Dataset Information

Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatitis E Virus-related Acute Liver Failure: A Multicenter Study in China.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

Timely and effective assessment scoring systems for predicting the mortality of patients with hepatitis E virus-related acute liver failure (HEV-ALF) are urgently needed. The present study aimed to establish an effective nomogram for predicting the mortality of HEV-ALF patients.

Methods

The nomogram was based on a cross-sectional set of 404 HEV-ALF patients who were identified and enrolled from a cohort of 650 patients with liver failure. To compare the performance with that of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring and CLIF-Consortium-acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C-ACLFs) models, we assessed the predictive accuracy of the nomogram using the concordance index (C-index), and its discriminative ability using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (td-ROC) analysis, respectively.

Results

Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the development set carried out to predict mortality revealed that γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, total bilirubin, urea nitrogen, creatinine, international normalized ratio, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were independent factors, all of which were incorporated into the new nomogram to predict the mortality of HEV-ALF patients. The area under the curve of this nomogram for mortality prediction was 0.671 (95% confidence interval: 0.602-0.740), which was higher than that of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. Moreover, the td-ROC and decision curves analysis showed that both discriminative ability and threshold probabilities of the nomogram were superior to those of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. A similar trend was observed in the validation set.

Conclusions

The novel nomogram is an accurate and efficient mortality prediction method for HEV-ALF patients.

SUBMITTER: Wu J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8666371 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Purpose: Neutrophils and cytokines play a major role in the pathogenesis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We aimed to determine whether chemokine (CXC) ligand 1 (CXCL1), a key marker of neutrophil recruitment and activation, could predict the severity and prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF). Methods: Hospitalized patients with HBV-ACLF were enrolled in a prospective study and stratified as survivors (alive at 28 days) and nonsurvivors (deceased at 28 days). Serum CXCL1 levels were measured in healthy controls, patients with chronic HBV, patients with HBV-related compensated cirrhosis, and patients with HBV-ACLF. Univariate and multivariable logistic analyses, Pearson correlation analysis, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and Z tests were used to evaluate the performance of CXCL1 as a marker in HBV-ACLF. Results: Patients with HBV-ACLF had significantly higher serum levels of CXCL1 and neutrophil count than healthy controls and patients with chronic HBV or HBV-related compensated cirrhosis (P < 0.01, respectively). Among patients with HBV-ACLF, survivors had lower serum CXCL1 levels and neutrophil count than those of nonsurvivors (P < 0.001, P < 0.05, respectively). Serum CXCL1 level was positively correlated with neutrophil count (r = 0.256, P = 0.001), ACLF grade (r = 0.295, P < 0.001) and organ failure, including coagulation (r = 0.21, P = 0.005) and brain failure (r = 0.198, P = 0.008). Multivariable logistic analyses showed serum CXCL1 [OR (95% CI) = 1.017 (1.009-1.025), P < 0.001] was an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality in HBV-ACLF. Meanwhile, the AUROC analysis demonstrated that serum CXCL1 [0.741 (0.669-0.804)] might be a reliable prognostic biomarker for patients with HBV-ACLF. Conclusions: Overall, serum CXCL1 can serve as a biomarker indicating the severity of disease and prognosis for patients with HBV-ACLF. CXCL1 might also be a therapeutic target in this disease.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Infection is common in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which may worsen the clinical condition and prognosis. However, the characteristics of infection and its influence on prognosis in hepatitis B virus related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) as defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) have not been clarified. We aimed to investigate the characteristics of infection and its influence on mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF defined by EASL in China. METHODS:We performed a retrospective cohort study in patients with HBV-ACLF defined by EASL in a single center from January 2015 to December 2017. These patients were divided into two groups with and without infection. The incidence, sites of infection, isolated strains, and risk factors associated with mortality were evaluated. RESULTS:A total of 289 patients were included, among them 185 (64.0%) were diagnosed with an infection. The most common type of infection was pneumonia (55.7%), followed by spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (47.6%) and others. The gram-negative bacteria were the most frequent (58.3%). Patients with one, two, and three or more infection sites had a gradually increasing incidence of sepsis (P?<?0.01), septic shock (P?<?0.001), and ACLF-3 (P?<?0.05). Also, patients with infection isolated one, two, and three or more strains showed a growing incidence of sepsis (P?<?0.01) and septic shock (P?<?0.001). Patients with infection showed a significantly higher 28-day mortality than those without (P?<?0.01), especially in patients with ACLF-3. Infection was identified as an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality in all HBV-ACLF patients. Pneumonia and sepsis were identified as independent predictors of 28-day mortality for patients with infection. CONCLUSIONS:Infection is associated with severe clinical course and high mortality in HBV-ACLF defined by EASL. The increased number of infection sites or isolated strains was associated with the occurrence of sepsis and septic shock. Pneumonia and sepsis were independent predictors for mortality in HBV-ACLF patients with infection.