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Analyzing the impacts of climate change on rice supply in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia.

ABSTRACT: Differing from other main grains, rice is mainly fed by humans. This means that rice is important for human food security. Rice also has a significant contribution to employment and the economy, especially in developing countries. Owing to this, understanding the negative impacts of climate change on rice supply is a critical issue. This study uses the system dynamics modeling to investigate the impacts of climate change on three factors: rice yield, harvested areas, and rice production in West Nusa Tenggara (WNT), Indonesia throughout this century. In doing so, this study incorporates production and climate factors in assessing the impacts of climate change on rice supply. Although climate change may allow a small increase in harvested areas, decreases in rice yield will likely outweigh this. Owing to this, policymakers should not rely on the farming land expansion. Rather, policymakers should enhance the research and development of heat-tolerant rice varieties to anticipate the negative impacts of climate change on rice supply. This study also claims that despite the negative impacts of climate change on rice production, WNT can fulfill its local rice demand under a changing climate. Nevertheless, WNT cannot provide a sufficient rice for its neighboring provinces: Bali and East Nusa Tenggara.

SUBMITTER: Khairulbahri M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8665350 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMalaria is a global pandemic that results in approximately 228 million cases globally; 3.5% of these cases are in Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia. Following the World Health Organization (WHO) initiative, Indonesia is in the process of achieving malaria-free zone status by 2030. However, the eastern part of Indonesia, including the East Nusa Tenggara Province (ENTP), still has a disproportionately high rate of malaria.ObjectiveThe aims of this cross-sectional study are to determine the awareness and knowledge, attitude, and practice toward various aspects of malaria among rural adults and their associated factors, including sociodemographic factors and ethnicities; assess the gap between coverage of, access to, and use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) among the households; estimate the prevalence of and factors associated with malaria in rural adults; and develop a risk prediction model for malaria.MethodsA multistage cluster sampling procedure with a systematic random sampling procedure at cluster level 4 was applied to recruit 1503 adults aged 18 years or older from the ENTP. Each participant participated in a face-to-face interview to assess their awareness and knowledge, attitude, and practice toward aspects of malaria, practices of sleeping under LLINs, and history of malaria. Information on sociodemographic, environmental, and lifestyle factors was also documented. The proportion of knowledge, attitude, and practice toward aspects of malaria and their variations across different sociodemographic and ethnic groups will be analyzed using descriptive statistics and chi-square tests. Coverage and access to LLINs will be evaluated based on the WHO recommendations. Malaria risk factors will be analyzed using logistic regression. Multilevel logistic regression will be applied to estimate the risk score for malaria.ResultsOf the total participants, 99.46% (1495/1503) of rural adults from 49 villages in the ENTP participated in a face-to-face interview from October to December 2019. The study results are expected to be published in peer-reviewed journals.ConclusionsThe best malaria risk prediction model will be developed in this study. In this protocol, we developed a methodology to provide new evidence to guide health policy in supporting the ENTP government's expectation to achieve the malaria-free rating by 2030.International registered report identifier (irrid)DERR1-10.2196/23545.

Project description:The role of the gut microbiota in energy metabolism of the host has been established, both in overweight/obesity, as well as in undernutrition/stunting. Dysbiosis of the gut microbiota may predispose to stunting. The aim of this study was to compare the gut microbiota composition of stunted Indonesian children and non-stunted children between 36 and 45 months from two sites on the East Nusa Tenggara (ENT) islands. Fecal samples were collected from 100 stunted children and 100 non-stunted children in Kupang and North Kodi. The gut microbiota composition was determined by sequencing amplicons of the V3-V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene. Moreover, fecal SCFA concentrations were analyzed. The microbiota composition was correlated to anthropometric parameters and fecal metabolites. The phyla Bacteroidetes (Bacteroidota; q = 0.014) and Cyanobacteria (q = 0.049) were significantly higher in stunted children. Three taxa at genus levels were consistently significantly higher in stunted children at both sampling sites, namely Lachnoclostridium, Faecalibacterium and Veillonella (q < 7 * 10-4). These and 9 other taxa positively correlated to the z-score length-for-age (zlen), while 11 taxa negatively correlated with zlen. Several taxa also correlated with sanitary parameters, some of which were also significantly different between the two groups. All three fecal SCFA concentrations (acetate, propionate and butyrate) and their total were lower in stunted children compared to non-stunted children, although not significant for butyrate, indicating lower energy-extraction by the gut microbiota. Also, since SCFA have been shown to be involved in gut barrier function, barrier integrity may be affected in the stunted children. It remains to be seen if the three taxa are involved in stunting, or are changed due to e.g. differences in diet, hygiene status, or other factors. The observed differences in this study do not agree with our previous observations in children on Java, Indonesia. There are differences in infrastructure facilities such as clean water and sanitation on ENT and Java, which may contribute to the differences observed. The role of the gut microbiota in stunting therefore requires more in depth studies. Trial registration: the trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with identifier number NCT05119218.

Project description:IntroductionThe World Health Organization recommends seeking medical treatment within 24 hours after transmission of malaria to reduce the risk of severe complications and its onwards spread. However, in some parts of Indonesia, including East Nusa Tenggara Province (ENTP), this adherence is not achieved for a range of reasons including delays in visiting health centres. This study aims to determine factors related to the poor understanding of appropriate malaria treatment-seeking behaviour (AMTSB) of rural adults in ENTP. AMTSB was defined as seeking treatment at professional health facilities within 24 hours of the onset of malaria symptoms.MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted in the East Sumba, Belu, and East Manggarai district of ENTP between October and December 2019. A multi-stage cluster sampling procedure was applied to enrol 1503 participants aged between 18 and 89 years of age. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess significant factors associated with the poor understanding of AMTSB.ResultsEighty-six percent of participants were found to be familiar with the term malaria. However, poor understanding level of AMTSB in rural adults of ENTP achieved 60.4% with a 95% confidence interval (CI): 56.9-63.8. Poor understanding of AMTSB was significantly higher for adults with no education (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 3.42, 95% CI: 1.81, 6.48) compared to those with a diploma or above education level; having low SES (AOR: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.19, 2.96) compared to those having high SES; residing at least three kilometres (km) away from the nearest health facilities (AOR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.2, 2.5) compared to those living within one km from the nearest health service; and working as farmer (AOR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.01-2.63) compared to those working at government or non-government sector. Whilst, other factors such as ethnicity and family size were not associated with the poor understanding of AMTSB.ConclusionThe proportion of rural adults having a poor understanding of AMTSB was high leading to ineffective implementation of artemisinin-based combination therapies as the method to treat malaria in ENTP. Improving awareness of AMTSB for rural adults having low level education, low SES, working as a farmer, and living at least three km from the nearest health facilities is critical to support the efficacy of malaria treatment in ENTP. This method will support the Indonesian government's objective to achieve malaria elimination by 2030.

Project description:IntroductionThe 2009 Indonesian roadmap to malaria elimination indicated that the nation had been progressing towards achieving malaria elimination by 2030. Currently, most of the districts in the western part of Indonesia have eliminated malaria; however, none of the districts in the East Nusa Tenggara Province (ENTP) have met these set targets. This study aimed to investigate the status of malaria awareness of rural adults in the ENTP.MethodsA community-based cross-sectional study was conducted between October and December 2019 in high, moderate, and low malaria-endemic settings (MESs) in the ENTP. After obtaining informed consent, data were collected using an interviewer-administered structure questionnaire among 1503 participants recruited by a multi-stage cluster sampling method. A malaria awareness index was developed based on ten questions. A binary logistic regression method was applied to investigate the significance of any association between malaria awareness and the different MESs.ResultsThe participation rate of the study was 99.5%. Of this number, 51.4% were female and 45.5% had completed primary education. The malaria awareness index was significantly low (48.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.2-52.4). Malaria awareness of rural adults residing in low endemic settings was two times higher than for those living in high endemic settings (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.81-3.21) and the basic malaria knowledge of participants living in low malaria-endemic settings was almost four times higher than that in high endemic settings (AOR: 3.75, 95% CI: 2.75-5.11). Of the total participants, 81.3% (95% CI: 79.1-83.5) were aware that malaria could be prevented and 75.1% (95% CI: 72.6-77.6) knew at least one prevention measure. Overall, the awareness of fever as the main symptom of malaria, mosquito bites as the transmission mode of malaria, and seeking treatment within 24 hours of suffering from malaria was poor at 37.9% (95% CI: 33.9-41.9), 59.1% (95% CI: 55.9-62.3), and 46.0% (95% CI: 42.3-49.7), respectively. The poor level of awareness was significantly different amongst the three MESs, with the lowest levels of awareness in the high endemic setting.ConclusionMalaria awareness of rural adults needs to be improved to address Indonesia's national roadmap for malaria elimination. Results indicated that public health programs at a local government level should incorporate the malaria awareness index in their key strategic intervention to address malaria awareness.

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Analyzing the impacts of climate change on rice supply in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia.

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