Achieving consensus in multilateral international negotiations: The case study of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bernardo C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8673769 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:China committed to peak its carbon emissions around 2030, with best efforts to peak early, and also to achieve 20% non-fossil energy as a proportion of primary energy supply by 2030. These commitments were included in China's nationally-determined contribution to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. We develop and apply a mixed-method methodology for analyzing the likelihood of current Chinese policies reducing greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with China's Paris commitments. We find that China is likely to peak its emissions well in advance of 2030 and achieve its non-fossil target conditional on full and effective implementation of all current policies, successful conclusion of power-sector reform, and full implementation of a national emissions-trading system (ETS) for the power and additional major industrial sectors after 2020. Several policy gaps are identified and discussed.
| S-EPMC6435737 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding the implications of global climate governance is critical for achieving sustainable economic development, given that the economic impacts of climate change and policies are disproportionately distributed across regions. We estimate the updated damage functions and construct an uncertainty analysis framework to assess whether stringent climate policies entail economic benefits in terms of growth and inequality. The findings show that although climate policies slow the pace of economic growth, the benefits of avoided damage may overweight policy costs in the long run. Moreover, pursuing the 1.5°C goal slows economic catch-up of poor countries in the short to medium term relative to 2°C, but improves global inequality in the long run. This situation may, however, change when moving to a fast-growing and fossil-fueled world, in which inequalities gradually decline but start to rise after 2065. This study highlights the importance of synergizing the stringent 1.5°C goal with economic inequality alleviation.
| S-EPMC9792906 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C". The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
| S-EPMC6217994 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) represent the world's first effort toward the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperature increase well below 2 °C and pursuing 1.5 °C. Little is known about how much the proposed mitigation efforts can reduce the risks and economic damages from unabated climate change and about the consequences if key emitters drop the Paris Agreement. Here, we use CLIMRISK, an integrated assessment model designed to support climate policy at the global, national, and subnational scales where mitigation and adaptation policy decisions are made. We characterize the consequences of unabated climate change and the benefits of current climate policy proposals by means of probabilistic estimates of the economic damages of climate change and uni- and multivariate dynamic climate risk indices at a detailed spatial resolution. The results presented reveal that the economic costs and risks are highly unequally distributed between and within countries and larger than previously estimated when warming in urban areas and temporal persistence of impacts are accounted for. Costs and risks can be significantly limited by strict implementation of NDCs, but increase noticeably under noncompliance by large emitters, like the United States.
| S-EPMC9292546 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2?°C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consistently incorporate a damage-cost curve reproducing the observed relation between temperature and economic growth into the integrated assessment model DICE. We thus provide an inter-temporally optimizing cost-benefit analysis of this century's climate problem. We account for uncertainties regarding the damage curve, climate sensitivity, socioeconomic future, and mitigation costs. The resulting optimal temperature is robust as can be understood from the generic temperature-dependence of the mitigation costs and the level of damages inferred from the observed temperature-growth relationship. Our results show that the politically motivated Paris Climate Agreement also represents the economically favourable pathway, if carried out properly.
| S-EPMC6985261 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the Glasgow COP26, several major emitters have announced new climate neutrality commitments. Others revised their nationally determined contributions (NDC). The climate, energy, and economic repercussion of these revised pledges is still unclear. Here, using a detailed-process integrated assessment model (WITCH), we analyze the impact of the Glasgow net-zero commitments and compare it to scenarios consistent with the Paris' agreement. We find that-if fully implemented-the Glasgow strategies would help close the gap to 2 ° C , covering more than 80% of the world's needed emission reductions by 2070. The pledged commitments would exceed 1.5°C, with a temperature increase (50% likelihood) of 1.6 ° C- 1.8 ° C by the end of the century. We find that the Glasgow net-zero pledges would require substantial increases in investment in electric transportation and power generation in all major economies. Compared to a scenario with uniform carbon taxation, Glasgow differentiated pledges' do not significantly increase global policy costs, are more fair, and save more lives by promoting cleaner air. However, they delay coal phase-out and increase the need for negative emission technologies.
| S-EPMC9883194 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Ensuring public health is crucial in any policy debate on climate change. Paris Agreement on climate change is a global contract, through which countries have committed themselves to a public health treaty. The agreement has laid the foundation for mitigation and adaptation. This study was conducted to provide an evidence-based framework for policy-making in the health system of Iran in order to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on public health and to increase the adaptation of the health system as a result. METHODS:This is a qualitative study. We first used Delphi method to extract the components of Paris Agreement on climate change that were related to the functions and policymaking of health system in Iran. Twenty-three experts in health and climate change were identified purposefully and through snowball sampling as participants in Delphi. Data collection instrument was a structured questionnaire. We used SPSS software version 25 for data analysis based on the descriptive indices including the mean, the percentage of consensus above 75%, and the Kendall coordination coefficient. RESULTS:Seventy-nine components classified within nine categories were extracted. The most important examples of the implementation of Paris Agreement on climate change in the health system of Iran were: participation in the formulation of strategies for mitigation and adaptation, identifying vulnerable groups, assessing vulnerability, increasing the capacity of health services delivery during extreme events, using early warning systems, using new technologies to increase the adaptation, evaluation of interventions, financial support, increasing the number of researches, increasing the knowledge and skills of staff, and finally public awareness. CONCLUSIONS:Evidence-based policy-making is pivotal to develop effective programs to control the health effects of climate change. This research provided policy translation and customization of micro and macro provisions of Paris Agreement on climate change, in line with the political context of health system in Iran. Our finding will pave the ground, we envisage, for further steps towards capacity building and enhancement of resiliency of the health system, adaptation interventions, and evaluation, identification of barriers and facilitators for adaptation and decreasing the adverse health effects caused by the climate change, in Iran and perhaps beyond.
| S-EPMC7488526 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Azerbaijan has committed to cut GHG emissions by 35% by 2030 under the Paris Agreement. By applying LEAP, a well-regarded forecasting model based on inventories defined under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), GHG emissions projections are modeled in three scenarios: a without measures (WOM) scenario or business-as-usual, which assumes no change to current behavior, a with existing measures (WEM) scenario, which takes into account currently planned measures in Azerbaijan, and an EU policy scenario, which mirrors the existing mitigation measures of the European Union. The WOM scenario of total GHG emissions from the energy sector indicates that from 2010 to 2030, total emissions will increase by 67% in Azerbaijan. In the WEM scenario, forecasted GHG emissions are only 29.7% lower than the base year and still above the nation's Paris Agreement commitment. In the EU policy scenario, projected GHG emissions are 37.2% lower than the base year. Therefore, current mitigation measures are insufficient for Azerbaijan to meet its commitments to the Paris Agreement, and stronger measures than currently planned are necessary. Because of its status as a developing nation with limited resources, Azerbaijan must have funding from developed nations promised under the Paris Agreement to transition towards a less carbon-heavy economy.
| S-EPMC7452500 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Current mitigation efforts and existing future commitments are inadequate to accomplish the Paris Agreement temperature goals. In light of this, research and debate are intensifying on the possibilities of additionally employing proposed climate geoengineering technologies, either through atmospheric carbon dioxide removal or farther-reaching interventions altering the Earth's radiative energy budget. Although research indicates that several techniques may eventually have the physical potential to contribute to limiting climate change, all are in early stages of development, involve substantial uncertainties and risks, and raise ethical and governance dilemmas. Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
| S-EPMC6137062 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2?°C and 1.5?°C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.
| S-EPMC7190619 | biostudies-literature