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Clinical Nomogram to Predict Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients within 1 Year of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to summarize the clinical characteristics and risk factors of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients who had had acute myocardial infarction (AMI) within 1 year of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). A total of 421 AMI patients who were treated with PCI and experienced MACEs within 1 year of their admission were included in this retrospective study. In addition, patients were matched for age, sex, and presentation with 561 patients after AMI who had not had MACEs. The clinical characteristics and risk factors for MACEs within 1 year in AMI patients were investigated, to develop a nomogram for MACEs based on univariate and multivariate analyses. The C statistic was used to assess the discriminative performance of the nomogram. In addition, calibration curve and decision curve analyses were conducted to validate the calibration performance and utility, respectively, of the nomogram. After univariate and multivariate analyses, a nomogram was constructed based on age (odds ratio (OR): 1.030; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.014-1.047), diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.667; 95% CI: 1.151-2.415), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR: 1.332; 95% CI: 1.134-1.565), uric acid (OR: 1.003; 95% CI: 1.001-1.005), lipoprotein (a) (OR: 1.003; 95% CI: 1.002-1.003), left ventricular ejection fraction (OR: 0.929; 95% CI: 0.905-0.954), Syntax score (OR: 1.075; 95% CI: 1.053-1.097), and hypersensitive troponin T (OR: 1.002; 95% CI: 1.002-1.003). The C statistic was 0.814. The calibration curve showed good concordance of the nomogram, while decision curve analysis demonstrated satisfactory positive net benefits. We developed a convenient, practical, and effective prediction model for predicting MACEs in AMI patients within 1 year of PCI. To ensure generalizability, this model requires external validation.

SUBMITTER: Pan D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8687843 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportancePatients who survive acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have a high risk of subsequent major cardiovascular events. Efforts to identify risk factors for recurrence have primarily focused on the period immediately following AMI admission.ObjectivesTo identify risk factors and develop and evaluate a risk model that predicts 1-year cardiovascular events after AMI.Design, setting, and participantsProspective cohort study. Patients with AMI (n?=?4227), aged 18 years or older, discharged alive from 53 acute-care hospitals across China from January 1, 2013, to July 17, 2014. Patients were randomly divided into samples: training (50% [2113 patients]), test (25% [1057 patients]), and validation (25% [1057 patients]). Risk factors were identified by a Cox model with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and further evaluated by latent class analysis. Analyses were conducted from May 1, 2017, to January 21, 2018.Main outcomes and measuresMajor cardiovascular events, including recurrent AMI, stroke, heart failure, and death, within 1 year after discharge for the index AMI hospitalization.ResultsThe mean (SD) age of the cohort was 60.8 (11.8) years and 994 of 4227 patients (23.5%) were female. Common comorbidities included hypertension (2358 patients [55.8%]), coronary heart disease (1798 patients [42.5%]), and dyslipidemia (1290 patients [30.5%]). One-year event rates were 8.1% (95% CI, 6.91%-9.24%), 9.0% (95% CI, 7.22%-10.70%), and 6.4% (95% CI, 4.89%-7.85%) for the training, test, and validation samples, respectively. Nineteen risk factors comprising 15 unique variables (age, education, prior AMI, prior ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation, hypertension, angina, prearrival medical assistance, >4 hours from onset of symptoms to admission, ejection fraction, renal dysfunction, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, white blood cell count, blood glucose, and in-hospital complications) were identified. In the training, test, and validation samples, respectively, the risk model had C statistics of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75-0.83), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.68-0.78), and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.70-0.83) and a predictive range of 1.2% to 33.9%, 1.2% to 37.9%, and 1.3% to 34.3%. The C statistic was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.65-0.74) for the latent class model in the training data. The risk model stratified 11.3%, 81.0%, and 7.7% of patients to high-, average-, and low-risk groups, with respective probabilities of 0.32, 0.06, and 0.01 for 1-year events.Conclusions and relevanceNineteen risk factors were identified, and a model was developed and evaluated to predict risk of 1-year cardiovascular events after AMI. This may aid clinicians in identifying high-risk patients who would benefit most from intensive follow-up and aggressive risk factor reduction.

Project description:ImportanceGuidelines currently recommend ticagrelor over clopidogrel for patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) based on randomized clinical trial data in which ticagrelor reduced major adverse coronary events (MACE) vs clopidogrel but increased bleeding and dyspnea.ObjectiveTo compare the risk of MACE with ticagrelor vs clopidogrel in patients with ACS treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), to compare major bleeding and dyspnea, and to evaluate the association between P2Y12 inhibitor adherence and MACE.Design, setting, and participantsPopulation-based cohort study using data of patients discharged alive after PCI for ACS from the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcome Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease registry from April 1, 2012, to March 31, 2016, with follow-up to 1 year. Analysis began April 2018.ExposuresOutpatient prescription for ticagrelor or clopidogrel within 31 days after PCI. Adherence was defined as a medication refill adherence value of 80% or higher.Main outcomes and measuresMajor adverse coronary events, a composite of all-cause death, hospitalization for ACS, unplanned coronary revascularization, or stent thrombosis within 365 days after index PCI. Secondary outcomes included hospitalization for major bleeding and emergency department visit for dyspnea.ResultsOf 11 185 individuals who underwent PCI, the median (interquartile range) age was 61 (54-71) years, and 2760 (24.7%) were women. Ticagrelor users (4076 [36.4%]) were generally younger and had fewer cardiac and noncardiac comorbidities than clopidogrel users. Ticagrelor was not associated with lower risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.85-1.10); however, it was associated with an increased risk of major bleeding (aHR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.29-1.78) and dyspnea (aHR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.47-2.65). A total of 3328 ticagrelor users (81.6%) were adherent during the study vs 5256 of clopidogrel users (73.9%) (P < .001; χ2 = 86.4). In the full cohort, adherence was associated with a lower MACE risk (aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69-0.90 for adherence of ≥80% vs <80%). Differences in other secondary outcomes were not statistically significant. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were consistent with primary analyses.Conclusions and relevanceIn this population-based cohort study of patients with ACS who underwent PCI, outpatient use of ticagrelor was not associated with a statistically significant reduction in MACE vs clopidogrel; however, it was associated with more major bleeding and dyspnea.

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Clinical Nomogram to Predict Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients within 1 Year of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

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