Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bull JC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8634623 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:In order to conduct an objective evaluation of potential ecological effects of grey seal predation on marine mammals, it is essential to establish a broad knowledge base helping in the thorough identification of such cases during post-mortem examination. The aim of this work is to report and discuss outcomes resulting from a retrospective evaluation of harbour (Phoca vitulina) and grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) stranding and necropsy data (n = 3274). In addition, the results are compared to a recent case of definite grey seal predation from Germany as well as reports from other countries. Carcasses potentially subjected to grey seal predation show severe lacerations with a circular pattern leaving a smooth, linear and cut-like wound margin. Large parts of skin and underlying tissue are detached from the body and loss of blubber is common. Occurrence frequencies of encountered lesions are presented and a list of parameters to be used for the assessment of similar cases as well as a complementary decision tree are suggested. With the proposed parameters, categories and tools, a baseline can be built in order to facilitate the standardised recognition of predation cases during post-mortem examinations of seals between groups working with populations across several geographic ranges.
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Project description:Change in breeding phenology is often a response to environmental forcing, but less is known of the mechanism underlying such changes and their fitness consequences. Here, we report on changes in the breeding phenology from a 27-year longitudinal study (1991-2017) of individually marked, known-aged grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada. We used generalized linear mixed models and a 3-step process to develop a model that includes interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic covariates and to test hypotheses about the influence of fixed factors (maternal age, parity, previous reproductive success, pup sex, colony density, Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Sea Surface Temperature) and a random factor (female identity) on parturition dates. We also examined the consequences of the shift in birthdates on maternal energy allocation in offspring as measured by pup weaning mass. Birthdates were known for 2,768 pups of 660 known-age females. For 494 females with ≥2 parturition dates, repeatability as measured by the intraclass correlation was high (mean = 0.66). 87% of the variation in birthdates was explained by a mixed-effects model that included intrinsic and extrinsic fixed effects. Most of the explained variation was associated with the random effect of female identity. Parity was the most important intrinsic fixed effect, with inexperienced mothers giving birth later in the season than multiparous females. Over almost 3 decades, mean birthdates advanced by 15 days. The mixed model with intrinsic effects and population size, the detrended AMO from the previous year and mean NAO in the previous 3 years explained 80% of the variation with 21% of variation from the fixed effects. Both primiparous and multiparous individuals responded to the climate forcing, and there was strong evidence for heterogeneity in the response. Nevertheless, the shift in birthdates did not impact pup weaning mass.
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Project description:Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends.
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Project description:Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species' life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5?°C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n?=?39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n?=?91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.
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Project description:As a follow-up on the data presented for seals, we herein report and discuss outcomes resulting from a retrospective evaluation of harbour porpoise stranding and necropsy data from Schleswig-Holstein, Germany (n = 4463) to enable an objective evaluation of potential ecological effects of grey seal predation on porpoises. Results are compared to a recent case of definite grey seal predation as well as to reports from other countries. Porpoise carcasses potentially subject to grey seal predation show severe lacerations, with large parts of skin and underlying tissue being detached from the body. Loss of blubber tissue is common. Based on the occurrence frequencies of encountered lesions, a list of parameters as well as a complementary decision tree are suggested to be used for future assessments. The results shown add to an increasingly standardised assessment protocol of suspected grey seal predation cases making respective results comparable between different areas and countries. The usage of a standardised protocol may increase the awareness of grey seal predation and the reporting of such cases. By this, differences in the predation and feeding patterns as well as the potential ecological relevance of this behaviour may be elucidated.
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Project description:Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km2, and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.
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Project description:Plant phenology is sensitive to climate change; the timing of flowering has served as a visible indicator of plant phenology in numerous studies. The present study used phenological records from a manual monitoring program to characterize the flowering phenology of 12 species in Guia Hill, Macao. The mean peak flowering dates (PFDs) of these species ranged from March to September, 41.7% of which occurred in May. The earliest or latest PFDs of nine species occurred in 2013, a year with extremely heavy rain events in early spring. In addition, we found that, in the 5-year period, the monthly mean temperature or monthly precipitation in two periods, specifically 1) during November to December of the previous year and 2) during 0-2 months before the PFDs of each species, were significantly correlated with the PFD of eight species. The result showed that, even though complex species-specific responses to the characteristics of climate widely exist, most species in the present study responded to shifts in climate shifts in these two periods. In addition, some species were extraordinarily sensitive to extreme climate events. Precipitation was more effective in altering flowering date than temperature, especially among the late-flowering species in Guia Hill, Macao.
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Project description:Monitoring patterns in biodiversity and phenology have become increasingly important given accelerating levels of anthropogenic change. Long-term monitoring programs have reported earlier occurrence of spring activity, reflecting species response to climate change. Although tracking shifts in spring migration represents a valuable approach to monitoring community-level consequences of climate change, robust long-term observations are challenging and costly. Audio recordings and metrics of bioacoustic activity could provide an effective method for monitoring changes in songbird activity and broader biotic interactions. We used 3 years of spring and fall recordings at six sites in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, an area experiencing rapid warming and glacial retreat, to examine the utility of bioacoustics to detect changes in songbird phenology. We calculated the Acoustic Complexity Index (ACI), an algorithm representing an index of bird community complexity. Abrupt changes in ACI values from winter to spring corresponded to spring transition, suggesting that ACI may be an effective, albeit coarse metric to detect the arrival of migrating songbirds. The first peak in ACI shifted from April 16 to April 11 from 2012 to 2014. Changes in ACI were less abrupt in the fall due to weather events, suggesting spring recordings are better suited to indicate phenology. To ensure changes in ACI values were detecting real changes in songbird activity, we explored the relationship between ACI and song of three species: varied thrush (Ixoreus naevius), Pacific wren (Troglodytes pacificus), and ruby-crowned kinglet (Regulus calendula). ACI was positively related to counts of all species, but most markedly with song of the varied thrush, the most common species in our recordings and a known indicator of forest ecosystem health. We conclude that acoustic recordings paired with bioacoustic indices may be a useful method of monitoring shifts in songbird communities due to climate change and other sources of anthropogenic disturbance.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Small, genetically uniform populations may face an elevated risk of extinction due to reduced environmental adaptability and individual fitness. Fragmentation can intensify these genetic adversities and, therefore, dispersal and gene flow among subpopulations within an isolated population is often essential for maintaining its viability. Using microsatellite and mtDNA data, we examined genetic diversity, spatial differentiation, interregional gene flow, and effective population sizes in the critically endangered Saimaa ringed seal (Phoca hispida saimensis), which is endemic to the large but highly fragmented Lake Saimaa in southeastern Finland. RESULTS:Microsatellite diversity within the subspecies (HE?=?0.36) ranks among the lowest thus far recorded within the order Pinnipedia, with signs of ongoing loss of individual heterozygosity, reflecting very low effective subpopulation sizes. Bayesian assignment analyses of the microsatellite data revealed clear genetic differentiation among the main breeding areas, but interregional structuring was substantially weaker in biparentally inherited microsatellites (FST?=?0.107) than in maternally inherited mtDNA (FST?=?0.444), indicating a sevenfold difference in the gene flow mediated by males versus females. CONCLUSIONS:Genetic structuring in the population appears to arise from the joint effects of multiple factors, including small effective subpopulation sizes, a fragmented lacustrine habitat, and behavioural dispersal limitation. The fine-scale differentiation found in the landlocked Saimaa ringed seal is especially surprising when contrasted with marine ringed seals, which often exhibit near-panmixia among subpopulations separated by hundreds or even thousands of kilometres. Our results demonstrate that population structures of endangered animals cannot be predicted based on data on even closely related species or subspecies.
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