Prediction across healthcare settings: a case study in predicting emergency department disposition.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Barak-Corren Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8674364 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveA common emergency department (ED) patient care outcome metric is 72-hour ED return visits (EDRVs). Risks predictive of EDRV vary in different studies. However, risk differences associated with related versus unrelated EDRV and subsequent EDRV disposition deviations (EDRVDD) are rarely addressed. We aim to compare the potential risk patterns predictive of related and unrelated EDRV and further determine those potential risks predictive of EDRVDD.MethodsWe conducted a large retrospective observational study from September 1, 2015 through June 30, 2016. ED Patient demographic characteristics and clinical metrics were compared among patients of 1) related; 2) unrelated; and 3) no EDRVs. EDRVDD was defined as obvious disposition differences between initial ED visit and return visits. A multivariate multinomial logistic regression was performed to determine the independent risks predictive of EDRV and EDRVDD after adjusting for all confounders.ResultsA total of 63,990 patients were enrolled; 4.65% were considered related EDRV, and 1.80% were unrelated. The top risks predictive of EDRV were homeless, patient left without being seen, eloped, or left against medical advice. The top risks predictive of EDRVDD were geriatric and whether patients had primary care physicians regardless as to whether patient returns were related or unrelated to their initial ED visits.ConclusionOver 6% of patients experienced ED return visits within 72 hours. Though risks predicting such revisits were multifactorial, similar risks were identified not only for ED return visits, but also for return ED visit disposition deviations.
| S-EPMC6614047 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo examine predictors of hospitalization among older adults at high risk for suicide treated in emergency departments (EDs).MethodsThis retrospective cohort analysis used national 2015 Medicare claims for adults ≥65 years with ED visits for suicide ideation or deliberate self-harm (N = 50,472) merged with data from the Area Health Resource File. Rates and adjusted risk ratios (ARR) of hospital admission were assessed.ResultsA majority of ED episodes resulted in hospital admission (81.9%) with most being admitted to a psychiatric unit (62.8%). Visits for self-harm with suicide ideation were most likely to result in hospitalization (94.7%) compared to suicide ideation alone (84.0%) or self-harm alone (73.1%). Current diagnosis of depression, bipolar, anxiety, cognitive, and personality disorder were associated with hospitalization. Co-occurring mental and substance use disorders were the most predictive mental health condition of admission. Overall, severity of current medical comorbidity was the strongest predictor of hospital admission.ConclusionsMost older adults treated in EDs for suicide ideation or self-harm are hospitalized. Medical morbidity plays a more prominent role than other patient factors in admission status.
| S-EPMC6500465 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesEarly patient disposition is crucial to prevent crowding in emergency departments (EDs). Our study aimed to characterise the need of in-house resources for patients treated in the ED according to the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) and the presenting complaint at the timepoint of triage.DesignA retrospective single-centre study was conducted.SettingData of all patients who presented to the interdisciplinary ED of a tertiary care hospital in Munich, Germany, from 2014 to 2017 were analysed.Participantsn=113 694 patients were included.MeasuresESI Score, medical speciality according to the chief complaint, mode of arrival, admission rates and discharge destination from the ED were evaluated.ResultsPatient disposition varied according to ESI scores in combination with the chief complaint. Patients with low ESI scores were more likely to be admitted after treatment in the ED than patients with high ESI scores. Highly prioritised patients (ESI 1) mainly required admission to an intensive care unit (ICU, 27%), intermediate care unit (IMC, 37%) or immediate intervention (11%). In this critical patient group, 30% of patients with neurological or medical symptoms required immediate intensive care, whereas only 17% of patients with surgical problems were admitted to an ICU. A significant number of patients (particularly with neurological or medical problems) required hospital (and in some cases even ICU or IMC) admission despite high ESI scores.ConclusionsOverall, ESI seems to be a useful tool to anticipate the need for specialised in-hospital resources on arrival. Patients with symptoms pointing at neurological or medical problems need particular attention as ESI may fail to sufficiently predict the care facility level for this patient group.
| S-EPMC9109098 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to determine whether crowding influences treatment times and disposition decisions for emergency department (ED) patients.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study at 2 hospitals from January 1, 2014, to July 1, 2014. Adult ED visits with dispositions of discharge, admission, or transfer were included. Treatment times were modeled by linear regression with log-transformation; disposition decisions (admission or transfer vs discharge) were modeled by logistic regression. Both models adjusted for chief complaint, Emergency Severity Index (ESI), and 4 crowding metrics in quartiles: waiting count, treatment count, boarding count, and National Emergency Department Overcrowding Scale.ResultsWe included 21,382 visits at site A (12.9% excluded) and 29,193 at site B (15.0% excluded). Respective quartiles of treatment count increased treatment times by 7.1%, 10.5%, and 13.3% at site A (P < 0.001) and by 4.0%, 6.5%, and 10.2% at site B (P < 0.001). The fourth quartile of treatment count increased estimates of treatment time for patients with chest pain and ESI level 2 from 2.5 to 2.9 hours at site A (20 minutes) and from 3.0 to 3.3 hours at site B (18 minutes). Treatment times decreased with quartiles of waiting count by 5.6%, 7.2%, and 7.3% at site B (P < 0.001). Odds of admission or transfer increased with quartiles of waiting count by 8.7%, 9.6%, and 20.3% at site A (P = 0.011) and for the third (11.7%) and fourth quartiles (27.3%) at site B (P < 0.001).ConclusionsLocal crowding influenced ED treatment times and disposition decisions at 2 hospitals after adjusting for chief complaint and ESI.
| S-EPMC7819268 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Abstract Objective The objective of this study was to assess the 1‐year outcomes of emergency department (ED) patients with complicated gallstone disease, including surgery rates, initial admission rates, ED revisits, repeat hospitalizations, and cost. Methods Using 3 linked statewide databases from the Maryland Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, we identified patients with a primary diagnosis of complicated gallstone disease treated in an ED between 2016 and 2018. We measured the healthcare use and direct costs in the ambulatory surgery, inpatient, and ED settings for 1 year after the initial ED visit. Finally, we performed a multivariate logistic regression analysis comparing initially admitted versus discharged patients. Results Of the 8751 patients analyzed, 86.8% were admitted to the hospital and 13.2% were discharged on their initial ED visit. Of the admitted patients, 78.7% received a cholecystectomy during the initial hospitalization plus 6.1% at a later date; of the discharged patients, 41.5% received a cholecystectomy. Admitted patients demonstrated lower recurrent gallbladder complications compared with those discharged (7.5% vs 44.5%), fewer ED revisits (4% vs 20.3%), and fewer repeat hospitalizations (4.5% vs 16.7%). Despite this, the 1‐year cost in the admitted patients was higher ($9448 vs $2933). Obesity, age, and mood disorders but not race, ethnicity, or zip code were associated with admission at initial ED visit. Conclusions In our single‐state analysis of ED patients with complications of gallstone disease, most patients are admitted on the initial visit and receive a cholecystectomy during that hospitalization. The discharged group had higher rates of 1‐year complications, ED revisits, and repeat hospitalizations but lower cost.
| S-EPMC9562831 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE::We estimate associations between emergency department (ED) diagnoses and suicide among youth to guide ED care. METHOD::This ED-based case-control study used data from the Office of the Chief Coroner and all EDs in Ontario, Canada. Cases ( n = 697 males and n = 327 females) were aged 10 to 25 years who died by suicide in Ontario between April 2003 and March 2014, with an ED contact in the year before their death. Same-aged ED-based controls were selected during this time frame. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS::Among youth diagnosed with a mental health problem at their most recent ED contact (41.9% cases, 5% controls), suicide was elevated among nonfatal self-inflicted: 'other' injuries, including hanging, strangulation, and suffocation in both sexes (aORs > 14); cut/pierce injuries in males (aOR > 5); poisonings in both sexes (aORs > 2.2); and mood and psychotic disorders in males (aORs > 1.7). Among those remaining, 'undetermined' injuries and poisonings in both sexes (aORs > 5), 'unintentional' poisonings in males (aOR = 2.1), and assault in both sexes (aORs > 1.8) were significant. At least half of cases had ED contact within 106 days. CONCLUSIONS::The results highlight the need for timely identification and treatment of mental health problems. Among those with an identified mental health problem, important targets for suicide prevention efforts are youth with self-harm and males with mood and psychotic disorders. Among others, youth with unintentional poisonings, undetermined events, and assaults should raise concern.
| S-EPMC6405805 | biostudies-other
Project description:ObjectivesThis study examined the relationship between insurance status and emergency department (ED) disposition of injured California children.MethodsMultivariate regression models were built using data obtained from the 2005 through 2009 California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD) data sets for all ED visits by injured children younger than 19 years of age.ResultsOf 3,519,530 injury-related ED visits, 52% were insured by private, and 36% were insured by public insurance, while 11% of visits were not insured. After adjustment for injury characteristics and demographic variables, publicly insured children had a higher likelihood of admission for mild, moderate, and severe injuries compared to privately insured children (mild injury adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.34 to 1.39; moderate and severe injury AOR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.28 to 1.41). However, uninsured children were less likely to be admitted for mild, moderate, and severe injuries compared to privately insured children (mild injury AOR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.61 to 0.66; moderate and severe injury AOR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.46 to 0.55). While publicly insured children with moderate and severe injuries were as likely as privately insured children to experience an ED death (AOR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.70 to 1.18), uninsured children with moderate and severe injuries were more likely to die in the ED compared to privately insured children (AOR = 3.11, 95% CI = 2.38 to 4.06).ConclusionsPrivately insured, publicly insured, and uninsured injured children have disparate patterns of ED disposition. Policy and clinical efforts are needed to ensure that all injured children receive equitable emergency care.
| S-EPMC3443629 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:Studies of public hospitals have reported increasing incidence of emergency department (ED) transfers of uninsured patients for hospitalization, which is perceived to be associated with financial incentives. Objective:To examine the differences in risk-adjusted transfer and discharge rates by patient insurance status among hospitals capable of providing critical care. Design, Setting, and Participants:A cross-sectional analysis of the 2015 National Emergency Department Sample was conducted, including visits between January 2015 and December 2015. Adult ED visits throughout 2015 (n = 215 028) for the 3 common medical conditions of pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma, at hospitals with intensive care capabilities were included. Only hospitals with advanced critical care capabilities for pulmonary care were included. Main Outcomes and Measures:The primary outcomes were patient-level and hospital-level risk-adjusted ED discharges, ED transfers, and hospital admissions. Adjusted odds of discharge or transfer compared with admission among uninsured patients, Medicaid and Medicare beneficiaries, and privately insured patients are reported. Hospital ownership status was used for the secondary analysis. Results:Of the 30 542 691 ED visits to 953 hospitals included in the 2015 National Emergency Department Sample, 215 028 visits (0.7%) were for acute pulmonary diseases to 160 intensive care-capable hospitals. These visits were made by patients with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 55 (40-71) years and who were predominantly female (124 931 [58.1%]). Substantial variation in unadjusted and risk-standardized ED discharge, ED transfer, and hospital admission rates was found across EDs. Compared with privately insured patients, uninsured patients were more likely to be discharged (odds ratio [OR], 1.66; 95% CI, 1.57-1.76) and transferred (adjusted OR [aOR], 2.41; 95% CI, 2.08-2.79). Medicaid beneficiaries had comparable odds of discharge (aOR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.97-1.04) but higher odds of transfer (aOR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05-1.33). Conclusions and Relevance:After accounting for hospital critical care capability and patient case mix, the study found that uninsured patients and Medicaid beneficiaries with common medical conditions appeared to have higher odds of interhospital transfer.
| S-EPMC6503571 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Many studies have shown the tendency for people without a regular care provider or primary physician to make greater use of emergency departments. We sought to determine the effects of three aspects of care provided by primary physicians (physician specialty, continuity of care and comprehensiveness of care) on their patients' use of the emergency department.Using provincial administrative databases, we created a cohort of 367,315 adults aged 18 years and older. Participants were residents of urban areas of Quebec. Affiliation with a primary physician, the specialty of this physician (i.e., family physician v. specialist), continuity of care (as measured using the Usual Provider Continuity index) and comprehensiveness of care (i.e., number of complete annual examinations) were measured among participants (n = 311,701) who had visited a physician three or more times during a two-year baseline period. We used multivariable negative binomial regression to investigate the relationships between measures of care and the number of visits to emergency departments during a 12-month follow-up period.Among participants under 65 years of age, emergency department use was higher for those not affiliated than for those affiliated with a family physician (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.16) or a specialist (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04-1.17). Among patients aged 65 years and older, having a specialist primary physician, as opposed to a family physician, predicted increased use of the emergency department (IRR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09-1.17). Greater continuity of care with a family physician predicted less use of the emergency department only among participants who made 25 or more visits to a physician during the baseline period. Greater continuity of care with a specialist predicted less use of the emergency department overall, particularly among participants with intermediate numbers of multimorbidities and admissions to hospital. Greater comprehensiveness of care by family physicians predicted less use of the emergency department.Efforts to increase the proportion of adults affiliated with a family physician should target older adults, people who visit physicians more frequently and people with multiple comorbidities and admissions to hospital.
| S-EPMC3314059 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe recently introduced a clinical practice pathway for the management of asthma that uses the Pediatric Respiratory Assessment Measure (PRAM) to guide emergency department (ED) treatment and disposition. The pathway recommends discharge for patients who achieve improvement to PRAM <4 at 1 hour after the last bronchodilator. We evaluated practice variation and patient outcomes associated with PRAM-directed disposition recommendations.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of children aged 2 to 17 years treated for moderate asthma (PRAM score 4-7) using our asthma clinical pathway. We measured 1) the proportion of children discharged per pathway criteria who returned to our ED within 24 hours and 2) the proportion of children observed beyond the pathway discharge criteria who deteriorated (PRAM ≥4).ResultsWe analyzed 385 patient records from September 2013 to February 2015. Among 145 (37.7%) patients discharged per pathway criteria, 4 (4/145; 2.8%) returned within 24 hours. The remaining 240 (62.2%) were observed beyond the pathway discharge criteria; 76/240 (31.7%) had a subsequent deterioration (PRAM score ≥ 4) and 25/240 (10.4%) were hospitalized. Of those who deteriorated, 46/76 (60.5%) worsened within the first additional hour of observation.ConclusionWe observed significant deviation from our PRAM-directed pathway discharge criteria and that a significant proportion of observed patients experienced clinical deterioration beyond the first hour of observation. We recommend observing children with moderate asthma for 2 or 3 hours from last bronchodilator therapy if PRAM < 4 is maintained, to capture the majority (97.7% or 99.7%) of patients who require further intervention and hospitalization.
| S-EPMC6587418 | biostudies-literature