A case study of an experiment during the COVID-19 pandemic: online elicitation of subjective beliefs and economic preferences
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Supplementary Information
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40881-021-00115-7.
SUBMITTER: Harrison G
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8684347 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic presents a remarkable opportunity to put to work all of the research that has been undertaken in past decades on the elicitation and structural estimation of subjective belief distributions as well as preferences over atemporal risk, patience, and intertemporal risk. As contributors to elements of that research in laboratories and the field, we drew together those methods and applied them to an online, incentivized experiment in the United States. We have two major findings. First, the atemporal risk premium during the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to change significantly compared to before the pandemic, consistent with theoretical results of the effect of increased background risk on foreground risk attitudes. Second, subjective beliefs about the cumulative level of deaths evolved dramatically over the period between May and November 2020, a volatile one in terms of the background evolution of the pandemic.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10683-021-09738-3.
| S-EPMC8736296 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Sleep is known to benefit consolidation of memories, especially those of motivational relevance. Yet, it remains largely unknown the extent to which sleep influences reward-associated behavior, in particular, whether and how sleep modulates reward evaluation that critically underlies value-based decisions. Here, we show that neural processing during sleep can selectively bias preferences in simple economic choices when the sleeper is stimulated by covert, reward-associated cues. Specifically, presenting the spoken name of a familiar, valued snack item during midday nap significantly improves the preference for that item relative to items not externally cued. The cueing-specific preference enhancement is sleep-dependent and can be predicted by cue-induced neurophysiological signals at the subject and item level. Computational modeling further suggests that sleep cueing accelerates evidence accumulation for cued options during the post-sleep choice process in a manner consistent with the preference shift. These findings suggest that neurocognitive processing during sleep contributes to the fine-tuning of subjective preferences in a flexible, selective manner.
| S-EPMC6294547 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Online learning has been widely promoted to replace traditional face-to-face learning during the COVID-19 pandemic to maintain young children's learning and play at home. This study surveyed 3275 Chinese parents' beliefs and attitudes around young children's online learning during the lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most parents (92.7%) in the study reported that their children had online learning experiences during the pandemic, and many (84.6%) spent less than a half-hour each time. The parents generally had negative beliefs about the values and benefits of online learning and preferred traditional learning in early childhood settings. They tended to resist and even reject online learning for three key reasons: the shortcomings of online learning, young children's inadequate self-regulation, and their lack of time and professional knowledge in supporting children's online learning. Also, the hardship caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has made them suffering, thus more resistant to online learning at home. The results suggested that the implementation of online learning during the pandemic has been problematic and challenging for families. The Chinese parents were neither trained nor ready to embrace online learning. The paper concluded with implications for policymakers and teacher education.
| S-EPMC7476883 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsTo explore the public's preference for psychological interventions through a discrete choice experiment and to provide references for formulating psychological intervention policies and establishing psychological intervention procedures in response to public health emergencies.MethodsThis study is a discrete choice experiment. Attributes and levels were identified through literature reviews, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and expert consultations. Experimental design principles were applied to generate choice sets containing different attribute levels and develop a survey instrument. Convenience sampling was conducted nationwide, and 1,045 participants were investigated. A mixed logit model was used to evaluate the public's preferences.ResultsAll attributes in our study were found to have a significant influence on the public's preferences for psychological interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The public's preferences for providers and duration were influenced by the public's levels of education and classifications. Furthermore, the most ideal scenario was found to be a one-on-one psychological intervention provided by family and friends through social network platforms, for which the frequency is twice per week, and the duration of each intervention is 0.5-1 h.ConclusionsThe public's preferences for psychological interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic are affected by the method, form, frequency, provider, and duration of interventions. Our findings provide references for the formulation of psychological intervention policies and the establishment of psychological intervention procedures in response to public health emergencies.
| S-EPMC9091726 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We investigated what degree of risk of infection with COVID-19 is necessary so that people intend to stay home, even when doing so means losing their salary. We conducted an online survey across Brazil during the initial outbreak, in which 8,345 participants answered a questionnaire designed to identify the maximum tolerated risk (k') necessary for them to disregard social distancing recommendations and guarantee their salaries. Generalized linear mixed models, path analysis structural equation, and conditional interference classification tree were performed to further understand how sociodemographic factors impact k' and to establish a predictive model for the risk behavior of leaving home during the pandemic. We found that, on average, people tolerate 38% risk of infection to leave home and earn a full salary, but this number decreased to 13% when the individual risk perception of becoming ill from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 is considered. Furthermore, participants who have a medium-to-high household income and who are older than 35 years are more likely to be part of the risk-taking group who leave home regardless of the potential COVID-19 infection level; while participants over 45 years old and with good financial health are more likely to be part of the risk-averse group, who stay home at the expense of any salary offered. Our findings add to the political and public debate concerning lockdown strategies by showing that, contrary to supposition, people with low socioeconomic status are not more likely to ignore social distancing recommendations due to personal economic matters.
| S-EPMC7815159 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The need to control the sanitary situation during the COVID-19 pandemic has led governments to implement several restrictions with substantial social and economic impacts. We explored people's trade-offs in terms of their income, life restrictions, education, and poverty in the society, compared to their willingness to avoid deaths. We applied a web-based discrete choice experiment to elicit preferences of the Portuguese citizens for these attributes and computed the marginal rate of substitution in terms of avoided deaths. We recorded 2,191 responses that faced the possibility of having 250 COVID-19 related deaths per day as the worst possible outcome from the choice levels presented. Estimates suggested that individuals would be willing to sacrifice 30% instead of 10% of their income to avoid approximately 47 deaths per day during the first six months of 2021. For the same period, they would also accept 30% of the students' population to become educationally impaired, instead of 10%, to avoid approximately 25 deaths; a strict lockdown, instead of mild life restrictions, to avoid approximately 24 deaths; and 45% of the population to be in risk of poverty, instead of 25%, to avoid approximately 101 deaths. Our paper shows that avoiding deaths was strongly preferred to the remaining societal impacts; and that being a female, as well as working on site, led individuals to be more averse to such health hazards. Furthermore, we show how a DCE can be used to assess the societal support to decision-making during times of crisis.
| S-EPMC9757580 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesAs governments attempt to navigate a path out of COVID-19 restrictions, robust evidence is essential to inform requirements for public acceptance of technologically enhanced communicable disease surveillance systems. We examined the value of core surveillance system attributes to the Australian public, before and during the early stages of the current pandemic.DesignA discrete choice experiment was conducted in Australia with a representative group of respondents, before and after the WHO declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. We identified and investigated the relative importance of seven attributes associated with technologically enhanced disease surveillance: respect for personal autonomy; privacy/confidentiality; data certainty/confidence; data security; infectious disease mortality prevention; infectious disease morbidity prevention; and attribution of (causal) responsibility. Specifically, we explored how the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak influenced participant responses.Setting and participants2008 Australians (general public) completed the experiment: 793 before COVID-19 outbreak onset (mean age 45.9 years, 50.2% male) and 1215 after onset (mean age 47.2 years, 49% male).ResultsAll seven attributes significantly influenced respondents' preferences for communicable disease surveillance systems. After onset, participants demonstrated greater preference for a surveillance system that could prevent a higher number of illnesses and deaths, and were less concerned about their personal autonomy. However, they also increased their preference for a system with high data security.ConclusionsPublic acceptance of technology-based communicable disease surveillance is situation dependent. During an epidemic, there is likely to be greater tolerance of technologically enhanced disease surveillance systems that result in restrictions on personal activity if such systems can prevent high morbidity and mortality. However, this acceptance of lower personal autonomy comes with an increased requirement to ensure data security. These findings merit further research as the pandemic unfolds and strategies are put in place that enable individuals and societies to live with SARS-CoV-2 endemicity.
| S-EPMC7677347 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8875867 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInformation on the public's preferences for current public health and social measures (PHSMs) and people's mental health under PHSMs is insufficient.ObjectiveThis study aimed to quantify the public's preferences for varied PHSMs and measure the level of pandemic fatigue in the COVID-19 normalization stage in China.MethodsA nationwide cross-sectional study with a discrete choice experiment and psychometric scales was conducted to assess public preferences for and attitudes toward PHSMs, using the quota sampling method. The COVID-19 Pandemic Fatigue Scale (CPFS) was used to screen fatigue levels among respondents. The multinomial logit model, latent class model, and Mann-Whitney test were used for statistical analysis. We also conducted subgroup analysis based on sex, age, monthly income, mental health status, and pandemic fatigue status.ResultsA total of 689 respondents across China completed the survey. The discrete choice experiment revealed that respondents attached the greatest importance to the risk of COVID-19 infection within 3 months (45.53%), followed by loss of income within 3 months (30.69%). Vulnerable populations (low-income populations and elderly people) were more sensitive to the risk of infection, while younger respondents were more sensitive to income loss and preferred nonsuspension of social places and transportation. Migrants and those with pandemic fatigue had less acceptance of the mandatory booster vaccination and suspension of transportation. Additionally, a higher pandemic fatigue level was observed in female respondents, younger respondents, migrants, and relatively lower-income respondents (CPFS correlation with age: r=-0.274, P<.001; correlation with monthly income: r=-0.25, P<.001). Mandatory booster COVID-19 vaccination was also not preferred by respondents with a higher level of pandemic fatigue, while universal COVID-19 booster vaccination was preferred by respondents with a lower level of pandemic fatigue.ConclusionsPandemic fatigue is widely prevalent in respondents across China, and respondents desired the resumption of normal social life while being confronted with the fear of COVID-19 infection in the normalization stage of COVID-19 in China. During future pandemics, the mental burden and adherence of residents should be considered for the proper implementation of PHSMs.
| S-EPMC11240073 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Elicitation methods aim to build participants' distributions about a parameter of interest. In most elicitation studies this parameter is rarely known in advance and hinders an objective comparison between elicitation methods. In two experiments, participants were first presented with a fixed random sequence of images and numbers and subsequently their subjective distributions of percentages of one of those numbers was elicited. Importantly, the true percentage was set in advance. The first experiment tested whether receiving instructions as to the elicitation method would assist in estimating a true value more accurately than receiving no instructions and whether accuracy was determined by the numerical skills of the participants. The second experiment sought to compare the elicitation method used in the first experiment with a variation of a graphical elicitation method. The results indicate that (i) receiving instructions as to the elicitation method does assist in producing estimates closer to a true percentage value, (ii) the level of numerical skills does not play a part in the accuracy of the estimation (Experiment 1), and (iii) although the average estimates of the betting and graphical method are not significantly different, the betting method leads to more precise estimations than the graphical method (Experiment 2). Both studies featured statistical procedures (functional data analysis and a novel clustering technique) not considered in past research on the elicitation of subjective distributions. The implications of these results are discussed in relation to a recent key study.
| S-EPMC6489894 | biostudies-other