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Modelling the impact of fexinidazole use on human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

ABSTRACT: Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis is a deadly disease that has been declining in incidence since the start of the Century, primarily due to increased screening, diagnosis and treatment of infected people. The main treatment regimen currently in use requires a lumbar puncture as part of the diagnostic process to determine disease stage and hospital admission for drug administration. Fexinidazole is a new oral treatment for stage 1 and non-severe stage 2 human African trypanosomiasis. The World Health Organization has recently incorporated fexinidazole into its treatment guidelines for human African trypanosomiasis. The treatment does not require hospital admission or a lumbar puncture for all patients, which is likely to ease access for patients; however, it does require concomitant food intake, which is likely to reduce adherence. Here, we use a mathematical model calibrated to case and screening data from Mushie territory, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to explore the potential negative impact of poor compliance to an oral treatment, and potential gains to be made from increases in the rate at which patients seek treatment. We find that reductions in compliance in treatment of stage 1 cases are projected to result in the largest increase in further transmission of the disease, with failing to cure stage 2 cases also posing a smaller concern. Reductions in compliance may be offset by increases in the rate at which cases are passively detected. Efforts should therefore be made to ensure good adherence for stage 1 patients to treatment with fexinidazole and to improve access to care.

SUBMITTER: Das AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8659363 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a virulent disease declining in burden but still endemic in West and Central Africa. Although it is targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030, there remain numerous questions about the drivers of infection and how these vary geographically. In this study we focus on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounted for 84% of the global case burden in 2016, to explore changes in transmission across the country and elucidate factors which may have contributed to the persistence of disease or success of interventions in different regions. We present a Bayesian fitting methodology, applied to 168 endemic health zones (∼100,000 population size), which allows for calibration of a mechanistic gHAT model to case data (from the World Health Organization HAT Atlas) in an adaptive and automated framework. It was found that the model needed to capture improvements in passive detection to match observed trends in the data within former Bandundu and Bas Congo provinces indicating these regions have substantially reduced time to detection. Health zones in these provinces generally had longer burn-in periods during fitting due to additional model parameters. Posterior probability distributions were found for a range of fitted parameters in each health zone; these included the basic reproduction number estimates for pre-1998 (R0) which was inferred to be between 1 and 1.14, in line with previous gHAT estimates, with higher median values typically in health zones with more case reporting in the 2000s. Previously, it was not clear whether a fall in active case finding in the period contributed to the declining case numbers. The modelling here accounts for variable screening and suggests that underlying transmission has also reduced greatly-on average 96% in former Equateur, 93% in former Bas Congo and 89% in former Bandundu-Equateur and Bandundu having had the highest case burdens in 2000. This analysis also sets out a framework to enable future predictions for the country.

Project description:Over the past 20 years there has been a >95% reduction in the number of Gambian Human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) cases reported globally, largely as a result of large-scale active screening and treatment programmes. There are however still foci where the disease persists, particularly in parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Additional control efforts such as tsetse control using Tiny Targets may therefore be required to achieve g-HAT elimination goals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of Tiny Targets within DRC. In 2015-2017, pre- and post-intervention tsetse abundance data were collected from 1,234 locations across three neighbouring Health Zones (Yasa Bonga, Mosango, Masi Manimba). Remotely sensed dry season data were combined with pre-intervention tsetse presence/absence data from 332 locations within a species distribution modelling framework to produce a habitat suitability map. The impact of Tiny Targets on the tsetse population was then evaluated by fitting a generalised linear mixed model to the relative fly abundance data collected from 889 post-intervention monitoring sites within Yasa Bonga, with habitat suitability, proximity to the intervention and intervention duration as covariates. Immediately following the introduction of the intervention, we observe a dramatic reduction in fly catches by > 85% (pre-intervention: 0.78 flies/trap/day, 95% CI 0.676-0.900; 3 month post-intervention: 0.11 flies/trap/day, 95% CI 0.070-0.153) which is sustained throughout the study period. Declines in catches were negatively associated with proximity to Tiny Targets, and while habitat suitability is positively associated with abundance its influence is reduced in the presence of the intervention. This study adds to the body of evidence demonstrating the impact of Tiny Targets on tsetse across a range of ecological settings, and further characterises the factors which modify its impact. The habitat suitability maps have the potential to guide the expansion of tsetse control activities in this area.

Project description:Background: Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) is a protozoal disease transmitted by tsetse flies. Infection with trypanosomes can lead directly to active HAT or latent infection with no detectable parasites, which may progress to active HAT or to spontaneous self-cure. Genetic variation could explain these differences in the outcome of infection. To test this hypothesis, polymorphisms in 17 candidate genes were tested ( APOL1 [ G1 and G2], CFH, HLA-A, HPR, HP, IL1B, IL12B, IL12RB1, IL10, IL4R, MIF, TNFA , IL6, IL4, IL8, IFNG, and HLA-G). Methods: Samples were collected in Democratic Republic of the Congo. 233 samples were genotyped: 100 active HAT cases, 33 from subjects with latent infections and 100 negative controls. Commercial service providers genotyped polymorphisms at 96 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on 17 genes. Data were analyzed using Plink V1.9 software and R. Loci, with suggestive associations (uncorrected p < 0.05) validated using an additional 594 individuals, including 164 cases and 430 controls. Results: After quality control, 87 SNPs remained in the analysis. Two SNPs in IL4 and two in IFNG were suggestively associated (uncorrected p<0.05) with a differential risk of developing a Trypanosoma brucei gambiense infection in the Congolese population. The IFNG minor allele (rs2430561, rs2069718) SNPs were protective in comparison between latent infections and controls. Carriers of the rs2243258_T and rs2243279_A alleles of IL4 and the rs2069728_T allele of IFNG had a reduced risk of developing illness or latent infection, respectively. None of these associations were significant after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing. A validation study using more samples was run to determine if the absence of significant association was due to lack of power. Conclusions: This study showed no evidence of an association of HAT with IL4 and IFNG SNPs or with APOL1 G1 and G2 alleles, which have been found to be protective in other studies.

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Modelling the impact of fexinidazole use on human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

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