Open synthetic travel demand for Paris and Ile-de-France: Inputs and output data.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Horl S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8637465 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundMore than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis.MethodsWe use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Île-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Different types and durations of social distancing are simulated, including progressive and targeted strategies, with large-scale testing.ResultsWe estimate the reproductive number at 3.18 [3.09, 3.24] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and at 0.68 [0.66, 0.69] during lockdown, thanks to an 81% reduction of the average number of contacts. Model predictions capture the disease dynamics during lockdown, showing the epidemic curve reaching ICU system capacity, largely strengthened during the emergency, and slowly decreasing. Results suggest that physical contacts outside households were largely avoided during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave overwhelming the healthcare system, if conditions return to normal. Extensive case finding and isolation are required for social distancing strategies to gradually relax lockdown constraints.ConclusionsAs France experiences the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.
| S-EPMC7391016 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objectif Évaluation de l’impact du premier mois de confinement lors de l’épidémie Covid 19 sur l’activité de chirurgie carcinologique des services universitaires d’otorhinolaryngologie en Île-de-France. Matériel et méthodes Étude observationnelle, prospective, multicentrique menée au sein de 6 services universitaires (Paris Centre, Nord, Est et Sorbonne) d’otorhinolaryngologie sur le mois précédant (Groupe A) et suivant (Groupe B) le confinement instauré le 17/03/2020. Objectif principal : évaluer l’impact sur l’activité carcinologique chirurgicale. Objectifs secondaires : évaluer les caractéristiques de la population, les modalités pratiques des interventions, les suites opératoires, l’évolution Covid des patients et des otorhinolaryngologistes et les effets néfastes. Résultats Deux cent vingt-quatre interventions étaient réalisées. Une diminution de 10,9 % de l’activité était notée, sans différence significative entre les services. Les carcinomes épidermoïdes et la localisation au niveau du larynx, de l’hypopharynx, de l’oropharynx, de la cavité buccale, des fosses nasales et sinus de la face prédominaient, avec respectivement 79 % et 75,8 % des interventions, sans différence significative entre les groupes. Les tumeurs classées T3/4 et N2/3 étaient plus fréquentes au sein du Groupe B (p = 0,002 et 0,0004). Il n’existait pas de différence significative entre les groupes en termes d’abord chirurgical, de modalités de reconstruction, de suites opératoires et de durée de séjour en soins intensifs ou en réanimation, de trachéotomie, de sonde nasogastrique et d’hospitalisation. Aucun patient n’était testé positif pour la Covid 19 au sein du Groupe A pour trois au sein du Groupe B, sans effets néfastes. Les otorhinolaryngologistes qui participaient aux interventions ne développaient pas de symptômes évocateurs d’une infestation par la Covid 19. Conclusion Cette étude souligne que l’épidémie Covid 19 et le confinement n’ont que légèrement altéré la chaîne diagnostique et thérapeutique chirurgicale des cancers pris en charge dans les services universitaires ORL d’Île-de-France, conservant toutes les chances de survie, sans favoriser la diffusion du virus.
| S-EPMC7284262 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of our retrospective study was to evaluate the earliest COVID19-related signal to anticipate requirements of intensive care unit (ICU) beds. Although the number of ICU beds is crucial during the COVID-19 epidemic, there is no recognized early indicator to anticipate it. In the Ile-de-France region, from February 20 to May 5, 2020, emergency medical service (EMS) calls and the response provided (ambulances) together the percentage of positive reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests, general practitioner (GP) and emergency department (ED) visits, and hospital admissions of COVID-19 patients were recorded daily and compared to the number of ICU patients. Correlation curve analysis was performed to determine the best correlation coefficient, depending on the number of days the indicator has been shifted. Primary endpoint was the number of ICU patients. EMS calls, percentage of positive RT-PCR tests, ambulances used, ED and GP visits of COVID-19 patients were strongly associated (R2 ranging between 0.79 to 0.99, all P<0.001) with COVID-19 ICU patients with an anticipation delay of 23, 15, 14, 13, and 12 days respectively. Hospitalization did not anticipate ICU bed requirement. A qualitative analysis of the onset of the second wave period of the epidemic (August 1 to September 15, 2020) in the same region provided similar results. The daily number of COVID19-related telephone calls received by the EMS and corresponding dispatch ambulances, and the proportion of positive RT-PCR tests were the earliest indicators of the number of COVID19 patients requiring ICU care during the epidemic crisis, rapidly followed by ED and GP visits. This information may help health authorities to anticipate a future epidemic, including a second wave of COVID19, or decide additional social measures.
| S-EPMC7673527 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose of the studySeveral studies have confirmed the impact of confinement on the population, resulting in disruption of care, somatic and psychological effects. Our study looks at adverse effects and problems of adherence to oral immunotherapy therapy (OIT) during this period.Patients and methodsA total of 132 patients, mostly children (95%), with an atopic history (60%) followed for an OIT were included in 3 allergology centers in Île-de-France, during the period of confinement from 03/16 to 05/11/20. The main food allergens used for OIT were peanut (38%), cow's milk (24%), hazelnut (14%), egg (9%), cashew nut and pistachio nut (8%).ResultsAdverse effects were found in 13 patients or 10% of the cases. These reactions were mainly grade 1 and 2 according to the Ring and Messmer classification. Three patients had grade 3 reactions and six patients used epinephrine at home. Adherence was correct in 81% of cases with no omissions. Three patients increased their daily dose without medical advice. No significant difference was found in the subgroup analysis comparing age-matched children followed up in OIT in 2019 and 2020 over the same period in the same hospital.ConclusionThere was no increase in adverse events in OIT during the confinement period. Therapeutic education during OIT is paramount and helps to reduce the occurrence of adverse events.
| S-EPMC7746089 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Designing the shape and size of a cell is an interesting challenge for synthetic biology. Prolonged exposure to the mating pheromone alpha-factor induces an unusual morphology in yeast cells: multiple mating projections. The goal of this work was to reproduce the multiple projections phenotype in the absence of alpha-factor using a gain-of-function approach termed "Alternative Inputs (AIs)". An alternative input is defined as any genetic manipulation that can activate the signaling pathway instead of the natural input. Interestingly, none of the alternative inputs were sufficient to produce multiple projections although some produced a single projection. Then, we extended our search by creating all combinations of alternative inputs and deletions that were summarized in an AIs-Deletions matrix. We found a genetic manipulation (AI-Ste5p ste2Delta) that enhanced the formation of multiple projections. Following up this lead, we demonstrated that AI-Ste4p and AI-Ste5p were sufficient to produce multiple projections when combined. Further, we showed that overexpression of a membrane-targeted form of Ste5p alone could also induce multiple projections. Thus, we successfully re-engineered the multiple projections mating morphology using alternative inputs without alpha-factor.
| S-EPMC2735001 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the impact of the first month of lockdown related to the Covid-19 epidemic on the oncologic surgical activity in the Ile de France region university hospital otorhinolaryngology departments. MATERIAL AND METHODS:A multicenter prospective observational assessment was conducted in 6 university hospital otorhinolaryngology departments (Paris Centre, Nord, Est and Sorbonne) during the 1-month periods before (Month A) and after (Month B) lockdown on March 17, 2020. The main goal was to evaluate lockdown impact on oncologic surgical activity in the departments. Secondary goals were to report population characteristics, surgery conditions, postoperative course, progression of Covid status in patients and surgeons, and adverse events. RESULTS:224 procedures were performed. There was 10.9% reduction in overall activity, without significant difference between departments. Squamous cell carcinoma and larynx, hypopharynx, oropharynx, oral cavity and nasal cavity and sinus locations were predominant, at 79% and 75.8% of cases respectively, with no significant differences between months. T3/4 and N2/3 tumors were more frequent in Month B (P=.002 and .0004). There was no significant difference between months regarding surgical approach, type of reconstruction, postoperative course, tracheotomy and nasogastric feeding-tube time, intensive care stay or hospital stay. None of the Month A patients were Covid-19-positive, versus 3 in Month B, without adverse events. None of the otorhinolaryngologists involved in the procedures developed symptoms suggesting Covid-19 infestation. CONCLUSION:The present study underscored the limited impact of the Covid-19 epidemic and lockdown on surgical diagnosis and cancer surgery in the Ile de France university otorhinolaryngology departments, maintaining chances for optimal survival without spreading the virus.
| S-EPMC7293504 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of this work was to test a surveillance protocol able to detect extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-, cephalosporinase (AmpC)- and carbapenemase (CP)-producing gram-negative bacteria in three conveniently chosen dairy farms with known prior occurrences of ESBL- and CP-producing strains. The protocol was applied monthly for a year. At each visit, 10 healthy lactating dairy cows were rectally swabbed, and raw milk filters (RMFs) were sampled in two of the three farms. Bacterial isolation was based on a first screening step with MacConkey agar supplemented with 1 mg/L cefotaxime and commercial carbapenem-supplemented media. We failed to detect CP-producing strains but showed that ESBL-Escherichia strains, found in one farm only (13 strains), were closely associated with multi-drug resistance (12 out of 13). The limited number of conveniently selected farms and the fact that RMFs could not be retrieved from one of them limit the validity of our findings. Still, our results illustrate that ESBL-status changes monthly based on fecal swabs and negative herds should be qualified as "unsuspected" as proposed by previous authors. Although surveillance of farm statuses based on RMF analysis could theoretically allow for a better sensitivity than individual swabs, we failed to illustrate it as both farms where RMFs could be retrieved were constantly negative. Determination of CP herd-level status based on RMFs and our surveillance protocol was hindered by the presence of intrinsically resistant bacteria or strains cumulating multiple non-CP resistance mechanisms which means our protocol is not specific enough for routine monitoring of CP in dairy farms.
| S-EPMC7902890 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding the immunological basis of resistance to gastrointestinal nematode infections in livestock is important in order to develop novel methods of parasite control such as vaccination or genetic selection for parasite resistance. The present study aimed to investigate differences in immune response between parasite resistant Santa Ines and susceptible Ile de France sheep breeds to natural Haemonchus contortus infection. Parasitological parameters, humoral immunity, local and circulating cellular immune responses were evaluated in 19 Santa Ines and 19 Ile de France lambs undergoing different anthelmintic treatments regimens: suppressive treatments (SUP) or targeted selective treatments (TST) over a 5-month grazing period. Santa Ines lambs had significantly lower Haemonchus faecal egg count and worm burden compared to Ile de France regardless of treatment regime. In addition, circulating blood eosinophils count and parasite-specific IgG levels were significantly higher and more rapidly induced in Santa Ines lambs. Abomasal immune responses were generally greater in the resistant breed, which had significantly higher levels of parasite-specific IgA in mucus, and elevated number of globule leukocytes and CD3+ T cells within the abomasal mucosal. Furthermore, numbers of POU2F3+ epithelial cells, a tuft-cell specific transcription factor, were also elevated in the Santa Ines breed, suggesting that this breed is better able to initiate T-helper type 2 immune responses within the abomasum. In conclusion, the differential immunological responses detailed here are relevant to understanding resistance to gastrointestinal nematodes in other host breeds, as well as to resistance breeding as a sustainable control approach for parasitic infections.
| S-EPMC6884896 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCytomegalovirus (CMV) is the most frequent cause of congenital infection. The objective of this study was to evaluate predictive factors for CMV seronegativity in a cohort of pregnant women in Paris, France.MethodsPregnant women enrolled in a prospective cohort during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic were tested for CMV IgG antibodies. Variables collected were age, geographic origin, lifestyle, work characteristics, socioeconomic status, gravidity, parity and number of children at home. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify independent predictive factors for CMV seropositivity.ResultsAmong the 826 women enrolled, 389 (47.1%) were primiparous, and 552 (67.1%) had Metropolitan France as a geographic origin. Out of these, 355 (i.e. 57.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI): [53.6%-60.4%]) were CMV seropositive: 43.7% (95% CI:[39.5%-47.9%]) in those whose geographic origin was Metropolitan France and 84.1% in those with other origins (95% CI:[79.2%-88.3%]). Determinants associated with CMV seropositivity in a multivariate logistic regression model were: (i) geographic origin (p<0.001(compared with Metropolitan France, geographic origins of Africa adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 21.2, 95% CI:[9.7-46.5], French overseas departments and territories and other origin, aOR 7.5, 95% CI:[3.9-14.6], and Europe or Asia, aOR 2.2, 95% CI: [1.3-3.7]); and (ii) gravidity (p?=?0.019), (compared with gravidity?=?1, if gravidity?3, aOR?=?1.5, 95% CI: [1.1-2.2]; if gravidity?=?2, aOR?=?1.0, 95% CI: [0.7-1.4]). Work characteristics and socioeconomic status were not independently associated with CMV seropositivity.ConclusionsIn this cohort of pregnant women, a geographic origin of Metropolitan France and a low gravidity were predictive factors for CMV low seropositivity. Such women are therefore the likely target population for prevention of CMV infection during pregnancy in France.
| S-EPMC3933677 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Gut microbiota and Antimicrobial resistance alteration during international travel in Hong Kong traveler
| PRJEB36968 | ENA