Retrospective validation of a machine learning clinical decision support tool for myocardial infarction risk stratification.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Panchavati S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8667565 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Patients with occlusion myocardial infarction (OMI) and no ST-elevation on presenting ECG are increasing in numbers. These patients have a poor prognosis and would benefit from immediate reperfusion therapy, but we currently have no accurate tools to identify them during initial triage. Herein, we report the first observational cohort study to develop machine learning models for the ECG diagnosis of OMI. Using 7,313 consecutive patients from multiple clinical sites, we derived and externally validated an intelligent model that outperformed practicing clinicians and other widely used commercial interpretation systems, significantly boosting both precision and sensitivity. Our derived OMI risk score provided superior rule-in and rule-out accuracy compared to routine care, and when combined with the clinical judgment of trained emergency personnel, this score helped correctly reclassify one in three patients with chest pain. ECG features driving our models were validated by clinical experts, providing plausible mechanistic links to myocardial injury.
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Project description:BackgroundNumerous studies have revealed the relationship between lipid expression and increased cardiovascular risk in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. Nevertheless, few investigations have focused on the risk stratification of STEMI patients using machine learning algorithms.MethodsA total of 1355 STEMI patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention were enrolled in this study during 2015-2018. Unsupervised machine learning (consensus clustering) was applied to the present cohort to classify patients into different lipid expression phenogroups, without the guidance of clinical outcomes. Kaplan-Meier curves were implemented to show prognosis during a 904-day median follow-up (interquartile range: 587-1316). In the adjusted Cox model, the association of cluster membership with all adverse events including all-cause mortality, all-cause rehospitalization, and cardiac rehospitalization was evaluated.ResultsAll patients were classified into three phenogroups, 1, 2, and 3. Patients in phenogroup 1 with the highest Lp(a) and the lowest HDL-C and apoA1 were recognized as the statin-modified cardiovascular risk group. Patients in phenogroup 2 had the highest HDL-C and apoA1 and the lowest TG, TC, LDL-C and apoB. Conversely, patients in phenogroup 3 had the highest TG, TC, LDL-C and apoB and the lowest Lp(a). Additionally, phenogroup 1 had the worst prognosis. Furthermore, a multivariate Cox analysis revealed that patients in phenogroup 1 were at significantly higher risk for all adverse outcomes.ConclusionMachine learning-based cluster analysis indicated that STEMI patients with increased concentrations of Lp(a) and decreased concentrations of HDL-C and apoA1 are likely to have adverse clinical outcomes due to statin-modified cardiovascular risks.Trial registrationChiCTR1900028516 ( http://www.chictr.org.cn/index.aspx ).
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Project description:The present study aimed to identify genes associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and construct an early diagnosis model based on support vector machine (SVM) learning. The gene expression profile data of GSE34198, containing 97 human blood samples including 49 patients with MI and 48 healthy individuals, were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. Differentially expressed gene (DEG) screening, DEG enrichment analysis, protein‑protein interaction (PPI) network investigation and clustering analysis were performed. The feature genes were identified using the neighboring score algorithm. Furthermore, a recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm was employed to screen risk factors among feature genes. The SVM prediction model was constructed and validated using the dataset GSE61144. A total of 1,207 DEGs (724 downregulated, 483 upregulated) between the two groups were identified. PPI analysis investigated 1,083 DEGs and 46,363 edges. In total, 87 genes were selected as candidate genes, and were primarily enriched in functions including 'G‑protein coupled receptor signaling' or pathways such as 'focal adhesion'. Furthermore, 15 genes with a high RFE score were selected to construct an SVM prediction model. The model's average accuracy was 86%. Data set verification showed that the predictive precision reached 0.92. High expression of the genes vascular endothelial growth factor A, A‑kinase anchoring protein 12 and olfactory receptor 8D2 were potential risk factors for MI. The SVM early diagnosis model constructed by candidate genes could not only predict early MI, but also provide risk probability according to the severity of MI.
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Project description:Diabetes mellitus is associated with serious complications, with foot ulcers and amputation of limbs among the most debilitating consequences of late diagnosis and treatment of foot ulcers. Thus, prediction and on-time treatment of diabetic foot ulcers (DFU) are of great importance for improving and maintaining patients' quality of life and avoiding the consequent socio-economical burden of amputation. In this study, we use Danish national registry data to understand the risk factors of developing diabetic foot ulcers and amputation among patients with diabetes. We analyze the data of 246,705 patients with diabetes to assess some of the main risk factors for developing DFU/amputation. We study the socioeconomic information and past medical history of the patients. Factors, such as low family disposable income, cardiovascular disorders, peripheral artery, neuropathy, and chronic renal complications are among the important risk factors. Mental disorders and depression, albeit not as pronounced, still pose higher risks in comparison to the group of people without these complications. We further use machine learning techniques to assess the practical usefulness of such risk factors for predicting foot ulcers and amputation. Finally, we outline the limitations of working with registry data sources and explain potentials for combining additional public and private data sources in future applications of artificial intelligence (AI) to improve the prediction of diabetic foot ulcers and amputation.
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Project description:OBJECTIVE:Conventional risk stratification models for mortality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have potential limitations. This study aimed to develop and validate deep-learning-based risk stratification for the mortality of patients with AMI (DAMI). METHODS:The data of 22,875 AMI patients from the Korean working group of the myocardial infarction (KorMI) registry were exclusively divided into 12,152 derivation data of 36 hospitals and 10,723 validation data of 23 hospitals. The predictor variables were the initial demographic and laboratory data. The endpoints were in-hospital mortality and 12-months mortality. We compared the DAMI performance with the global registry of acute coronary event (GRACE) score, acute coronary treatment and intervention outcomes network (ACTION) score, and the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) score using the validation data. RESULTS:In-hospital mortality for the study subjects was 4.4% and 6-month mortality after survival upon discharge was 2.2%. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of the DAMI were 0.905 [95% confidence interval 0.902-0.909] and 0.870 [0.865-0.876] for the ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients, respectively; these results significantly outperformed those of the GRACE (0.851 [0.846-0.856], 0.810 [0.803-0.819]), ACTION (0.852 [0.847-0.857], 0.806 [0.799-0.814] and TIMI score (0.781 [0.775-0.787], 0.593[0.585-0.603]). DAMI predicted 30.9% of patients more accurately than the GRACE score. As secondary outcome, during the 6-month follow-up, the high risk group, defined by the DAMI, has a significantly higher mortality rate than the low risk group (17.1% vs. 0.5%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:The DAMI predicted in-hospital mortality and 12-month mortality of AMI patients more accurately than the existing risk scores and other machine-learning methods.
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