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Prediction of Masked Hypertension and Masked Uncontrolled Hypertension Using Machine Learning.

ABSTRACT: Objective: This study aimed to develop machine learning-based prediction models to predict masked hypertension and masked uncontrolled hypertension using the clinical characteristics of patients at a single outpatient visit. Methods: Data were derived from two cohorts in Taiwan. The first cohort included 970 hypertensive patients recruited from six medical centers between 2004 and 2005, which were split into a training set (n = 679), a validation set (n = 146), and a test set (n = 145) for model development and internal validation. The second cohort included 416 hypertensive patients recruited from a single medical center between 2012 and 2020, which was used for external validation. We used 33 clinical characteristics as candidate variables to develop models based on logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGboost), and artificial neural network (ANN). Results: The four models featured high sensitivity and high negative predictive value (NPV) in internal validation (sensitivity = 0.914-1.000; NPV = 0.853-1.000) and external validation (sensitivity = 0.950-1.000; NPV = 0.875-1.000). The RF, XGboost, and ANN models showed much higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0.799-0.851 in internal validation, 0.672-0.837 in external validation) than the LR model. Among the models, the RF model, composed of 6 predictor variables, had the best overall performance in both internal and external validation (AUC = 0.851 and 0.837; sensitivity = 1.000 and 1.000; specificity = 0.609 and 0.580; NPV = 1.000 and 1.000; accuracy = 0.766 and 0.721, respectively). Conclusion: An effective machine learning-based predictive model that requires data from a single clinic visit may help to identify masked hypertension and masked uncontrolled hypertension.

SUBMITTER: Hung MH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8639874 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Abstract Aims The detection of white-coat hypertension/white-coat uncontrolled hypertension (WCH/WUCH) with out-of-office blood pressure (BP) monitoring is time- and resource-consuming. We aim to develop a machine learning (ML)-derived prediction model based on the characteristics of patients from a single outpatient visit. Methods and results Data from two cohorts in Taiwan were used. Cohort one (970 patients) was used for development and internal validation, and cohort two (464 patients) was used for external validation. WCH/WUCH was defined as an office BP of ≥140/90 mmHg and daytime ambulatory BP of <135/85 mmHg in treatment-naïve or treated individuals. Logistic regression, random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and artificial neural network models were trained using 26 patient parameters. We used SHapley Additive exPlanations values to provide explanations for the risk factors. All models achieved great area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), specificity, and negative predictive value in both validations (AUROC = 0.754–0.891; specificity = 0.682–0.910; negative predictive value = 0.831–0.968). The RF model was the best performing (AUROC = 0.884; sensitivity = 0.619; specificity = 0.887; negative predictive value = 0.872; accuracy = 0.819). The five most influential features of the RF model were office diastolic BP, office systolic BP, current smoker, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and fasting glucose level. Conclusion Our prediction models achieved good performance, underlining the feasibility of applying ML models to outpatient populations for the diagnosis of WCH and WUCH. Further validation with other prospective data sets should be considered in the future. Graphical Abstract Graphical Abstract Two cohorts were used for model development after splitting and external validation respectively. With oversampled training set, four algorithms were developed through the process of feature ranking with SHapley Additive exPlantions values, feature selection, and threshold tuning under five-fold cross-validation. Models were then evaluated by variant metrics. Present study demonstrated the feasibility of applying machine learning models to outpatient population for the identify of white-coat hypertension and white-coat uncontrolled hypertension. ANN, artificial neural network; AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; LR, logistic regression; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; RF, random forest; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; SBP, systolic blood pressure; Sen, sensitivity; SHAP, SHapley Additive exPlanations; Spe, specificity; WCH/WUCH, white-coat hypertension/white-coat uncontrolled hypertension; XGboost, eXtreme Gradient Boosting.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Prognostication is an essential tool for risk adjustment and decision making in the intensive care unit (ICU). Research into prognostication in ICU has so far been limited to data from admission or the first 24 hours. Most ICU admissions last longer than this, decisions are made throughout an admission, and some admissions are explicitly intended as time-limited prognostic trials. Despite this, temporal changes in prognostic ability during ICU admission has received little attention to date. Current predictive models, in the form of prognostic clinical tools, are typically derived from linear models and do not explicitly handle incremental information from trends. Machine learning (ML) allows predictive models to be developed which use non-linear predictors and complex interactions between variables, thus allowing incorporation of trends in measured variables over time; this has made it possible to investigate prognosis throughout an admission. METHODS AND FINDINGS:This study uses ML to assess the predictability of ICU mortality as a function of time. Logistic regression against physiological data alone outperformed APACHE-II and demonstrated several important interactions including between lactate & noradrenaline dose, between lactate & MAP, and between age & MAP consistent with the current sepsis definitions. ML models consistently outperformed logistic regression with Deep Learning giving the best results. Predictive power was maximal on the second day and was further improved by incorporating trend data. Using a limited range of physiological and demographic variables, the best machine learning model on the first day showed an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.883 (σ = 0.008), compared to 0.846 (σ = 0.010) for a logistic regression from the same predictors and 0.836 (σ = 0.007) for a logistic regression based on the APACHE-II score. Adding information gathered on the second day of admission improved the maximum AUC to 0.895 (σ = 0.008). Beyond the second day, predictive ability declined. CONCLUSION:This has implications for decision making in intensive care and provides a justification for time-limited trials of ICU therapy; the assessment of prognosis over more than one day may be a valuable strategy as new information on the second day helps to differentiate outcomes. New ML models based on trend data beyond the first day could greatly improve upon current risk stratification tools.

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Prediction of Masked Hypertension and Masked Uncontrolled Hypertension Using Machine Learning.

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