Dataset Information

Clinical Prediction Models for Hepatitis B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure: A Technical Report.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

It is critical but challenging to predict the prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). This study systematically summarized and evaluated the quality and performance of available clinical prediction models (CPMs).

Methods

A keyword search of articles on HBV-ACLF CPMs published in PubMed from January 1995 to April 2020 was performed. Both the quality and performance of the CPMs were assessed.

Results

Fifty-two CPMs were identified, of which 31 were HBV-ACLF specific. The modeling data were mostly derived from retrospective (83.87%) and single-center (96.77%) cohorts, with sample sizes ranging from 46 to 1,202. Three-month mortality was the most common endpoint. The Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver consensus (51.92%) and Chinese Medical Association liver failure guidelines (40.38%) were commonly used for HBV-ACLF diagnosis. Serum bilirubin (67.74%), the international normalized ratio (54.84%), and hepatic encephalopathy (51.61%) were the most frequent variables used in models. Model discrimination was commonly evaluated (88.46%), but model calibration was seldom performed. The model for end-stage liver disease score was the most widely used (84.62%); however, varying performance was reported among the studies.

Conclusions

Substantial limitations lie in the quality of HBV-ACLF-specific CPMs. Disease severity of study populations may impact model performance. The clinical utility of CPMs in predicting short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF remains to be undefined.

SUBMITTER: Yu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8666376 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) and is associated with high rates of mortality. We aimed to estimate serum high mobility group protein 1 (HMGB1) levels in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients and analyze their clinical value in the development and outcomes of Acute kidney injury. Methods: A total of 251 consecutive patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure were enrolled in this retrospective study. Using the International Club of Ascites staging criteria of Acute kidney injury, 153 patients developed Acute kidney injury. The clinical data of patients were collected and serum levels of high mobility group protein 1 were measured by ELISA. All patients were followed up until death or for a minimum of 3 months. Early prediction and prognostic implications of high mobility group protein 1 in Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Patients with Acute Kidney Injury were investigated in different cohorts, including a propensity score-matched ACLF cohort. Results: Among all individuals with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure, the incidence of Acute kidney injury was 61.0% (153/251). The patients who developed stage 2/3 Acute kidney injury showed the highest high mobility group protein 1 levels, followed by those who developed stage 1 Acute kidney injury, and those without Acute kidney injury showed the lowest high mobility group protein 1 levels. Moreover, high mobility group protein 1 levels were significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors among hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients with Acute kidney injury. Furthermore, analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) indicated that serum high mobility group protein 1 levels (pre-matching: AUC = 0.740; post-matching: AUC = 0.661) may be a potential predictive factor for Acute kidney injury development and that high mobility group protein 1 (AUC = 0.727) might be a reliable biomarker for prognosis in patients with Acute kidney injury. Conclusion: In patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure, Acute kidney injury is universal. Acute kidney injury and its stages negatively influence the 90-day transplant-free mortality rate. Serum high mobility group protein 1 levels can serve as a positive predictor of Acute kidney injury development, and high mobility group protein 1 might also be a prognostic biomarker for Acute kidney injury among hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients.

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