Sources of confidence in value-based choice.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Brus J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8683513 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Decisions are never perfect, with confidence in one's choices fluctuating over time. How subjective confidence and valuation of choice options interact at the level of brain and behavior is unknown. Using a dynamic model of the decision process, we show that confidence reflects the evolution of a decision variable over time, explaining the observed relation between confidence, value, accuracy and reaction time. As predicted by our dynamic model, we show that a functional magnetic resonance imaging signal in human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) reflects both value comparison and confidence in the value comparison process. Crucially, individuals varied in how they related confidence to accuracy, allowing us to show that this introspective ability is predicted by a measure of functional connectivity between vmPFC and rostrolateral prefrontal cortex. Our findings provide a mechanistic link between noise in value comparison and metacognitive awareness of choice, enabling us both to want and to express knowledge of what we want.
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Project description:Uncertainty is ubiquitous in cognitive processing. In this study, we aim to investigate the ability agents possess to track and report the noise inherent in their mental operations, often in the form of confidence judgments. Here, we argue that humans can use uncertainty inherent in their representations of value beliefs to arbitrate between exploration and exploitation. Such uncertainty is reflected in explicit confidence judgments. Using a novel variant of a multi-armed bandit paradigm, we studied how beliefs were formed and how uncertainty in the encoding of these value beliefs (belief confidence) evolved over time. We found that people used uncertainty to arbitrate between exploration and exploitation, reflected in a higher tendency toward exploration when their confidence in their value representations was low. We furthermore found that value uncertainty can be linked to frameworks of metacognition in decision making in two ways. First, belief confidence drives decision confidence, i.e. people's evaluation of their own choices. Second, individuals with higher metacognitive insight into their choices were also better at tracing the uncertainty in their environment. Together, these findings argue that such uncertainty representations play a key role in the context of cognitive control.
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Project description:Negative numbers are central in math. However, they are abstract, hard to learn, and manipulated slower than positive numbers regardless of math ability. It suggests that confidence, namely the post-decision estimate of being correct, should be lower than positives. We asked participants to pick the larger single-digit numeral in a pair and collected their implicit confidence with button pressure (button pressure was validated with three empirical signatures of confidence). We also modeled their choices with a drift-diffusion decision model to compute the post-decision estimate of being correct. We found that participants had relatively low confidence with negative numerals. Given that participants compared with high accuracy the basic base-10 symbols (0–9), reduced confidence may be a general feature of manipulating abstract negative numerals as they produce more uncertainty than positive numerals per unit of time.
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Project description:Every day we make choices under uncertainty; choosing what route to work or which queue in a supermarket to take, for example. It is unclear how outcome variance, e.g. uncertainty about waiting time in a queue, affects decisions and confidence when outcome is stochastic and continuous. How does one evaluate and choose between an option with unreliable but high expected reward, and an option with more certain but lower expected reward? Here we used an experimental design where two choices' payoffs took continuous values, to examine the effect of outcome variance on decision and confidence. We found that our participants' probability of choosing the good (high expected reward) option decreased when the good or the bad options' payoffs were more variable. Their confidence ratings were affected by outcome variability, but only when choosing the good option. Unlike perceptual detection tasks, confidence ratings correlated only weakly with decisions' time, but correlated with the consistency of trial-by-trial choices. Inspired by the satisficing heuristic, we propose a "stochastic satisficing" (SSAT) model for evaluating options with continuous uncertain outcomes. In this model, options are evaluated by their probability of exceeding an acceptability threshold, and confidence reports scale with the chosen option's thus-defined satisficing probability. Participants' decisions were best explained by an expected reward model, while the SSAT model provided the best prediction of decision confidence. We further tested and verified the predictions of this model in a second experiment. Our model and experimental results generalize the models of metacognition from perceptual detection tasks to continuous-value based decisions. Finally, we discuss how the stochastic satisficing account of decision confidence serves psychological and social purposes associated with the evaluation, communication and justification of decision-making.
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Project description:The leaky competing accumulator (LCA) is a biologically inspired model of choice. It describes the processes of leaky accumulation and competition observed in neuronal populations during choice tasks and it accounts for reaction time distributions observed in psychophysical experiments. This paper discusses recent analyses and extensions of the LCA model. First, it reviews the dynamics and examines the conditions that make the model achieve optimal performance. Second, it shows that nonlinearities of the type present in biological neurons improve performance when the number of choice alternatives increases. Third, the model is extended to value-based choice, where it is shown that nonlinearities in the value function explain risk aversion in risky choice and preference reversals in choice between alternatives characterized across multiple dimensions.
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Project description:Value-based decision making involves choosing from multiple options with different values. Despite extensive studies on value representation in various brain regions, the neural mechanism for how multiple value options are converted to motor actions remains unclear. To study this, we developed a multi-value foraging task with varying menu of items in non-human primates using eye movements that dissociates value and choice, and conducted electrophysiological recording in the midbrain superior colliculus (SC). SC neurons encoded "absolute" value, independent of available options, during late fixation. In addition, SC neurons also represent value threshold, modulated by available options, different from conventional motor threshold. Electrical stimulation of SC neurons biased choices in a manner predicted by the difference between the value representation and the value threshold. These results reveal a neural mechanism directly transforming absolute values to categorical choices within SC, supporting highly efficient value-based decision making critical for real-world economic behaviors.
| S-EPMC8184840 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There is a growing trend for biomedical researchers to extract evidence and draw conclusions from mass spectrometry based proteomics experiments, the cornerstone of which is peptide identification. Inaccurate assignments of peptide identification confidence thus may have far-reaching and adverse consequences. Although some peptide identification methods report accurate statistics, they have been limited to certain types of scoring function. The extreme value statistics based method, while more general in the scoring functions it allows, demands accurate parameter estimates and requires, at least in its original design, excessive computational resources. Improving the parameter estimate accuracy and reducing the computational cost for this method has two advantages: it provides another feasible route to accurate significance assessment, and it could provide reliable statistics for scoring functions yet to be developed.We have formulated and implemented an efficient algorithm for calculating the extreme value statistics for peptide identification applicable to various scoring functions, bypassing the need for searching large random databases.The source code, implemented in C?++?on a linux system, is available for download at ftp://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/qmbp/qmbp_ms/RAId/RAId_Linux_64Bityyu@ncbi.nlm.nih.govSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
| S-EPMC5939896 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models. Grelaud et al. [(2009) Bayesian Anal 3:427-442] advocated the use of ABC for model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random fields, relying on an intermodel sufficiency property to show that the approximation was legitimate. We implemented ABC model choice in a wide range of phylogenetic models in the Do It Yourself-ABC (DIY-ABC) software [Cornuet et al. (2008) Bioinformatics 24:2713-2719]. We now present arguments as to why the theoretical arguments for ABC model choice are missing, because the algorithm involves an unknown loss of information induced by the use of insufficient summary statistics. The approximation error of the posterior probabilities of the models under comparison may thus be unrelated with the computational effort spent in running an ABC algorithm. We then conclude that additional empirical verifications of the performances of the ABC procedure as those available in DIY-ABC are necessary to conduct model choice.
| S-EPMC3174657 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Why do we sometimes opt for actions or items that we do not value the most? Under current neurocomputational theories, such preference reversals are typically interpreted in terms of errors that arise from the unreliable signaling of value to brain decision systems. But, an alternative explanation is that people may change their mind because they are reassessing the value of alternative options while pondering the decision. So, why do we carefully ponder some decisions, but not others? In this work, we derive a computational model of the metacognitive control of decisions or MCD. In brief, we assume that fast and automatic processes first provide initial (and largely uncertain) representations of options' values, yielding prior estimates of decision difficulty. These uncertain value representations are then refined by deploying cognitive (e.g., attentional, mnesic) resources, the allocation of which is controlled by an effort-confidence tradeoff. Importantly, the anticipated benefit of allocating resources varies in a decision-by-decision manner according to the prior estimate of decision difficulty. The ensuing MCD model predicts response time, subjective feeling of effort, choice confidence, changes of mind, as well as choice-induced preference change and certainty gain. We test these predictions in a systematic manner, using a dedicated behavioral paradigm. Our results provide a quantitative link between mental effort, choice confidence, and preference reversals, which could inform interpretations of related neuroimaging findings.
| S-EPMC8128438 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding factors in internal medicine (IM) resident career choice may reveal important needed interventions for recruitment and diversity in IM primary care and its subspecialties. Self-reported learner confidence is higher in men than in women in certain areas of practicing medicine, but has never been explored as a factor in career choice.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study is to elucidate associations between confidence, gender, and career choice.DesignIM residents completed a 31-item survey rating confidence in procedural, clinical, and communication skills on a 9-point Likert scale. Residents also reported anticipated career choice and rated influence of factors. Associations between gender and confidence scale scores, gender and career choice, and confidence and career choice were analyzed using t tests, ANOVA, and multiple linear regression controlled for postgraduate year (PGY), institution, and specialty choice.Participants292 IM residents at Northwestern and University of Texas (UT) Southwestern MAIN MEASURES: Resident gender, self-reported confidence, career choice KEY RESULTS: Response rate was 79.6% (n = 292), of them 50.3% women. Overall self-reported confidence increased with training (PGY-1 4.9 (1.1); PGY-2 6.2 (1.0); PGY-3 7.4 (1.0); p < 0.001). Men had higher confidence than women (men 6.6 (1.5); women 6.3 (1.4), p = 0.06), with the greatest difference in procedures. High confidence in men was associated with choice of procedural careers, whereas there was no association between confidence and career in women.ConclusionsThis is the first study demonstrating a gender difference in self-reported confidence and career choice. There is a positive correlation in men: higher self-reported confidence with procedural specialties, lower with general internal medicine. Women's self-reported confidence had no association. Further investigation is needed to elucidate causative factors for differences in self-reported confidence by gender, and whether alterations in level of self-reported confidence produce a downstream effect on career choice.
| S-EPMC7947144 | biostudies-literature