Dataset Information

Under-reporting of COVID-19 in the Northern Health Authority region of British Columbia.

ABSTRACT: Asymptomatic and pauci-symptomatic presentations of COVID-19 along with restrictive testing protocols result in undetected COVID-19 cases. Estimating undetected cases is crucial to understanding the true severity of the outbreak. We introduce a new hierarchical disease dynamics model based on the N-mixtures hidden population framework. The new models make use of three sets of disease count data per region: reported cases, recoveries and deaths. Treating the first two as under-counted through binomial thinning, we model the true population state at each time point by partitioning the diseased population into the active, recovered and died categories. Both domestic spread and imported cases are considered. These models are applied to estimate the level of under-reporting of COVID-19 in the Northern Health Authority region of British Columbia, Canada, during 30 weeks of the provincial recovery plan. Parameter covariates are easily implemented and used to improve model estimates. We compare two distinct methods of model-fitting for this case study: (1) maximum likelihood estimation, and (2) Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo. The two methods agreed exactly in their estimates of under-reporting rate. When accounting for changes in weekly testing volumes, we found under-reporting rates varying from 60.2% to 84.2%.

SUBMITTER: Parker MRP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8653369 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Under-reporting of COVID-19 in the Northern Health Authority region of British Columbia.

Parker Matthew R P MRP Li Yangming Y Elliott Lloyd T LT Ma Junling J Cowen Laura L E LLE

The Canadian journal of statistics = Revue canadienne de statistique 20211101 4

Asymptomatic and pauci-symptomatic presentations of COVID-19 along with restrictive testing protocols result in undetected COVID-19 cases. Estimating undetected cases is crucial to understanding the true severity of the outbreak. We introduce a new hierarchical disease dynamics model based on the <i>N</i>-mixtures hidden population framework. The new models make use of three sets of disease count data per region: reported cases, recoveries and deaths. Treating the first two as under-counted thro ...[more]

PMID: 34898817

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Project description:BackgroundClose-contact rates are thought to be a driving force behind the transmission of many infectious respiratory diseases. Yet, contact rates and their relation to transmission and the impact of control measures, are seldom quantified. We quantify the response of contact rates, reported cases and transmission of COVID-19, to public health contact-restriction orders, and examine the associations among these three variables in the province of British Columbia, Canada.MethodsWe derived time series data for contact rates, daily cases and transmission of COVID-19 from a social contacts survey, reported case counts and by fitting a transmission model to reported cases, respectively. We used segmented regression to investigate impacts of public health orders; Pearson correlation to determine associations between contact rates and transmission; and vector autoregressive modeling to quantify lagged associations between contacts rates, daily cases, and transmission.ResultsDeclines in contact rates and transmission occurred concurrently with the announcement of public health orders, whereas declines in cases showed a reporting delay of about 2 weeks. Contact rates were a significant driver of COVID-19 and explained roughly 19 and 20% of the variation in new cases and transmission, respectively. Interestingly, increases in COVID-19 transmission and cases were followed by reduced contact rates: overall, daily cases explained about 10% of the variation in subsequent contact rates.ConclusionWe showed that close-contact rates were a significant time-series driver of transmission and ultimately of reported cases of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada and that they varied in response to public health orders. Our results also suggest possible behavioral feedback, by which increased reported cases lead to reduced subsequent contact rates. Our findings help to explain and validate the commonly assumed, but rarely measured, response of close contact rates to public health guidelines and their impact on the dynamics of infectious diseases.

Project description:ObjectivesTo describe how physicians were engaged in primary healthcare system change in a remote and rural Canadian health authority.DesignA qualitative interpretive study based on a hermeneutic approach.Methods34 transcribed in-depth interviews with physicians and administrators relevant to physician engagement were purposively sampled from a larger data set of 239 interviews gathered over a 3-year period from seven communities engaged in primary healthcare transformation. Interviews were coded and analysed interpretively to develop common themes.SettingThis research is part of a larger study, Partnering for Change I, which investigated the efforts of Northern Health, a rural regional health authority in British Columbia, to transform its healthcare system to one grounded in primary care with a focus on interdisciplinary teams. It reports how physician engagement was accomplished during the first 3 years of the study.ParticipantsInterviews with 34 individuals with direct involvement and experience in the processes of physician engagement. These included 10 physicians, three Regional Executives, 18 Primary Healthcare coordinators and three Division of Family Practice leads.ResultsThree major interconnected themes that depicted the process of engagement were identified: working through tensions constructively, drawing on structures for engagement and facilitating relationships.ConclusionsPhysician engagement was recognised as a priority by Northern Health in its efforts to create system change. This was facilitated by the creation of Divisions of Family Practice that provided a structure for dialogue and facilitated a common voice for physicians. Divisions helped to build trust between various groups through allowing constructive conversations to surface and deal with tensions. Local context mattered. Flexibility in working from local priorities was a critical part of developing relationships that facilitated the design and implementation of system reform.

Project description:PurposeSeveral non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing, handwashing, self-isolation, and school and business closures, were implemented in British Columbia (BC) following the first laboratory-confirmed case of COVID-19 on 26 January 2020, to minimise in-person contacts that could spread infections. The BC COVID-19 Population Mixing Patterns Survey (BC-Mix) was established as a surveillance system to measure behaviour and contact patterns in BC over time to inform the timing of the easing/re-imposition of control measures. In this paper, we describe the BC-Mix survey design and the demographic characteristics of respondents.ParticipantsThe ongoing repeated online survey was launched in September 2020. Participants are mainly recruited through social media platforms (including Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp). A follow-up survey is sent to participants 2-4 weeks after completing the baseline survey. Survey responses are weighted to BC's population by age, sex, geography and ethnicity to obtain generalisable estimates. Additional indices such as the Material and Social Deprivation Index, residential instability, economic dependency, and others are generated using census and location data.Findings to dateAs of 26 July 2021, over 61 000 baseline survey responses were received of which 41 375 were eligible for analysis. Of the eligible participants, about 60% consented to follow-up and about 27% provided their personal health numbers for linkage with healthcare databases. Approximately 83.5% of respondents were female, 58.7% were 55 years or older, 87.5% identified as white and 45.9% had at least a university degree. After weighting, approximately 50% were female, 39% were 55 years or older, 65% identified as white and 50% had at least a university degree.Future plansMultiple papers describing contact patterns, physical distancing measures, regular handwashing and facemask wearing, modelling looking at impact of physical distancing measures and vaccine acceptance, hesitancy and uptake are either in progress or have been published.

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Dataset Information

Under-reporting of COVID-19 in the Northern Health Authority region of British Columbia.

Publications

Under-reporting of COVID-19 in the Northern Health Authority region of British Columbia.

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