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Regionalized dynamic climate series for ecological climate impact research in modern controlled environment facilities.

ABSTRACT: Modern controlled environment facilities (CEFs) enable the simulation of dynamic microclimates in controlled ecological experiments through their technical ability to precisely control multiple environmental parameters. However, few CEF studies exploit the technical possibilities of their facilities, as climate change treatments are frequently applied by static manipulation of an inadequate number of climate change drivers, ignoring intra-annual variability and covariation of multiple meteorological variables. We present a method for generating regionalized climate series in high temporal resolution that was developed to force the TUMmesa Model EcoSystem Analyzer with dynamic climate simulations. The climate series represent annual cycles for a reference period (1987-2016) and the climate change scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (2071-2100) regionalized for a climate station situated in a forested region of the German Spessart mountains. Based on the EURO-CORDEX and ReKliEs-DE model ensembles, typical annual courses of daily resolved climatologies for the reference period and the RCP scenarios were calculated from multimodel means of temperature (t_a), relative humidity (rh), global radiation (R_g), air pressure (P), and ground-level ozone and complemented by CO₂. To account for intra-annual variation and the covariability of multiple climate variables, daily values were substituted by hourly resolved data resampled from the historical record. The resulting present climate Test Reference Year (TRY) well represented a possible annual cycle within the reference period, and expected shifts in future mean values (e.g., higher t_a) were reproduced within the RCP TRYs. The TRYs were executed in eight climate chambers of the TUMmesa facility and-accounting for the technical boundaries of the facility-reproduced with high precision. Especially, as an alternative to CEF simulations that reproduce mere day/night cycles and static manipulations of climate change drivers, the method presented here proved well suited for simulating regionalized and highly dynamic annual cycles for ecological CEF studies.

SUBMITTER: Jakli B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8668799 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Authorship is a central element of scientific research carrying a variety of rewards and responsibilities, and while various guidelines exist, actual author contributions are often ambiguous. Inconsistent or limited contributions threaten to devalue authorship as intellectual currency and diminish authors' responsibility for published content. Researchers have assessed author contributions in the medical literature and other research fields, but similar data for the field of ecological research are lacking. Authorship practices in ecological research are broadly representative of a variety of fields due to the cross-disciplinary nature of collaborations in ecological studies. To better understand author contributions to current research, we distributed a survey regarding co-author contributions to a random selection of 996 lead authors of manuscripts published in ecological journals in 2010. We obtained useable responses from 45% of surveyed authors. Reported lead author contributions in ecological research studies consistently included conception of the project idea, data collection, analysis, and writing. Middle and last author contributions instead showed a high level of individual variability. Lead authorship in ecology is well defined while secondary authorship is more ambiguous. Nearly half (48%) of all studies included in our survey had some level of non-compliance with Ecological Society of America (ESA) authorship guidelines and the majority of studies (78%) contained at least one co-author that did not meet International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) requirements. Incidence of non-compliance varied with lead author occupation and author position. The probability of a study including an author that was non-compliant with ESA guidelines was lowest for professor-led studies and highest for graduate student and post doctoral researcher-led studies. Among studies with > two co-authors, all lead authors met ESA guidelines and only 2% failed to meet ICMJE requirements. Middle (24% ESA, 63% ICMJE) and last (37% ESA, 60% ICMJE) authors had higher rates of non-compliance. The probability of a study containing a co-author that did not meet ESA or ICMJE requirements increased significantly with the number of co-authors per study although even studies with only two co-authors had a high probability of non-compliance of approximately 60% (ICMJE) and 15 to 40% (ESA). Given the variable and often limited contributions of authors in our survey and past studies of other research disciplines, institutions, journals, and scientific societies need to implement new approaches to instill meaning in authorship status. A byline approach may not alter author contributions but would better define individual contributions and reduce existing ambiguity regarding the meaning of authorship in modern ecological research.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria epidemics are increasing in East Africa since the 1980s, coincident with rising temperature and widening climate variability. A projected 1-3.5 °C rise in average global temperatures by 2100 could exacerbate the epidemics by modifying disease transmission thresholds. Future malaria scenarios for the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) are quantified for projected climate scenarios spanning 2006-2100.MethodsRegression relationships are established between historical (1995-2010) clinical malaria and anaemia cases and rainfall and temperature for four East African malaria hotspots. The vector autoregressive moving average processes model, VARMAX (p,q,s), is then used to forecast malaria and anaemia responses to rainfall and temperatures projected with an ensemble of eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate change scenarios defined by three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5).ResultsMaximum temperatures in the long rainy (March-May) and dry (June-September) seasons will likely increase by over 2.0 °C by 2070, relative to 1971-2000, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Minimum temperatures (June-September) will likely increase by over 1.5-3.0 °C under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The short rains (OND) will likely increase more than the long rains (MAM) by the 2050s and 2070s under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Historical malaria cases are positively and linearly related to the 3-6-month running means of monthly rainfall and maximum temperature. Marked variation characterizes the patterns projected for each of the three scenarios across the eight General Circulation Models, reaffirming the importance of using an ensemble of models for projections.ConclusionsThe short rains (OND), wet season (MAM) temperatures and clinical malaria cases will likely increase in the Lake Victoria Basin. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including malaria control interventions could reduce the projected epidemics and cases. Interventions should reduce emerging risks, human vulnerability and environmental suitability for malaria transmission.

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Regionalized dynamic climate series for ecological climate impact research in modern controlled environment facilities.

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