Long-Term Changes of HIV/AIDS Incidence Rate in China and the U.S. Population From 1994 to 2019: A Join-Point and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.
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SUBMITTER: Ma Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8634360 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveTo predict the trend of AIDS in specific age groups and to determine the objective population for AIDS screening, this study explored the three transmission routes and characterized each patient group using the APC model based on the whole, local, and immigrant populations in Zhejiang, China.MethodsThe data recruited in this paper was obtained from the national Comprehensive AIDS Prevention and Control Information System - Antiviral Therapy Management database and the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbook of Zhejiang, China. An APC model was used to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of AIDS, as well as to predict the AIDS incidence in specific age groups based on different sexes with different transmission routes.ResultsThe AIDS incidence peaked in males aged 20-35 years; the incidence of males was higher than that of females due to the impact of period; obvious cohort effect was observed among the immigrants. In the whole and local populations, the incidences of males in all age groups and females in both the 35-year-old group and the whole age group were predicted to increase sharply in 5 years. In the immigrant population, the AIDS incidences in both sexes in all age groups were expected to increase significantly in 5 years. Under the influence of period, the incidence of AIDS via homosexual transmission in the whole population and the local population increased and remained stable after 2015. At the same time, the incidence of AIDS transmitted by homosexual and heterosexual routes in the immigrants also showed an increasing trend.ConclusionsThe results elucidate that there are sex differences in AIDS incidence, and the incidence of AIDS through various transmission routes in all groups is predicted to exhibit an upward trend in the 5 years to come. Effective intervention strategies should be developed and implemented by the public health departments in Zhejiang to control the epidemic of AIDS.
| S-EPMC8180133 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In Taiwan, the age-standardized incidence of EC, especially esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), has increased substantially during the past thirty years. We described the incidence trends of EC from 1985-2019 by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) and age-period-cohort model by using Taiwan Cancer Registry data. Age-period-cohort modeling was used to estimate the period and cohort effects of ESCC and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). The Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between age-adjusted incidence rates of EC and the prevalence of risk factors from national surveys. The results showed the incidence rate of ESCC in men (AAPC = 4.2, 95% CI = 3.1-5.4, p < 0.001) increased prominently from 1985-1989 to 2015-2019 while that of EAC in men (AAPC = 1.2, 95% CI = 0.9-1.5, p < 0.001) and ESCC in women (AAPC = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.4-2.1, p < 0.001) increased to a lesser degree. Increased period effects were observed in ESCC in men, ESCC in women, and EAC in men. High correlations were found between the risk factors and the increased birth-cohort effects of ESCC (p < 0.05). To conclude, the incidence of ESCC in both sex and EAC in men increased with statistical significance in recent decades. The increased prevalence of risk factors from approximately 1970-1995 could explain the increased cohort effects of ESCC.
| S-EPMC9741308 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe majority of epidemiological studies on migraine have been conducted in a specific country or region, and there is a lack of globally comparable data. We aim to report the latest information on global migraine incidence overview trends from 1990 to 2019.MethodsIn this study, the available data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. We present temporal trends in migraine for the world and its 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years. Meanwhile, an age-period-cohort model be used to estimate net drifts (overall annual percentage change), local drifts (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks.ResultsIn 2019, the global incidence of migraine increased to 87.6 million (95% UI: 76.6, 98.7), with an increase of 40.1% compared to 1990. India, China, United States of America, and Indonesia had the highest number of incidences, accounting for 43.6% of incidences globally. Females experienced a higher incidence than males, the highest incidence rate was observed in the 10-14 age group. However, there was a gradual transition in the age distribution of incidence from teenagers to middle-aged populations. The net drift of incidence rate ranged from 3.45% (95% CI: 2.38, 4.54) in high-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions to -4.02% (95% CI: -4.79, -3.18) in low SDI regions, 9 of 204 countries showed increasing trends (net drifts and its 95% CI were > 0) in incidence rate. The age-period-cohort analysis results showed that the relative risk of incidence rate generally showed unfavorable trends over time and in successively birth cohorts among high-, high-middle-, and middle SDI regions, but low-middle- and low-SDI regions keep stable.ConclusionsMigraine is still an important contributor to the global burden of neurological disorders worldwide. Temporal trends in migraine incidence are not commensurate with socioeconomic development and vary widely across countries. Both sexes and all age groups should get healthcare to address the growing migraine population, especially adolescents and females.
| S-EPMC10314517 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background The incidence and mortality trends of esophageal cancer (EC) remain unknown in China. This study aimed to describe the trend in incidence and mortality of EC in China. Methods We extracted age-standardized rates and numbers of EC in China for 1990−2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated to describe the trends, while the annual percentage of change and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were analyzed by the joinpoint regression analysis. The incidence and mortality data were analyzed via age-period-cohort model analysis. Results The ASIR and ASMR decreased slightly before 1999, then increased from 1999 to 2004, and decreased again thereafter, with overall AAPC values of −2.5 (−2.8, −2.1) for females and -0.9 (−1.1, −0.8) for males regarding incidence, with overall AAPC values of −3.1 (−3.3, −2.9) for females and −1.2 (−1.3, −1.1) for males regarding mortality. As a whole, the relative risk (RR) of EC increased with age in both females and males regarding incidence and mortality, except for the 80–84-year-old age group in females and the 85–89-year-old age group in males regarding incidence, where they began to decrease. The RR of EC increased with age in females and males regarding mortality, except for the 85–89-year-old age group in males. The time period showed a trend of first rising and then decreasing, and the RR of time period effect was lower in 2015 than that in 1990 in females regarding both incidence and mortality, whereas males showed a significant upward trend in both incidence and mortality. The birth cohort effect showed an overall downward trend. Conclusions The overall incidence and mortality of EC in China shows an increased and then decreased trend from 1990 to 2019. The AAPC decreased in incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019. The RR of incidence and mortality of EC in China is greatly affected by age in both sexes, by time period in male, we should be paid more attention to.
| S-EPMC9420985 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is rapidly increasing in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). The present study analyzed trends in T2DM incidence rate across the BRICS and associations with age, period, and birth cohort.MethodsThe incidence rate was estimated by the data obtained from GBD 2019 (Global Burden of Disease Study 2019) and was analyzed with the age-period-cohort framework. Incidence rates of T2DM (1990-2019) were collected for each 5-year age group (from 25 to 29 to 85-89 age group) stratified by gender from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.ResultsIn 2019, the the incidence rate of T2DM was 280.2 per 100,000 across the BRICS. Between 1990 and 2019, the incidence rate of T2DM among the BRICS population increased by 83.3%. In each period, as age increases, the incidence rate of T2DM in China and Russia first increased and then decreased, while the incidence rate of T2DM in Brazil, India and South Africa first increased and then decreased slightly with age group. Deteriorating period and cohort risks for incidence rate of T2DM were generally found across the BRICS.ConclusionsThe number of diabetic patients in the BRICS countries has continued to increase and the growth rate has been stable in the past 30 years, which is dependent on age and some other environmental factors. Some possible factors influencing T2DM incidence are analyzed and hypotheses generated through the age and period effects.
| S-EPMC8751323 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNon-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is one of the dominant malignancies in the hematological system. This study estimated secular trends in NHL incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 and provided comprehensive evaluations of potential age, period, and cohort effects.MethodsAge-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze changes in NHL incidence and mortality with age, period, and birth cohort effects based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of NHL rose by 144.6% and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) rose by 27.5% from 1990 to 2019. Local drift for incidence was greater than 0 (p< 0.05) for both genders in each age group. Local drift for mortality rates were greater than 0 (p< 0.05) for males aged 20 to 89 years and females aged 60 to 84 years and less than 0 (p< 0.05) for females aged 20 to 50 years. Period rate ratio (RR) and cohort RR of NHL incidence in China showed an increasing trend, while the trend of male and female mortality was not consistent.ConclusionsNHL incidence and mortality rates have been increasing in China over the past three decades. Males and older individuals were at high risk for NHL. Thus, attention to the prevention and therapy of NHL would be essential to lessen the disease burden of NHL.
| S-EPMC9853163 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest cancers in the world. In recent years, the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer have shown an increasing trend year by year. This study investigates the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2019, and evaluates the differences in the burden of pancreatic cancer across regions with different Sociodemographic Index (SDI) levels.MethodsEstimating the impact of age, period, and cohort on pancreatic cancer disease burden in different SDI regions using age-period-cohort modeling with data (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and net drift of age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) for pancreatic cancer in 120 countries.ResultsThe number of new cases of pancreatic cancer worldwide increased from 197,348 (95% UI: 188,604,203,971) in 1990 to 530,297 (486,175,573,635) in 2019, the number of deaths increased from 198,051 (189,329 to 204,763) in 1990 to 531,107 (491,948 to 566,537) in 2019, and the number of DALY increased from 4,647,207 (4,465,440 to 4,812,129) in 1990 to 11,549,016 (10,777,405 to 1,238,912) in 2019. The ASIR of the average levels in global pancreatic cancer increased from 5.22 (4.97 to 5.40) per 100,000 population to 6.57 (6.00 to 7.09) per 100,000 population, the ASMR increased from 5.34 (5.07 to 5.52) per 100,000 population to 6.62 (6.11 to 7.06) per 100,000 population, and the ASDR increased from 115.47 (110.82 to 119.60) per 100,000 population to 139.61 (130.18 to 149.14) per 100,000 population. The incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of pancreatic cancer increase with age globally and across all SDI regions, peaking in the 85-89 age group. In high and high-middle SDI regions, the growth rate for males is higher than for females before the age of 85, while females have a higher growth rate after 85. The 75-79 age group exhibits the highest DALY rate in high and high-middle SDI regions, significantly higher than the global and other SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the period effects of pancreatic cancer incidence, mortality, and DALY rates have increased significantly worldwide, while remaining almost unchanged in high and high-middle SDI regions. In contrast, period effects have significantly increased in middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions. Cohort effects are more pronounced in middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions.ConclusionsWith the aggravation of population aging, the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in the world are increasing, and effective prevention and control measures can be achieved by reducing the exposure of risk factors. The APC model used in our analysis provides a novel approach to understanding the complex trends in the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of pancreatic cancer. It can inform the development of targeted interventions to reduce the severe disease burden caused by pancreatic cancer.
| S-EPMC11350939 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsTo analyze the incidence and mortality trends of breast cancer among women in China from 1990 to 2019 and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence and mortality of breast cancer.MethodsWe performed a Joinpoint regression model to describe trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality. We used an age-period-cohort analysis model to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on breast cancer incidence and mortality. We collected breast cancer incidence and mortality among women aged 20-89 in China (1990-2019) from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) database.ResultsThe crude incidence and mortality of breast cancer from 1990 to 2019 in Chinese women showed an increasing trend, with an average annual increase percentage (AAPC) of 4.69% and 2.18%, respectively. The analysis on the age-period-cohort model revealed that the risk of incidence increased first and then decreased with age and peaked at 55-59 years old, whereas the risk of mortality increased by approximately 60.34 times from 20 to 89 years old. The risk of incidence and mortality increased by 2.64 and 1.49 times with the passage of time, respectively. The later the birth cohort is, the lower the risk of incidence and mortality will be.ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2019, the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among Chinese women showed an increasing trend, and the prevention and control situation of breast cancer was still grim. Therefore, visual examination and palpation examination should be actively carried out in adult women with breast cancer, and the conventional population after 40 years of age, the high-risk population carrying hereditary breast cancer gene and the elderly population should be assisted with imaging examination along with palpation examination. When treating patients suffering from breast cancer, in order to reduce the death rate, a personalized treatment plan should be developed based on the characteristics of different patients.
| S-EPMC9820148 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe ongoing need for an availability of informal carers is taking on greater relevance as the global burden of disease transitions from acute fatal diseases to long term morbidity. Growing evidence suggests that extra burden on family carers may further impact on their health and ability to provide care. Important as it is to monitor the prevalence of those conditions which influence the burden of disease, it is also important to monitor the prevalence and health profiles of those who provide the informal care. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the prevalence and demographics of adult carers aged 15 and over in the state of South Australia over 20 years between 1994 and 2014.MethodsData from nine representative, cross-sectional population surveys, conducted in South Australia, Australia were used, (total N = 26,788 and n = 1,504 carers). The adjusted prevalence estimate of carers and their demographic characteristics were determined. So as to examine whether there were any generational effects on the prevalence of carers, an Age-Period Cohort (APC) analysis was undertaken.ResultsThe prevalence estimates of carers increased during the two decades from 3.7% in 1994 to 6.7% by 2014. Large increases in the proportion of retired carers, those aged 70 years and over, those carers employed, and those with higher educational qualifications were observed. There were also larger proportions of respondents with a country of birth other than Australia, UK, Ireland and European counties. The APC analysis illustrated an increasing prevalence rate over each decade for carers aged 20-80 years, especially for those over the age of 60 years.ConclusionsThe results illustrate changing carer characteristics and carer prevalence estimates in South Australia as new generations of carers take on the caring role. There is a need to include questions regarding informal carers within ongoing mainstream population surveys, particularly at state levels, so as to plan for their future health care and home support.
| S-EPMC5029908 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCancer epidemiology articles often point out that cancer rates tend to be higher among males than females yet rarely is this theme the subject of investigation.MethodsWe used the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program data to compute age-adjusted (2000 U.S. standard population) sex-specific incidence rates and male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRR) for specific cancer sites and histologies for the period 1975 to 2004.ResultsThe 10 cancers with the largest male-to-female IRR were Kaposi sarcoma (28.73), lip (7.16), larynx (5.17), mesothelioma (4.88), hypopharynx (4.13), urinary bladder (3.92), esophagus (3.49), tonsil (3.07), oropharynx (3.06), and other urinary organs (2.92). Only 5 cancers had a higher incidence in females compared with males: breast (0.01), peritoneum, omentum, and mesentery (0.18), thyroid (0.39), gallbladder (0.57), and anus, anal canal, and anorectum (0.81). Between 1975 and 2004, the largest consistent increases in male-to-female IRR were for cancers of the tonsil, oropharynx, skin excluding basal and squamous, and esophagus, whereas the largest consistent decreases in IRR were for cancers of the lip and lung and bronchus. Male-to-female IRRs varied considerably by age, the largest increases of which were for ages 40 to 59 years for tonsil cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma. The largest decreases in male-to-female IRR by age, meanwhile, were for ages 30 to 49 years for thyroid cancer, ages >70 years for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, and ages >30 years for lung and bronchus cancer.ConclusionThese observations emphasize the importance of sex in cancer etiopathogenesis and may suggest novel avenues of investigation.
| S-EPMC2793271 | biostudies-literature