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God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks.


ABSTRACT: We measure the benefit to society created by preventing COVID-19 deaths through a marginal increase in early social distancing. We exploit county-level rainfall on the last weekend before statewide lockdown in the early phase of the pandemic. After controlling for historical rainfall, temperature, and state fixed-effects, current rainfall is a plausibly exogenous instrument for social distancing. A one percent decrease in the population leaving home on the weekend before lockdown creates an average of 132 dollars of benefit per county resident within 2 weeks. The impacts of earlier distancing compound over time and mainly arise from lowering the risk of a major outbreak, yielding large but unevenly distributed social benefit.

SUBMITTER: Shenoy A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8654737 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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