Project description:Hepatitis C virus (HCV) antiviral treatment for people who inject drugs (PWID) could prevent onwards transmission and reduce chronic prevalence. We assessed current PWID treatment rates in seven UK settings and projected the potential impact of current and scaled-up treatment on HCV chronic prevalence. Data on number of PWID treated and sustained viral response rates (SVR) were collected from seven UK settings: Bristol (37-48% HCV chronic prevalence among PWID), East London (37-48%), Manchester (48-56%), Nottingham (37-44%), Plymouth (30-37%), Dundee (20-27%) and North Wales (27-33%). A model of HCV transmission among PWID projected the 10-year impact of (i) current treatment rates and SVR (ii) scale-up with interferon-free direct acting antivirals (IFN-free DAAs) with 90% SVR. Treatment rates varied from <5 to over 25 per 1000 PWID. Pooled intention-to-treat SVR for PWID were 45% genotypes 1/4 [95%CI 33-57%] and 61% genotypes 2/3 [95%CI 47-76%]. Projections of chronic HCV prevalence among PWID after 10 years of current levels of treatment overlapped substantially with current HCV prevalence estimates. Scaling-up treatment to 26/1000 PWID annually (achieved already in two sites) with IFN-free DAAs could achieve an observable absolute reduction in HCV chronic prevalence of at least 15% among PWID in all sites and greater than a halving in chronic HCV in Plymouth, Dundee and North Wales within a decade. Current treatment rates among PWID are unlikely to achieve observable reductions in HCV chronic prevalence over the next 10 years. Achievable scale-up, however, could lead to substantial reductions in HCV chronic prevalence.
Project description:Tuberculosis (TB) treatment is long and complex, typically involving a combination of drugs taken for 6 months. Improved drug regimens to shorten and simplify treatment are urgently required, however a major challenge to TB drug development is the lack of predictive pre-clinical tools. To address this deficiency, we have adopted a new high-content imaging-based approach capable of defining the killing kinetics of first line anti-TB drugs against intracellular Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) residing inside macrophages. Through use of this pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) approach we demonstrate that the killing dynamics of the intracellular Mtb sub-population is critical to predicting clinical TB treatment duration. Integrated modelling of intracellular Mtb killing alongside conventional extracellular Mtb killing data, generates the biphasic responses typical of those described clinically. Our model supports the hypothesis that the use of higher doses of rifampicin (35 mg/kg) will significantly reduce treatment duration. Our described PK-PD approach offers a much needed decision making tool for the identification and prioritisation of new therapies which have the potential to reduce TB treatment duration.
Project description:Glaciers are highly effective agents of erosion that have profoundly shaped Earth's surface, but there is uncertainty about how glacial erosion should be parameterised in landscape evolution models. Glacial erosion rate is usually modelled as a function of glacier sliding velocity, but the empirical basis for this relationship is weak. In turn, climate is assumed to control sliding velocity and hence erosion, but this too lacks empirical scrutiny. Here, we present statistically robust relationships between erosion rates, sliding velocities, and climate from a global compilation of 38 glaciers. We show that sliding is positively and significantly correlated with erosion, and derive a relationship for use in erosion models. Our dataset further demonstrates that the most rapid erosion is achieved at temperate glaciers with high mean annual precipitation, which serve to promote rapid sliding. Precipitation has received little attention in glacial erosion studies, but our data illustrate its importance.
Project description:To characterize Arabidopsis proteomics and transcritomics changes in response to high light treatment. We quantify specific transcipts and protein abundance changes under both control and high light stress conditions. We aim to investigate the causality and interconnection of transcription and protein abundance change by an in-depth analysis of protein turnover, RNA-seq and 15N spike-in quantitative proteomics.
Project description:High prices of direct acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) can lead to restrictions on access to treatment in high- and middle-income countries. An increasing number of people in these countries are treating their HCV infection with generic drugs produced in India, China, Bangladesh or Egypt. This analysis assessed the efficacy of generic imported DAAs.Patients sourced generic versions of sofosbuvir (SOF), ledipasvir (LDV) and daclatasvir (DCV) from suppliers in India, Bangladesh, China and Egypt via three buyers' clubs. The choice of DAAs and the length of treatment were determined on baseline RNA levels, HCV genotype and stage of fibrosis. Patient HCV RNA levels were evaluated pre-treatment, during treatment, at end of treatment (EOT) and then for sustained virological response (SVR) at 4, 12, and 24 weeks, normally by a treating clinician.Overall 616 patients submitted results: 199 from an Australian buyers' club, 205 from a South-east Asian buyers' clubs, and 212 from an Eastern European buyers' club. Of the 616 patients treated, 276 received SOF/LDV (35 with ribavirin [RBV]) and 340 received SOF/DCV (61 with RBV). At baseline, 61% were male, 52% had HCV genotype 1 and 11% had liver cirrhosis. The mean age was 44.3 years and the mean baseline HCV RNA was 6.9 log10 IU/mL. A rapid virological response (RVR) was observed in 314/375 (84%) of the patients treated. Based on currently available data, the percentage of patients with HCV RNA below the lower limit of quantification (LLoQ) was 99% (234/237) at EOT, 99% (299/303) at SVR4 and 99% (247/250) at SVR12.In this analysis, treatment with imported generic DAAs achieved high rates of HCV RNA undetectability at the end of treatment, and SVR12 in 99% of patients evaluated to date. Mass treatment with generic DAAs is a feasible and economical alternative route of accessing curative DAAs, where the high prices for branded alternatives prevent access to treatment.
Project description:BackgroundAlthough age-standardised hip fracture incidence has declined in many countries during recent decades, the number of fractures is forecast to increase as the population ages. Understanding the drivers behind this decline is essential to inform policy for targeted preventive measures. We aimed to quantify how much of this decline could be explained by temporal trends in major risk factors and osteoporosis treatment.MethodsWe developed a new modelling approach, Hip-IMPACT, based on the validated IMPACT coronary heart disease models. The model applied sex- and age stratified hip fracture numbers and prevalence of pharmacologic treatments and risk/preventive factors in 1999 and 2019, and best available evidence for independent relative risks of hip fracture associated with each treatment and risk/preventive factor.FindingsHip-IMPACT explained 91% (2500/2756) of the declining hip fracture rates during 1999-2019. Two-thirds of the total decline was attributed to changes in risk/preventive factors and one-fifth to osteoporosis medication. Increased prevalence of total hip replacements explained 474/2756 (17%), increased body mass index 698/2756 (25%), and increased physical activity 434/2756 (16%). Reduced smoking explained 293/2756 (11%), and reduced benzodiazepine use explained (366/2756) 13%. Increased uptake of alendronate, zoledronic acid, and denosumab explained 307/2756 (11%), 104/2756 (4%) and 161/2756 (6%), respectively. The explained decline was partially offset by increased prevalence of type 2 diabetes and users of glucocorticoids, z-drugs, and opioids.InterpretationTwo-thirds of the decline in hip fractures from 1999 to 2019 was attributed to reductions in major risk factors and approximately one-fifth to osteoporosis medication.FundingThe Research Council of Norway.
Project description:IntroductionVibration perception threshold (VPT) examination using a neurothesiometer provides objective, sensitive and specific information, and has been utilized mainly in patients with diabetic polyneropathy.ObjectivesExplore the utility of VPT examination in CIDP patients.MethodsCIDP subjects attending the Neuromuscular clinic between 01/2013 and 12/2014 were evaluated. Demographic data, clinical history, physical examination, VPT values, and electrophysiologic data from their charts were extracted.Results70 charts were reviewed. 55 CIDP patients had elevated VPT, associated with higher frequency of abnormal sensory testing for various modalities (92.7% vs. 46.7%, p<0.0001), lower sensory and motor amplitudes and reduced conduction velocities on nerve conduction studies, and lower treatment response rates (54% vs. 93%, p = 0.01).ConclusionVPT examination is a simple tool, which is a reliable and sensitive measure not only for diabetic neuropathy, but also for CIDP. Moreover, in CIDP, elevated VPT values are also associated with lower treatment response rates.
Project description:IntroductionDiscontinuation of tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) treatment is emerging as the main therapy goal for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) patients. The DESTINY trial showed that TKI dose reduction prior to cessation can lead to an increased number of patients achieving sustained treatment free remission (TFR). However, there has been no systematic investigation to evaluate how dose reduction regimens can further improve the success of TKI stop trials.MethodsHere, we apply an established mathematical model of CML therapy to investigate different TKI dose reduction schemes prior to therapy cessation and evaluate them with respect to the total amount of drug used and the expected TFR success.ResultsOur systematic analysis confirms clinical findings that the overall time of TKI treatment is a major determinant of TFR success, while highlighting that lower dose TKI treatment for the same duration is equally sufficient for many patients. Our results further suggest that a stepwise dose reduction prior to TKI cessation can increase the success rate of TFR, while substantially reducing the amount of administered TKI.DiscussionOur findings illustrate the potential of dose reduction schemes prior to treatment cessation and suggest corresponding and clinically testable strategies that are applicable to many CML patients.
Project description:The human gut microbiome has been associated with several metabolic disorders including type 2 diabetes mellitus. Understanding metabolic changes in the gut microbiome is important to elucidate the role of gut bacteria in regulating host metabolism. Here, we used available metagenomics data from a metformin study, together with genome-scale metabolic modelling of the key bacteria in individual and community-level to investigate the mechanistic role of the gut microbiome in response to metformin. Individual modelling predicted that species that are increased after metformin treatment have higher growth rates in comparison to species that are decreased after metformin treatment. Gut microbial enrichment analysis showed prior to metformin treatment pathways related to the hypoglycemic effect were enriched. Our observations highlight how the key bacterial species after metformin treatment have commensal and competing behavior, and how their cellular metabolism changes due to different nutritional environment. Integrating different diets showed there were specific microbial alterations between different diets. These results show the importance of the nutritional environment and how dietary guidelines may improve drug efficiency through the gut microbiota.
Project description:IntroductionThere is a need to optimise the management of atopic dermatitis (AD), improving the efficacy of treatments and reducing the toxicity associated with them. Although the efficacy of ciclosporine (CsA) in the treatment of AD has been thoroughly documented in the literature, the optimal dose has not been yet established. The use of multiomic predictive models of treatment response could optimise CsA therapy in AD.Methods and analysisThe study is a low-intervention phase 4 trial to optimise the treatment of patients with moderate-severe AD requiring systemic treatment. The primary objectives are to identify biomarkers that could allow for the selection of responders and non-responders to first-line treatment with CsA and to develop a response prediction model to optimise the CsA dose and treatment regimen in responding patients based on these biomarkers. The study is divided into two cohorts: the first comprised of patients starting treatment with CsA (cohort 1), and the second, of patients already receiving or who have received CsA therapy (cohort 2).Ethics and disseminationThe study activities began following authorisation by the Spanish Regulatory Agency (AEMPS) and the Clinical Research Ethics Committee of La Paz University Hospital approval. Trial results will be submitted for publication in an open access peer-reviewed medical speciality-specific publication.Trial registration of this study can be located at the EU Clinical Trials Register, available from https://euclinicaltrials.eu/search-for-clinical-trials/?lang=en. Our clinical trial was registered in the website before the enrolment of the first patient complying with European regulations. EU Clinical Trials Register is a primary registry according the WHO. Once our trial was included in a primary and official registry, in order to extend the accessibility to our research, we also registered it retrospectively in clinicaltrials.gov; however, this is not mandatory as per our regulation.Trial registration numberNCT05692843.