Exploring whether wireless emergency alerts can help impede the spread of Covid‐19
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bean H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8652481 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:This paper proposes control strategies to allocate COVID-19 patients to screening facilities, health facilities, and quarantine facilities for minimizing the spread of the virus by these patients. To calculate the transmission rate, we propose a function that accounts for contact rate, duration of the contact, age structure of the population, susceptibility to infection, and the number of transmission events per contact. Moreover, the COVID-19 cases are divided into different groups according to the severity of their disease and are allocated to appropriate health facilities that provide care tailored to their needs. The multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming approach is applied to cope with uncertainty, in which the probability associated with nodes of the scenario tree is treated as fuzzy variables. To handle the probabilistic model, we use a more flexible measure, Me measure, which allows decision-makers to adopt varying attitudes by assigning the optimistic-pessimistic parameter. This measure does not force decision-makers to hold extreme views and obtain the interval solution that provides further information in the fuzzy environment. We apply the proposed model to the case of Tehran, Iran. The results of this study indicate that assigning patients to appropriate medical centers improves the performance of the healthcare system. The result analysis highlights the impact of the demographic differences on virus transmission, and the older population has a greater influence on virus transmission than other age groups. Besides, the results indicate that behavioral changes in the population and their vaccination play a key role in curbing COVID-19 transmission.
| S-EPMC8592648 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWireless emergency alerts (WEAs), which deliver disaster information directly to individuals' mobile phones, have been widely used to provide information related to COVID-19 and to encourage compliance with social distancing guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The floating population refers to the number of people temporarily staying in a specific area, and this demographic data can be a useful indicator to understand the level of social distancing people are complying with during the COVID-19 pandemic.ObjectiveThis study aimed to empirically analyze the impact of WEAs on the floating population where WEAs were transmitted in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. As most WEA messages focus on compliance with the government's social distancing guidelines, one of the goals of transmitting WEAs during the COVID-19 pandemic is to control the floating population at an appropriate level.MethodsWe investigated the empirical impact of WEAs on the floating population across 25 districts in Seoul by estimating a panel regression model at the district-hour level with a series of fixed effects. The main independent variables were the number of instant WEAs, the daily cumulative number of WEAs, the total cumulative number of WEAs, and information extracted from WEAs by natural language processing at the district-hour level. The data set provided a highly informative empirical setting as WEAs were sent by different local governments with various identifiable district-hour-level data.ResultsThe estimates of the impact of WEAs on the floating population were significantly negative (-0.013, P=.02 to -0.014, P=.01) across all specifications, implying that an additional WEA issuance reduced the floating population by 1.3% (=100(1-e-0.013)) to 1.4% (=100(1-e-0.014)). Although the coefficients of DCN (the daily cumulative number of WEAs) were also negative (-0.0034, P=.34 to -0.0052, P=.15) across all models, they were not significant. The impact of WEAs on the floating population doubled (-0.025, P=.02 to -0.033, P=.005) when the first 82 days of observations were used as subsamples to reduce the possibility of people blocking WEAs.ConclusionsOur results suggest that issuing WEAs and distributing information related to COVID-19 to a specific district was associated with a decrease in the floating population of that district. Furthermore, among the various types of information in the WEAs, location information was the only significant type of information that was related to a decrease in the floating population. This study makes important contributions. First, this study measured the impact of WEAs in a highly informative empirical setting. Second, this study adds to the existing literature on the mechanisms by which WEAs can affect public response. Lastly, this study has important implications for making optimal WEAs and suggests that location information should be included.
| S-EPMC10964982 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe potential ability for weather to affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission has been an area of controversial discussion during the COVID-19 pandemic. Individuals' perceptions of the impact of weather can inform their adherence to public health guidelines; however, there is no measure of their perceptions. We quantified Twitter users' perceptions of the effect of weather and analyzed how they evolved with respect to real-world events and time.Materials and methodsWe collected 166,005 English tweets posted between January 23 and June 22, 2020 and employed machine learning/natural language processing techniques to filter for relevant tweets, classify them by the type of effect they claimed, and identify topics of discussion.ResultsWe identified 28,555 relevant tweets and estimate that 40.4 % indicate uncertainty about weather's impact, 33.5 % indicate no effect, and 26.1 % indicate some effect. We tracked changes in these proportions over time. Topic modeling revealed major latent areas of discussion.DiscussionThere is no consensus among the public for weather's potential impact. Earlier months were characterized by tweets that were uncertain of weather's effect or claimed no effect; later, the portion of tweets claiming some effect of weather increased. Tweets claiming no effect of weather comprised the largest class by June. Major topics of discussion included comparisons to influenza's seasonality, President Trump's comments on weather's effect, and social distancing.ConclusionWe exhibit a research approach that is effective in measuring population perceptions and identifying misconceptions, which can inform public health communications.
| S-EPMC7654388 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Abstract This paper documents that a large-scale government subsidy aimed at encouraging people to eat out in restaurants in the wake of the first 2020 COVID-19 wave in the United Kingdom has had a significant causal impact on new cases, accelerating the subsequent second COVID-19 wave. The scheme subsidised 50% off the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks for an unlimited number of visits in participating restaurants on Mondays–Wednesdays from 3–31 August 2020. Areas with higher take-up saw both a notable increase in new COVID-19 infection clusters within a week of the scheme starting and a deceleration in infections within two weeks of the program ending. Similarly, areas that exhibited notable rainfall during the prime lunch and dinner hours on the days the scheme was active record lower infection incidence—a pattern that is also measurable in mobility data—and non-detectable on days during which the discount was not available or for rainfall outside the core lunch and dinner hours.
| S-EPMC8574521 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRegions are considering the use of electronic registries to track patients who carry antibiotic-resistant bacteria, including carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). Implementing such a registry can be challenging and requires time, effort, and resources; therefore, there is a need to better understand the potential impact.MethodsWe developed an agent-based model of all inpatient healthcare facilities (90 acute care hospitals, 9 long-term acute care hospitals, 351 skilled nursing facilities, and 12 ventilator-capable skilled nursing facilities) in the Chicago metropolitan area, surrounding communities, and patient flow using our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst software platform. Scenarios explored the impact of a registry that tracked patients carrying CRE to help guide infection prevention and control.ResultsWhen all Illinois facilities participated (n = 402), the registry reduced the number of new carriers by 11.7% and CRE prevalence by 7.6% over a 3-year period. When 75% of the largest Illinois facilities participated (n = 304), registry use resulted in a 11.6% relative reduction in new carriers (16.9% and 1.2% in participating and nonparticipating facilities, respectively) and 5.0% relative reduction in prevalence. When 50% participated (n = 201), there were 10.7% and 5.6% relative reductions in incident carriers and prevalence, respectively. When 25% participated (n = 101), there was a 9.1% relative reduction in incident carriers (20.4% and 1.6% in participating and nonparticipating facilities, respectively) and 2.8% relative reduction in prevalence.ConclusionsImplementing an extensively drug-resistant organism registry reduced CRE spread, even when only 25% of the largest Illinois facilities participated due to patient sharing. Nonparticipating facilities garnered benefits, with reductions in new carriers.
| S-EPMC7931833 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Closing schools to control COVID-19 transmission has been globally debated, with concerns about children's education and well-being, and also because of the varied effectiveness of the intervention in studies across the world. This paper aims to determine the effect of school closure policy on the incidence of COVID-19 in Pakistan. A Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analysis compared changes in COVID-19 incidence across cities that completely (Islamabad) and partially (Peshawar) closed schools during the second wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan. Effects of closing (November 2020) and reopening schools (February 2021) were assessed in Islamabad and Peshawar 10 and 20 days after policy implementation. In Islamabad, there was a greater decline in cases than in Peshawar when schools closed. After 10-days, the average reduction of daily COVID-19 incidence in Islamabad was lower by 89 cases (95% CI: -196, 18), due to complete school closure, with a relative reduction of 125 cases (95% CI: -191, -59) compared to Peshawar. Similarly, the relative increase in Islamabad after schools re-opened was 107 cases (95% CI: 46, 167) compared to Peshawar. After 20-days, the average daily COVID-19 incidence in both cities declined after school were closed (Islamabad: -81 [95% CI: -150, -13] versus Peshawar: -80 [95% CI: -148, -12]). COVID-19 incidence appeared to decline after schools reopened as well (Islamabad: -116 [95% CI: -230, -3] versus Peshawar: -30 [95% CI: -124, 63]). However, Peshawar's decline is not statistically significant. These results control for changes in testing as well as a daily time trend. The magnitude and speed of reduction in cases with a complete school closure, and a similar but reverse trend of increasing cases upon reopening, suggests that closing schools reduces COVID-19 transmission in communities. However, there are learning-loss and well-being costs for children and their parents.
| S-EPMC10021268 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number ([Formula: see text] = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.
| S-EPMC7229754 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 outburst initiated from the city of Wuhan in China in December 2019 and has been declared as a public health emergency of international concern. This pandemic portrays a spectrum of clinical complications, primarily affecting the respiratory system reported to be caused by a pathogen SARS-CoV-2 belonging to the family of beta coronavirus. Currently, the main objective of the government authorities of all affected countries and research organizations is to find a potential solution in the form of a pharmacological intervention or a vaccination to eradicate the disease and to have a long-term solution to deal with the pandemic. A multitude of anti-viral regimens is proposed based on the repurposing of currently available drugs for other issues or the compassionate use of drugs to immediately control and optimize the healthcare facilities. Meanwhile, a number of agencies are proposing new drug candidates to recreate the possibility of treating the disease. Similarly, a lot of research work is going on worldwide for the development of vaccination. Currently, a good number of candidates has finally reached the borders of Clinical Trials and are expected to be launched as soon as possible. However, the regulatory framework and authorization of these candidates is the most significant aspect of the whole scenario, which needs a specific set of time for validation purposes. The present work is widely focused on the general aspects of COVID-19 and the regulatory landscape for the emergency authorization of repurposed drug candidates, compassionate use of drugs, investigational entities, and vaccine development worldwide.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13337-021-00684-5.
| S-EPMC8096892 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo prevent the spread of infection in Korea during the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, real-time warnings have been sent to all residents via mobile phones. This study examined the factors associated with the negative emotional response to media news and emergency text alerts in the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsA survey was completed by 1,500 adults from an online public panel in three regions. We used Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), generalized anxiety disorder-7 (GAD-7) and Perceived Stress Scale-10 (PSS-10) to assess the level of depression, anxiety and stress, respectively. Questionnaires related to COVID-19 included fear of infection, and fear of disclose of contact-tracing information.ResultsThe negative emotional response on both news media information and emergency alert text messages about COVID-19 was associated with fear of COVID-19 infection and high anxiety. The biggest outbreak city, Daegu was associated with the less negative emotional response on emergency alert text messages. Fear of disclose of contact-tracing information was significantly associated with negative emotional perception on emergency alter text messages.ConclusionOur results suggest that effective information providing services with considering vulnerable groups are needed to promote acceptance and eliminate negative emotion for disease related information.
| S-EPMC8473856 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this study, we investigated the symptoms of physical and mental health associated with lifestyle changes due to a lockdown among the students of a university in Northern Italy, one of the most affected areas in Europe during the first wave of COVID-19. We examined the psychopathological variations in relation to mental health problems in a young population. The goal was to develop interventions to resolve these new psychosocial problems. From June to July 2020, students participated in an anonymous survey asking about habits and symptoms that emerged during the lockdown and the COVID-19 pandemic. Five health outcomes were assessed: digestive disorders; headaches; fear of COVID-19; panic and anxiety crises; and depression/sadness. The conditions and duration of the social isolation, lifestyle, SARS-CoV-2 infection in the household, financial situation, and productivity were considered in the analysis. A total of 3533 students completed the survey. The participants experienced headaches, depression and sadness, digestive disorders, a fear of COVID-19, and anxiety/panic crises. The duration of isolation was associated with an increased risk of digestive disorders, headaches, and COVID-19 fear. The female gender, medium-intense telephone usage, sleep quality, memory difficulties, and performance reduction were associated with an increased risk of the health outcomes. Future interventions should focus on promoting and implementing different habits with the support of health and university organizations.
| S-EPMC9318913 | biostudies-literature