Long-Term Changes of HIV/AIDS Incidence Rate in China and the U.S. Population From 1994 to 2019: A Join-Point and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ma Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8634360 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:ObjectiveTo predict the trend of AIDS in specific age groups and to determine the objective population for AIDS screening, this study explored the three transmission routes and characterized each patient group using the APC model based on the whole, local, and immigrant populations in Zhejiang, China.MethodsThe data recruited in this paper was obtained from the national Comprehensive AIDS Prevention and Control Information System - Antiviral Therapy Management database and the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbook of Zhejiang, China. An APC model was used to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of AIDS, as well as to predict the AIDS incidence in specific age groups based on different sexes with different transmission routes.ResultsThe AIDS incidence peaked in males aged 20-35 years; the incidence of males was higher than that of females due to the impact of period; obvious cohort effect was observed among the immigrants. In the whole and local populations, the incidences of males in all age groups and females in both the 35-year-old group and the whole age group were predicted to increase sharply in 5 years. In the immigrant population, the AIDS incidences in both sexes in all age groups were expected to increase significantly in 5 years. Under the influence of period, the incidence of AIDS via homosexual transmission in the whole population and the local population increased and remained stable after 2015. At the same time, the incidence of AIDS transmitted by homosexual and heterosexual routes in the immigrants also showed an increasing trend.ConclusionsThe results elucidate that there are sex differences in AIDS incidence, and the incidence of AIDS through various transmission routes in all groups is predicted to exhibit an upward trend in the 5 years to come. Effective intervention strategies should be developed and implemented by the public health departments in Zhejiang to control the epidemic of AIDS.
| S-EPMC8180133 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is rapidly increasing in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). The present study analyzed trends in T2DM incidence rate across the BRICS and associations with age, period, and birth cohort.MethodsThe incidence rate was estimated by the data obtained from GBD 2019 (Global Burden of Disease Study 2019) and was analyzed with the age-period-cohort framework. Incidence rates of T2DM (1990-2019) were collected for each 5-year age group (from 25 to 29 to 85-89 age group) stratified by gender from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.ResultsIn 2019, the the incidence rate of T2DM was 280.2 per 100,000 across the BRICS. Between 1990 and 2019, the incidence rate of T2DM among the BRICS population increased by 83.3%. In each period, as age increases, the incidence rate of T2DM in China and Russia first increased and then decreased, while the incidence rate of T2DM in Brazil, India and South Africa first increased and then decreased slightly with age group. Deteriorating period and cohort risks for incidence rate of T2DM were generally found across the BRICS.ConclusionsThe number of diabetic patients in the BRICS countries has continued to increase and the growth rate has been stable in the past 30 years, which is dependent on age and some other environmental factors. Some possible factors influencing T2DM incidence are analyzed and hypotheses generated through the age and period effects.
| S-EPMC8751323 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionHigh and increasing levels of pregnancy-related mortality and morbidity in the U.S. indicate that the underlying health status of reproductive-aged women may be far from optimal, yet few studies have examined mortality trends and disparities exclusively among this population.MethodsAll-cause and cause-specific mortality data for 1999-2019 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER Underlying Cause of Death database. Levels and trends in mortality between 1999 and 2019 for women aged 15-44 years stratified by age, race/ethnicity, and state were examined. Given the urgent need to address pregnancy-related health disparities, the correlation between all-cause and pregnancy-related mortality rates across states for the years 2015-2019 was also examined.ResultsAge-adjusted, all-cause mortality rates among women aged 15-44 years improved between 2003 and 2011 but worsened between 2011 and 2019. The recent increase in mortality among this age group was not driven solely by increases in external causes of death. Patterns differed by age, race/ethnicity, and geography, with non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaskan Native women having 2.3 and non-Hispanic Black women having 1.4 times the risk of all-cause mortality in 2019 compared with that of non-Hispanic White women. Age-adjusted all-cause mortality rates and pregnancy-related mortality rates were strongly correlated at the state level (r=0.75).ConclusionsIncreasing mortality among reproductive-aged women has substantial implications for maternal, women's, and children's health. Given the high correlation between pregnancy-related mortality and all-cause mortality at the state level, addressing the structural factors that shape mortality risks may have the greatest likelihood of improving women's health outcomes across the life course.
| S-EPMC8940663 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Cancer epidemiology articles often point out that cancer rates tend to be higher among males than females yet rarely is this theme the subject of investigation. METHODS:We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program data to compute age-adjusted (2000 U.S. standard population) sex-specific incidence rates and male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRR) for specific cancer sites and histologies for the period 1975 to 2004. RESULTS:The 10 cancers with the largest male-to-female IRR were Kaposi sarcoma (28.73), lip (7.16), larynx (5.17), mesothelioma (4.88), hypopharynx (4.13), urinary bladder (3.92), esophagus (3.49), tonsil (3.07), oropharynx (3.06), and other urinary organs (2.92). Only 5 cancers had a higher incidence in females compared with males: breast (0.01), peritoneum, omentum, and mesentery (0.18), thyroid (0.39), gallbladder (0.57), and anus, anal canal, and anorectum (0.81). Between 1975 and 2004, the largest consistent increases in male-to-female IRR were for cancers of the tonsil, oropharynx, skin excluding basal and squamous, and esophagus, whereas the largest consistent decreases in IRR were for cancers of the lip and lung and bronchus. Male-to-female IRRs varied considerably by age, the largest increases of which were for ages 40 to 59 years for tonsil cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma. The largest decreases in male-to-female IRR by age, meanwhile, were for ages 30 to 49 years for thyroid cancer, ages >70 years for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, and ages >30 years for lung and bronchus cancer. CONCLUSION:These observations emphasize the importance of sex in cancer etiopathogenesis and may suggest novel avenues of investigation.
| S-EPMC2793271 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The ongoing need for an availability of informal carers is taking on greater relevance as the global burden of disease transitions from acute fatal diseases to long term morbidity. Growing evidence suggests that extra burden on family carers may further impact on their health and ability to provide care. Important as it is to monitor the prevalence of those conditions which influence the burden of disease, it is also important to monitor the prevalence and health profiles of those who provide the informal care. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the prevalence and demographics of adult carers aged 15 and over in the state of South Australia over 20 years between 1994 and 2014. METHODS:Data from nine representative, cross-sectional population surveys, conducted in South Australia, Australia were used, (total N = 26,788 and n = 1,504 carers). The adjusted prevalence estimate of carers and their demographic characteristics were determined. So as to examine whether there were any generational effects on the prevalence of carers, an Age-Period Cohort (APC) analysis was undertaken. RESULTS:The prevalence estimates of carers increased during the two decades from 3.7% in 1994 to 6.7% by 2014. Large increases in the proportion of retired carers, those aged 70 years and over, those carers employed, and those with higher educational qualifications were observed. There were also larger proportions of respondents with a country of birth other than Australia, UK, Ireland and European counties. The APC analysis illustrated an increasing prevalence rate over each decade for carers aged 20-80 years, especially for those over the age of 60 years. CONCLUSIONS:The results illustrate changing carer characteristics and carer prevalence estimates in South Australia as new generations of carers take on the caring role. There is a need to include questions regarding informal carers within ongoing mainstream population surveys, particularly at state levels, so as to plan for their future health care and home support.
| S-EPMC5029908 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Malignancies of the lymphoid cells, including non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHL), HL, and multiple myeloma, occur at much lower rates in Asians than other racial/ethnic groups in the United States. It remains unclear whether these deficits are explained by genetic or environmental factors. To better understand environmental contributions, we examined incidence patterns of lymphoid malignancies among populations characterized by ethnicity, birthplace, and residential neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and ethnic enclave status. METHODS:We obtained data about all Asian patients diagnosed with lymphoid malignancies between 1988 and 2004 from the California Cancer Registry and neighborhood characteristics from U.S. Census data. RESULTS:Although incidence rates of most lymphoid malignancies were lower among Asian than white populations, only follicular lymphoma (FL), chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL), and nodular sclerosis (NS) HL rates were statistically significantly lower among foreign-born than U.S.-born Asians with incidence rate ratios ranging from 0.34 to 0.87. Rates of CLL/SLL and NS HL were also lower among Asian women living in ethnic enclaves or lower SES neighborhoods than those living elsewhere. CONCLUSIONS:These observations support strong roles of environmental factors in the causation of FL, CLL/SLL, and NS HL. IMPACT:Studying specific lymphoid malignancies in U.S. Asians may provide valuable insight toward understanding their environmental causes.
| S-EPMC3111874 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Descriptions of the contemporary U.S. opioid crisis emphasize several "waves" of overdose deaths. However, a focus on trends in overdose deaths may obscure important sociological dynamics. The authors provide heatmap visualizations of estimated annual rates of past-year substance use, rather than overdose deaths, for prescription pain relievers and heroin. These visualizations are based on weighted analyses of self-reports, cross-classified by age and period, collected as part of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health from 2002 to 2017. Whereas descriptions of the U.S. opioid crisis tend to focus on period dynamics, these visualizations indicate that cohort patterns of drug use are also evident in addition to well-known age variation. A substantive focus on cohort patterns highlights the possibility that cohorts of people who use drugs may remain at risk for overdose in the years to come. These findings suggest that policies aimed only at restricting opioid availability may have limited effects.
| S-EPMC8356655 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Tuberculosis (TB) poses a severe public health challenge in China and worldwide. This study evaluated the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on reported incidence trends of TB based on population and refined the characteristics of high-risk groups. Methods Aggregate data that reported pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases from China Tuberculosis Management Information System (TBIMS) from 2006 to 2020 were used to analyze effect coefficients through the age–period–cohort (APC) model based on intrinsic estimator (IE) method, and converted them into relative risk (RR) to estimate trends. Results A total of 14.82 million cases of PTB were reported in China from 2006 to 2020, showing a continuous downward trend. The reporting rate increased with age by age group, with 70–74 years old being 2–3 times higher than that in 20–24 years old. APC analysis model showed that age effects were bimodal in 20–24 years old [RR = 2.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73–3.03] and 70–74 years old (RR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.67–2.27), and lower than the overall average in the groups under 15 years old. Stratified results showed that the risk was higher for women under age 40 than men and higher for men over 40. The risk was higher in urban than in rural areas under 30 years old and slightly higher in rural than in urban between 30 and 64 years old. The risk for 15–34 years old was significantly higher in the east than in other regions. The period effects showed a decreasing trend, and the risk was higher in rural in recent years. Except for cohorts born in 1961–1965 and 2001–2005, where the RR increased, the later the cohort was born, the lower the risk. The cohort 1926–1930 in eastern had the highest risk (RR = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.44–4.98). Conclusions The reported incidence of PTB continued to decline in China from 2006 to 2020. The young (20–24 years old) and the elderly (70–74 years old) were equally at high risk. There were differences in the age, period and cohort effects on PTB incidence among gender, urban–rural and regions. Our findings better reflected the characteristics of high-risk populations, thus contributing to the development of timely and effective intervention strategies, and providing clues for etiological research. Graphical abstract Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-01009-4.
| S-EPMC9331155 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesPertussis or whooping cough-one of the most contagious diseases-is caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Bordetella pertussis. Despite a high vaccination rate, Korea recently experienced a resurgence of pertussis. This study explores patterns and possible explanations for this resurgence through an age-period-cohort analysis.MethodsUsing secondary data from the infectious disease portal of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the Korea Statistical Information Service of Statistics Korea, this study analyzed the incidence of pertussis in Korea to determine which factors contributed to the recent increase using an age-period-cohort model.ResultsAnalysis of the age effect indicated that the age group most vulnerable to pertussis was 0-year to 2-year-olds. Analysis of the period effect showed a sharp increase in the incidence rate after 2016. Analysis of the cohort effect showed a significant decrease in incidence beginning with the 1955 birth cohort, with the risk increasing again with the 2000s birth cohort.ConclusionsPrevious studies have suggested 3 main possible explanations for our results. First, the increased incidence rate can be attributed to contact rates. Second, the rate of immunity through natural exposure has decreased due to the low number of circulating pathogens, in turn affecting the trend of infection. Lastly, variations in pathogens may have also contributed to the increase in incidence. Given that the most significant increase in incidence was observed among infants younger than 1 year old, sufficient maternal immunity must be prioritized to provide passive immunity to newborns via the placenta.
| S-EPMC8666685 | biostudies-literature
Project description:It is common to use the mid-point between the latest-negative and earliest-positive test dates as the date of the infection event. However, the accuracy of the mid-point method has yet to be systematically quantified for incidence studies once participants start to miss their scheduled test dates.We used a simulation-based approach to generate an infectious disease epidemic for an incidence cohort with a high (80-100%), moderate (60-79.9%), low (40-59.9%) and poor (30-39.9%) testing rate. Next, we imputed a mid-point and random-point value between the participant's latest-negative and earliest-positive test dates. We then compared the incidence rate derived from these imputed values with the true incidence rate generated from the simulation model.The mid-point incidence rate estimates erroneously declined towards the end of the observation period once the testing rate dropped below 80%. This decline was in error of approximately 9%, 27% and 41% for a moderate, low and poor testing rate, respectively. The random-point method did not introduce any systematic bias in the incidence rate estimate, even for testing rates as low as 30%.The mid-point assumption of the infection date is unjustified and should not be used to calculate the incidence rate once participants start to miss the scheduled test dates. Under these conditions, we show an artefactual decline in the incidence rate towards the end of the observation period. Alternatively, the single random-point method is straightforward to implement and produces estimates very close to the true incidence rate.
| S-EPMC5837439 | biostudies-other