Dataset Information

The strategy of protest against Covid-19 containment policies in Germany.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The article analyzes the epidemiological and political logics of protest against containment policies in Germany. To maximize the mobilization potential, protest organizers organize more protest events when Covid-19 mortality rates are low, the stringency of containment policies is high, and in districts in which the vote share of mainstream parties is traditionally low.

Method

Using a negative binomial model, we analyze the number of protest events in a sample of 401 German districts over the period from March to May 2020.

Results

We find robust positive predicted effects of the stringency of containment policies and negative predicted effects for the mortality rate and the strengths of mainstream parties.

Conclusion

We interpret these findings as evidence of the strategic behavior of protest organizers that target protest participation and mobilization to keep the movement alive and potentially grow it.

SUBMITTER: Plumper T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8662088 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The strategy of protest against Covid-19 containment policies in Germany.

Plümper Thomas T Neumayer Eric E Pfaff Katharina Gabriela KG

Social science quarterly 20210909 5

<h4>Objectives</h4>The article analyzes the epidemiological and political logics of protest against containment policies in Germany. To maximize the mobilization potential, protest organizers organize more protest events when Covid-19 mortality rates are low, the stringency of containment policies is high, and in districts in which the vote share of mainstream parties is traditionally low.<h4>Method</h4>Using a negative binomial model, we analyze the number of protest events in a sample of 401 G ...[more]

PMID: 34908611

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Project description:Since the appearance of the first case of COVID-19 in Morocco on March, 02, 2020, the cumulative number of reported infectious cases continues to increase and, up to date, the peak-time of infection is not reached yet. In this study, we propose a Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infectious deterministic model to evaluate the impact of compulsory containment imposed in Morocco on March, 21 on the spread of COVID-19 epidemic across the country. The model takes account of the unconfined individuals that continue to work or to leave their home for urgent needs and the existence of infectious asymptomatic and unreported individuals within susceptible population. Furthermore, the model is able to predict the peak-size, peak-time, final size and epidemic duration according to different rates of containment. Advanced knowledge of these details will be of great interest to establish an optimal plan-of-action to control or eradicate the epidemic. Indeed, mitigating and delaying the epidemic peak allow the official health authorities to anticipate and control the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, prediction of the epidemic duration can help the government to predict the end time of containment to avoid consequent social-economic damages as well. Using our model, the basic reproduction number R 0 is estimated to be 2.9949, with CI(2.6729-3.1485), reflecting a high speed of spread of the epidemic. The model shows that the compulsory containment can be efficient if more than 73% of population are confined. In the absence of other efficient measure of control, even with 90% of containment, the end-time is estimated to happen on July, 4, 2020 with 7558 final cumulative cases. Furthermore, a threshold value of containment rate, below which the epidemic duration is postponed, has been determined. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is performed and showed that the COVID-19 dynamics strongly depends on the asymptomatic duration as well as the contact and containment rates. Our previsions can help the government to adjust its plan-of-action to fight the disease and to face the social-economic shock induced by the containment.

Project description:BackgroundDisruptions in essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic have been reported in several countries. Yet, patterns in health service disruption according to country responses remain unclear. In this paper, we investigate associations between the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies and disruptions in 31 health services in 10 low- middle- and high-income countries in 2020.MethodsUsing routine health information systems and administrative data from 10 countries (Chile, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa, South Korea, and Thailand) we estimated health service disruptions for the period of April to December 2020 by dividing monthly service provision at national levels by the average service provision in the 15 months pre-COVID (January 2019-March 2020). We used the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) index and multi-level linear regression analyses to assess associations between the stringency of restrictions and health service disruptions over nine months. We extended the analysis by examining associations between 11 individual containment or closure policies and health service disruptions. Models were adjusted for COVID caseload, health service category and country GDP and included robust standard errors.FindingsChronic disease care was among the most affected services. Regression analyses revealed that a 10% increase in the mean stringency index was associated with a 3.3 percentage-point (95% CI -3.9, -2.7) reduction in relative service volumes. Among individual policies, curfews, and the presence of a state of emergency, had the largest coefficients and were associated with 14.1 (95% CI -19.6, 8.7) and 10.7 (95% CI -12.7, -8.7) percentage-point lower relative service volumes, respectively. In contrast, number of COVID-19 cases in 2020 was not associated with health service disruptions in any model.ConclusionsAlthough containment policies were crucial in reducing COVID-19 mortality in many contexts, it is important to consider the indirect effects of these restrictions. Strategies to improve the resilience of health systems should be designed to ensure that populations can continue accessing essential health care despite the presence of containment policies during future infectious disease outbreaks.

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Dataset Information

The strategy of protest against Covid-19 containment policies in Germany.

Objectives

Method

Results

Conclusion

Publications

The strategy of protest against Covid-19 containment policies in Germany.

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