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HIV incidence, viremia, and the national response in Eswatini: Two sequential population-based surveys.

ABSTRACT: With the highest HIV incidence and prevalence globally, the government of Eswatini started a substantial scale-up of HIV treatment and prevention services in 2011. Two sequential large population-based surveys were conducted before and after service expansion to assess the impact of the national response. Cross-sectional, household-based, nationally representative samples of adults, ages 18 to 49 years, were sampled in 2011 and 2016. We measured HIV prevalence, incidence (recent infection based on limiting antigen ≤1.5 optical density units and HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/mL), viral load suppression (HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL among all seropositive adults) and unsuppressed viremia (HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/mL among all, regardless of HIV status) and assessed for temporal changes by conducting a trend analysis of the log ratio of proportions, using a Z statistic distribution. HIV prevalence remained stable from 2011 to 2016 [32% versus 30%, p = 0.10]. HIV incidence significantly declined 48% [2.48% versus 1.30%, p = 0.01]. Incidence remained higher among women than men [2011: 3.16% versus 1.83%; 2016: 1.76% versus 0.86%], with a smaller but significant relative reduction among women [44%; p = 0.04] than men [53%; p = 0.09]. The proportion of seropositive adults with viral load suppression significantly increased from 35% to 71% [p < .001]. The proportion of the total adult population with unsuppressed viremia decreased from 21% to 9% [p < .001]. National HIV incidence in Eswatini decreased by nearly half and viral load suppression doubled over a five-year period. Unsuppressed viremia in the total population decreased 58%. These population-based findings demonstrate the national impact of expanded HIV services in a hyperendemic country.

SUBMITTER: Nkambule R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8639055 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundTo stem the HIV epidemic among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), prevention programs must target services towards those most at risk for HIV. This paper investigates approaches to estimate HIV risk and map the spatial heterogeneity of at-risk populations in three countries: Eswatini, Haiti and Mozambique.MethodsWe analyzed HIV biomarker and risk factor data from recent population-based household surveys. We characterized risk using three approaches: complementary log-log regression, latent class analysis (LCA), and presence of at least one risk factor. We calculated the proportion and 95 percent confidence intervals of HIV-negative AGYW at risk across the three methods and employed Chi-square tests to investigate associations between risk classification and HIV status. Using geolocated survey data at enumeration clusters and high-resolution satellite imagery, we applied algorithms to predict the number and proportion of at-risk AGYW at hyperlocal levels.ResultsThe any-risk approach yielded the highest proportion of at-risk and HIV-negative AGYW across five-year age bands: 26%-49% in Eswatini, 52%-67% in Haiti, and 32%-84% in Mozambique. Using LCA, between 8%-16% of AGYW in Eswatini, 37%-62% in Haiti, and 56%-80% in Mozambique belonged to a high vulnerability profile. In Haiti and Mozambique, the regression-based profile yielded the lowest estimate of at-risk AGYW. In general, AGYW characterized as "at risk" across the three methods had significantly higher odds of HIV infection. Hyperlocal maps indicated high levels of spatial heterogeneity in HIV risk prevalence and population density of at-risk AGYW within countries.ConclusionCharacterizing risk among AGYW can help HIV prevention programs better understand the differential effect of multiple risk factors, facilitate early identification of high-risk AGYW, and design tailored interventions. Hyperlocal mapping of these at-risk populations can help program planners target prevention interventions to geographic areas with populations at greatest risk for HIV to achieve maximal impact on HIV incidence reduction.

Project description:BackgroundThe rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals over the last decade has sparked considerable debate as to whether universal test and treat can end the HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to develop a network transmission model, calibrated to capture age-specific and sex-specific gaps in the scale-up of ART, to estimate the historical and future effect of attaining and surpassing the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets on HIV-1 incidence and mortality, and to assess whether these interventions will be enough to achieve epidemic control (incidence of 1 infection per 1000 person-years) by 2030.MethodsWe used eSwatini (formerly Swaziland) as a case study to develop our model. We used data on HIV prevalence by 5-year age bins, sex, and year from the 2007 Swaziland Demographic Health Survey (SDHS), the 2011 Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey, and the 2016 Swaziland Population Health Impact Assessment (PHIA) survey. We estimated the point prevalence of ART coverage among all HIV-infected individuals by age, sex, and year. Age-specific data on the prevalence of male circumcision from the SDHS and PHIA surveys were used as model inputs for traditional male circumcision and scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). We calibrated our model using publicly available data on demographics; HIV prevalence by 5-year age bins, sex, and year; and ART coverage by age, sex, and year. We modelled the effects of five scenarios (historical scale-up of ART and VMMC [status quo], no ART or VMMC, no ART, age-targeted 90-90-90, and 100% ART initiation) to quantify the contribution of ART scale-up to declines in HIV incidence and mortality in individuals aged 15-49 by 2016, 2030, and 2050.FindingsBetween 2010 and 2016, status-quo ART scale-up among adults (aged 15-49 years) in eSwatini (from 34·0% in 2010 to 74·1% in 2016) reduced HIV incidence by 43·57% (95% credible interval 39·71 to 46·36) and HIV mortality by 56·17% (54·06 to 58·92) among individuals aged 15-49 years, with larger reductions in incidence among men and mortality among women. Holding 2016 ART coverage levels by age and sex into the future, by 2030 adult HIV incidence would fall to 1·09 (0·87 to 1·29) per 100 person-years, 1·42 (1·13 to 1·71) per 100 person-years among women and 0·79 (0·63 to 0·94) per 100 person-years among men. Achieving the 90-90-90 targets evenly by age and sex would further reduce incidence beyond status-quo ART, primarily among individuals aged 15-24 years (an additional 17·37% [7·33 to 26·12] reduction between 2016 and 2030), with only modest additional incidence reductions in adults aged 35-49 years (1·99% [-5·09 to 7·74]). Achieving 100% ART initiation among all people living with HIV within an average of 6 months from infection-an upper bound of plausible treatment effect-would reduce adult HIV incidence to 0·73 infections (0·55 to 0·92) per 100 person-years by 2030 and 0·46 (0·33 to 0·59) per 100 person-years by 2050.InterpretationScale-up of ART over the last decade has already contributed to substantial reductions in HIV-1 incidence and mortality in eSwatini. Focused ART targeting would further reduce incidence, especially in younger individuals, but even the most aggressive treatment campaigns would be insufficient to end the epidemic in high-burden settings without a renewed focus on expanding preventive measures.FundingGlobal Good Fund and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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HIV incidence, viremia, and the national response in Eswatini: Two sequential population-based surveys.

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