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Fine scale prediction of ecological community composition using a two-step sequential Machine Learning ensemble.

ABSTRACT: Prediction is one of the last frontiers in ecology. Indeed, predicting fine-scale species composition in natural systems is a complex challenge as multiple abiotic and biotic processes operate simultaneously to determine local species abundances. On the one hand, species intrinsic performance and their tolerance limits to different abiotic pressures modulate species abundances. On the other hand, there is growing recognition that species interactions play an equally important role in limiting or promoting such abundances within ecological communities. Here, we present a joint effort between ecologists and data scientists to use data-driven models to predict species abundances using reasonably easy to obtain data. We propose a sequential data-driven modeling approach that in a first step predicts the potential species abundances based on abiotic variables, and in a second step uses these predictions to model the realized abundances once accounting for species competition. Using a curated data set over five years we predict fine-scale species abundances in a highly diverse annual plant community. Our models show a remarkable spatial predictive accuracy using only easy-to-measure variables in the field, yet such predictive power is lost when temporal dynamics are taken into account. This result suggests that predicting future abundances requires longer time series analysis to capture enough variability. In addition, we show that these data-driven models can also suggest how to improve mechanistic models by adding missing variables that affect species performance such as particular soil conditions (e.g. carbonate availability in our case). Robust models for predicting fine-scale species composition informed by the mechanistic understanding of the underlying abiotic and biotic processes can be a pivotal tool for conservation, especially given the human-induced rapid environmental changes we are experiencing. This objective can be achieved by promoting the knowledge gained with classic modelling approaches in ecology and recently developed data-driven models.

SUBMITTER: Civantos-Gomez I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8675934 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:In plants, long non-protein coding RNAs are believed to have essential roles in development and stress responses. However, relative to advances on discerning biological roles for long non-protein coding RNAs in animal systems, this RNA class in plants is largely understudied. With comparatively few validated plant long non-coding RNAs, research on this potentially critical class of RNA is hindered by a lack of appropriate prediction tools and databases. Supervised learning models trained on data sets of mostly non-validated, non-coding transcripts have been previously used to identify this enigmatic RNA class with applications largely focused on animal systems. Our approach uses a training set comprised only of empirically validated long non-protein coding RNAs from plant, animal, and viral sources to predict and rank candidate long non-protein coding gene products for future functional validation. RESULTS:Individual stochastic gradient boosting and random forest classifiers trained on only empirically validated long non-protein coding RNAs were constructed. In order to use the strengths of multiple classifiers, we combined multiple models into a single stacking meta-learner. This ensemble approach benefits from the diversity of several learners to effectively identify putative plant long non-coding RNAs from transcript sequence features. When the predicted genes identified by the ensemble classifier were compared to those listed in GreeNC, an established plant long non-coding RNA database, overlap for predicted genes from Arabidopsis thaliana, Oryza sativa and Eutrema salsugineum ranged from 51 to 83% with the highest agreement in Eutrema salsugineum. Most of the highest ranking predictions from Arabidopsis thaliana were annotated as potential natural antisense genes, pseudogenes, transposable elements, or simply computationally predicted hypothetical protein. Due to the nature of this tool, the model can be updated as new long non-protein coding transcripts are identified and functionally verified. CONCLUSIONS:This ensemble classifier is an accurate tool that can be used to rank long non-protein coding RNA predictions for use in conjunction with gene expression studies. Selection of plant transcripts with a high potential for regulatory roles as long non-protein coding RNAs will advance research in the elucidation of long non-protein coding RNA function.

Project description:Zika virus (ZIKV), the causative agent of Zika fever in humans, is an RNA virus that belongs to the genus Flavivirus. Currently, there is no approved vaccine for clinical use to combat the ZIKV infection and contain the epidemic. Epitope-based peptide vaccines have a large untapped potential for boosting vaccination safety, cross-reactivity, and immunogenicity. Though many attempts have been made to develop vaccines for ZIKV, none of these have proved to be successful. Epitope-based peptide vaccines can act as powerful alternatives to conventional vaccines due to their low production cost, less reactogenic, and allergenic responses. For designing an effective and viable epitope-based peptide vaccine against this deadly virus, it is essential to select the antigenic T-cell epitopes since epitope-based vaccines are considered safe. The in silico machine-learning-based approach for ZIKV T-cell epitope prediction would save a lot of physical experimental time and efforts for speedy vaccine development compared to in vivo approaches. We hereby have trained a machine-learning-based computational model to predict novel ZIKV T-cell epitopes by employing physicochemical properties of amino acids. The proposed ensemble model based on a voting mechanism works by blending the predictions for each class (epitope or nonepitope) from each base classifier. Predictions obtained for each class by the individual classifier are summed up, and the class with the majority vote is predicted upon. An odd number of classifiers have been used to avoid the occurrence of ties in the voting. Experimentally determined ZIKV peptide sequences data set was collected from Immune Epitope Database and Analysis Resource (IEDB) repository. The data set consists of 3,519 sequences, of which 1,762 are epitopes and 1,757 are nonepitopes. The length of sequences ranges from 6 to 30 meter. For each sequence, we extracted 13 physicochemical features. The proposed ensemble model achieved sensitivity, specificity, Gini coefficient, AUC, precision, F-score, and accuracy of 0.976, 0.959, 0.993, 0.994, 0.989, 0.985, and 97.13%, respectively. To check the consistency of the model, we carried out five-fold cross-validation and an average accuracy of 96.072% is reported. Finally, a comparative analysis of the proposed model with existing methods has been carried out using a separate validation data set, suggesting the proposed ensemble model as a better model. The proposed ensemble model will help predict novel ZIKV vaccine candidates to save lives globally and prevent future epidemic-scale outbreaks.

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Fine scale prediction of ecological community composition using a two-step sequential Machine Learning ensemble.

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