Dataset Information

Maternal stress and sex ratio at birth in Sweden over two and a half centuries: a retest of the Trivers-Willard hypothesis.

ABSTRACT:

Study question

Is there a negative relationship, as predicted in the Trivers-Willard hypothesis (TWH), between the intensity of maternal stress and sex ratio at birth (SRB)?

Summary answer

Using a comprehensive data set with multiple indicators of maternal stress, most measures of stress show no statistically significant association with SRB over a period spanning 243 years, indicating no support for the TWH.

What is known already

Evolutionary biologists have proposed a widely discussed hypothesis that women in poor and stressful conditions during pregnancy are more likely to give birth to girls, and exposure to stressful events may therefore lead to a reduction in sex (male-to-female) ratio at birth. The empirical evidence so far is mixed.

Study design, size, duration

Annual time series data, spanning 243 years between 1749 and 1991 for Sweden at the national level, were drawn from multiple sources. The outcome is defined as the percentage of male births relative to all births in Sweden in a given year. The covariates include a set of economic and climatic variables as proxies for maternal stress.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

We conduct a series of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models to examine the relationship between maternal stress and SRB during three periods: 1749-1991, 1749-1861 and 1862-1991.

Main results and the role of chance

In 1749-1991, economic proxies for maternal stress showed no statistically significant association with SRB. In 1749-1861, two indicators were significantly associated with SRB, but the coefficients were opposite in direction to the TWH. In 1862-1991, five out of six covariates showed no significant association with SRB. An additional analysis found no significant correlation between sex ratio of stillbirths and all covariates in 1862-1991. Our results are incompatible with the TWH and suggest that previous findings in support of the TWH are not robust.

Limitations, reasons for caution

This study provides population-level evidence that may not necessarily reflect the nature of all individuals due to the ecological fallacy. The time series analysed in this study are annual data, and we cannot examine the potential seasonality due to the lack of disaggregated monthly data. Our findings may not be generalised to the contexts of extreme maternal stress conditions such as famine and war.

Wider implications of the findings

The results from existing studies in this topic may be speculative, and additional research with more comprehensive design, data and covariates is needed to reconsider the robustness of previous findings.

Study funding/competing interest(s)

The author receives no external funding and has no conflict of interest to declare.

Trial registration number

N/A.

SUBMITTER: Wu H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8648295 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The Trivers-Willard hypothesis (TWH) states that parents in good condition tend to bias their offspring sex ratio toward the sex with a higher variation in reproductive value, whereas parents in bad condition favor the opposite sex. Although the TWH has been generalized to predict various Trivers-Willard effects (TWE) depending on the life cycle of a species, existing work does not sufficiently acknowledge that sex-specific reproductive values depend on the relative abundances of males and females in the population. If parents adjust their offspring sex ratio according to the TWE, offspring reproductive values will also change. This should affect the long-term evolutionary dynamics and might lead to considerable deviations from the original predictions. In this paper, I model the full evolutionary dynamics of the TWE, using a published two-sex integral projection model for the Columbian ground squirrel (Urocitellus columbianus). Offspring sex ratio is treated as a nonparametric continuous function of maternal condition. Evolutionary change is treated as the successive invasion of mutant strategies. The simulation is performed with varying starting conditions until an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) is reached. The results show that the magnitude of the evolving TWE can be far greater than previously predicted. Furthermore, evolutionary dynamics show considerable nonlinearities before settling at an ESS. The nonlinear effects depend on the starting conditions and indicate that evolutionary change is fastest when starting at an extremely biased sex ratio and that evolutionary change is weaker for parents of high condition. The results show neither a tendency to maximize average population fitness nor to minimize the deviation between offspring sex ratio and offspring reproductive value ratio. The study highlights the importance of dynamic feedback in models of natural selection and provides a new methodological framework for analyzing the evolution of continuous strategies in structured populations.

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