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Heterogeneity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: Implications for clinical practice and research activity.

ABSTRACT: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a heterogeneous condition with a wide spectrum of clinical presentations and natural history and disease severity. There is also substantial inter-individual variation and variable response to a different therapy. This heterogeneity of NAFLD is in turn influenced by various factors primarily demographic/dietary factors, metabolic status, gut microbiome, genetic predisposition together with epigenetic factors. The differential impact of these factors over a variable period of time influences the clinical phenotype and natural history. Failure to address heterogeneity partly explains the sub-optimal response to current and emerging therapies for fatty liver disease. Consequently, leading experts across the globe have recently suggested a change in nomenclature of NAFLD to metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) which can better reflect current knowledge of heterogeneity and does not exclude concomitant factors for fatty liver disease (e.g. alcohol, viral hepatitis, etc.). Precise identification of disease phenotypes is likely to facilitate clinical trial recruitment and expedite translational research for the development of novel and effective therapies for NAFLD/MAFLD.

SUBMITTER: Pal P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8637673 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background & aimsThe predicted risk and timeline to progression to liver-related outcomes in the population with NAFLD are not well-characterized. We aimed to examine the risk and time to progression to cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation and death in a contemporary population over a long follow-up period, to obtain information to guide endpoint selection and sample size calculations for clinical trials on NAFLD-related cirrhosis.MethodsThis is a retrospective study of prospectively collected data in a medical record linkage system, including all adults diagnosed with NAFLD between 1996-2016 by clinical, biochemical and radiological criteria in Olmsted County, Minnesota and followed until 2019. Liver-related outcomes and death were ascertained and validated by individual medical record review. Time and risk of progression from NAFLD to cirrhosis to decompensation and death were assessed using multistate modeling.ResultsA total of 5,123 individuals with NAFLD (median age 52 years, 53% women) were followed for a median of 6.4 (range 1-23) years. The risk of progression was as follows: from NAFLD to cirrhosis: 3% in 15 years; compensated cirrhosis to first decompensation: 33% in 4 years (8%/year); first decompensation to ≥2 decompensations: 48% in 2 years. Albumin, bilirubin, non-bleeding esophageal varices and diabetes were independent predictors of decompensation. Among the 575 deaths, 6% were liver related. Therapeutic trials in compensated cirrhosis would require enrolment of a minimum of 2,886 individuals followed for >2 years to detect at least a 15% relative decrease in liver-related endpoints.ConclusionIn this population-based cohort with 23 years of longitudinal follow-up, NAFLD was slowly progressive, with liver-related outcomes affecting only a small proportion of people. Large sample sizes and long follow-up are required to detect reductions in liver-related endpoints in clinical trials.Lay summaryFor patients with compensated non-alcoholic steatohepatitis-related cirrhosis, the time spent in this state and the risk of progression to decompensation are not well-known in the population. We examined the clinical course of a large population-based cohort over 23 years of follow-up. We identified that adults with compensated cirrhosis spend a mean time of 4 years in this state and have a 10% per year risk of progression to decompensation or death. The risk of further progression is 3-fold higher in adults with cirrhosis and one decompensating event. These results are reflective of placebo arm risks in drug clinical trials and are essential in the estimation of adequate sample sizes.

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Heterogeneity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: Implications for clinical practice and research activity.

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