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Using different machine learning models to classify patients into mild and severe cases of COVID-19 based on multivariate blood testing.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 is a serious respiratory disease. The ever-increasing number of cases is causing heavier loads on the health service system. Using 38 blood test indicators on the first day of admission for the 422 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 (from January 2020 to June 2021) to construct different machine learning (ML) models to classify patients into either mild or severe cases of COVID-19. All models show good performance in the classification between COVID-19 patients into mild and severe disease. The area under the curve (AUC) of the random forest model is 0.89, the AUC of the naive Bayes model is 0.90, the AUC of the support vector machine model is 0.86, and the AUC of the KNN model is 0.78, the AUC of the Logistic regression model is 0.84, and the AUC of the artificial neural network model is 0.87, among which the naive Bayes model has the best performance. Different ML models can classify patients into mild and severe cases based on 38 blood test indicators taken on the first day of admission for patients diagnosed with COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Zhang RK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8661590 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using different machine learning models to classify patients into mild and severe cases of COVID-19 based on multivariate blood testing.

Zhang Rui-Kun RK Xiao Qi Q Zhu Sheng-Lang SL Lin Hai-Yan HY Tang Ming M

Journal of medical virology 20210925 1

COVID-19 is a serious respiratory disease. The ever-increasing number of cases is causing heavier loads on the health service system. Using 38 blood test indicators on the first day of admission for the 422 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 (from January 2020 to June 2021) to construct different machine learning (ML) models to classify patients into either mild or severe cases of COVID-19. All models show good performance in the classification between COVID-19 patients into mild and severe diseas ...[more]

PMID: 34542195

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Project description:In recent decades, the global incidence of dengue has increased. Affected countries have responded with more effective surveillance strategies to detect outbreaks early, monitor the trends, and implement prevention and control measures. We have applied newly developed machine learning approaches to identify laboratory-confirmed dengue cases from 4,894 emergency department patients with dengue-like illness (DLI) who received laboratory tests. Among them, 60.11% (2942 cases) were confirmed to have dengue. Using just four input variables [age, body temperature, white blood cells counts (WBCs) and platelets], not only the state-of-the-art deep neural network (DNN) prediction models but also the conventional decision tree (DT) and logistic regression (LR) models delivered performances with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves areas under curves (AUCs) of the ranging from 83.75% to 85.87% [for DT, DNN and LR: 84.60% ± 0.03%, 85.87% ± 0.54%, 83.75% ± 0.17%, respectively]. Subgroup analyses found all the models were very sensitive particularly in the pre-epidemic period. Pre-peak sensitivities (<35 weeks) were 92.6%, 92.9%, and 93.1% in DT, DNN, and LR respectively. Adjusted odds ratios examined with LR for low WBCs [≤ 3.2 (x103/μL)], fever (≥38°C), low platelet counts [< 100 (x103/μL)], and elderly (≥ 65 years) were 5.17 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.96-6.76], 3.17 [95%CI: 2.74-3.66], 3.10 [95%CI: 2.44-3.94], and 1.77 [95%CI: 1.50-2.10], respectively. Our prediction models can readily be used in resource-poor countries where viral/serologic tests are inconvenient and can also be applied for real-time syndromic surveillance to monitor trends of dengue cases and even be integrated with mosquito/environment surveillance for early warning and immediate prevention/control measures. In other words, a local community hospital/clinic with an instrument of complete blood counts (including platelets) can provide a sentinel screening during outbreaks. In conclusion, the machine learning approach can facilitate medical and public health efforts to minimize the health threat of dengue epidemics. However, laboratory confirmation remains the primary goal of surveillance and outbreak investigation.

Dataset Information

Using different machine learning models to classify patients into mild and severe cases of COVID-19 based on multivariate blood testing.

Publications

Using different machine learning models to classify patients into mild and severe cases of COVID-19 based on multivariate blood testing.

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