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A novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The long-term outcomes for patients after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have been received more and more concern. The existing prediction models are mostly focused on in-hospital operative mortality after CABG, but there is still little research on long-term mortality prediction model for patients after CABG.

Objective

To develop and validate a novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after CABG.

Methods

Data for developing novel predictive model were extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive cart III (MIMIC-III), of which 2929 critically ill patients who underwent CABG at the first admission were enrolled.

Results

A novel prognostic nomogram for 3-year mortality was constructed with the seven independent prognostic factors, including age, congestive heart failure, white blood cell, creatinine, SpO₂, anion gap, and continuous renal replacement treatment derived from the multivariable logistic regression. The nomogram indicated accurate discrimination in primary (AUC: 0.81) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.802), which were better than traditional severity scores. And good consistency between the predictive and observed outcome was showed by the calibration curve for 3-year mortality. The decision curve analysis also showed higher clinical net benefit than traditional severity scores.

Conclusion

The novel nomogram had well performance to predict 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after CABG. The prediction model provided valuable information for treatment strategy and postdischarge management, which may be helpful in improving the long-term prognosis in critically ill patients after CABG.

SUBMITTER: Zhang H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8638264 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundCoronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is associated with both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and non-CVD traits. In addition, women's prognosis after coronary events and revascularizations is worse than in men. As the course of CVD in women differs from that of men, we performed a phenome-wide analysis on the sex differences in CABG -related morbidity and mortality.Materials and methodsWe performed an untargeted analysis on the sex differences in predictors and outcomes of CABG. We studied a sample of 176,680 FinnGen participants, including 5,950 individuals who underwent CABG (4,988 men and 962 women) and were followed between 1998 and 2019. Over 1,100 different traits were analyzed for both sexes and the results were adjusted with age, smoking status and BMI. Cox proportional hazards models with sex-trait interactions were used to estimate the associations between (1) traits and incident CABG; and (2) CABG and incident traits.ResultsIn women, CABG was more strongly related to greater increases in risk of diseases such as hypertension, Alzheimer's, aortic aneurysms, gout, and chronic kidney disease compared to risk increases observed in men (all interaction p-values < 0.03). After CABG, men had 2.5-fold (p = 3.1E-15) and women 6.3-fold (p = 9.4E-08) greater risk of cardiac death compared to same-sex individuals who did not undergo CABG (p for interaction 8.2E-4). Moreover, the risk of death in women remained higher even 12 years after CABG, whereas the long-term risk of death in men was not increased, compared to same-sex individuals who did not undergo CABG.ConclusionThe adverse outcomes after CABG, both quantity and quality, also appear to differ between men and women. In women, CABG is related to greater long-term increases in risk of cardiac death and several other disease states than in men. Consideration should therefore be given to whether women receive adequate long-term post-operative therapy and follow-up as CABG is not associated with equally improved cardiovascular disease prognosis in women than in men.