24 hours of admission. We compare model performance to the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and yield up to a 0.366 increase in average precision, up to a [Formula: see text] reduction in daily alert rate, and a median 0.599 reduction in differential bias amplification across the protected demographics of age and sex. We use Shapely Additive exPlanations to justify the models' outputs, verify that the captured data associations align with domain knowledge, and pair predictions with the causal context of each patient's most influential characteristics. Introducing our modelling to clinical practice has the potential to reduce alert fatigue and identify high-risk patients with a lower NEWS2 that might be missed currently, but further work is needed to trial the models in clinical practice. We encourage future research to follow a systematised approach to data-driven risk modelling to obtain clinically applicable support tools.
| S-EPMC10442440 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDiscovering potential drug-drug interactions (DDIs) is a long-standing challenge in clinical treatments and drug developments. Recently, deep learning techniques have been developed for DDI prediction. However, they generally require a huge number of samples, while known DDIs are rare.MethodsIn this work, we present KnowDDI, a graph neural network-based method that addresses the above challenge. KnowDDI enhances drug representations by adaptively leveraging rich neighborhood information from large biomedical knowledge graphs. Then, it learns a knowledge subgraph for each drug-pair to interpret the predicted DDI, where each of the edges is associated with a connection strength indicating the importance of a known DDI or resembling strength between a drug-pair whose connection is unknown. Thus, the lack of DDIs is implicitly compensated by the enriched drug representations and propagated drug similarities.ResultsHere we show the evaluation results of KnowDDI on two benchmark DDI datasets. Results show that KnowDDI obtains the state-of-the-art prediction performance with better interpretability. We also find that KnowDDI suffers less than existing works given a sparser knowledge graph. This indicates that the propagated drug similarities play a more important role in compensating for the lack of DDIs when the drug representations are less enriched.ConclusionsKnowDDI nicely combines the efficiency of deep learning techniques and the rich prior knowledge in biomedical knowledge graphs. As an original open-source tool, KnowDDI can help detect possible interactions in a broad range of relevant interaction prediction tasks, such as protein-protein interactions, drug-target interactions and disease-gene interactions, eventually promoting the development of biomedicine and healthcare.
| S-EPMC10978847 | biostudies-literature