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Updating the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator with Invasive Cribriform and/or Intraductal Carcinoma for Men with a Prior Negative Biopsy.

ABSTRACT: The Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (RPCRC) is a well-validated tool for upfront risk stratification to reduce the number of prostate biopsies and magnetic resonance imaging scans among both biopsy-naïve and previously biopsied men. The presence of invasive cribriform and/or intraductal carcinoma (CR/IDC) identifies men with aggressive grade group (GG) 2 tumors. This finding was recently incorporated in the RPCRC for biopsy-naïve men to predict the probability of no PCa, indolent PCa (GG 1 disease and GG 2 disease without CR/IDC), and clinically significant PCa (csPCa: GG 2 disease with CR/IDC and higher). The aim of the current study was to update the RPCRC for men with a previous negative biopsy with the presence of CR/IDC. A total of 2215 men were eligible for analyses, of whom 1776 (80%) were not diagnosed with PCa, 358 (16%) were diagnosed with indolent PCa, and 81 (4%) were diagnosed with csPCa according to the original 2014 Gleason grading. The optimism-corrected area under the curve was 0.69 for any PCa and 0.77 for csPCa. With a threshold of 10% for indolent PCa or 1% for csPCa, 20% of all prostate biopsies could be avoided and 2% of all csPCa cases would be missed. Our results support upfront risk stratification with the updated RPCRC.

Patient summary

Risk stratification for men without a prior diagnosis of prostate cancer can reduce the number of prostate biopsies and magnetic resonance imaging scans carried out in this patient population. Our study shows that it is possible to update the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator for men with a previous negative biopsy with the presence of invasive cribriform and/or intraductal carcinoma.

SUBMITTER: Remmers S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8693011 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundExternal validation of risk calculators (RCs) is necessary to determine their clinical applicability beyond the setting in which these were developed.ObjectiveTo assess the performance of the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer RC (RPCRC) and the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group RC (PBCG-RC).Design setting and participantsWe used data from the prospective, population-based STHLM3 screening study, performed in 2012-2015. Participants with prostate-specific antigen ≥3 ng/ml who underwent systematic prostate biopsies were included.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisProbabilities for clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa), defined as International Society of Urological Pathology grade ≥2, were calculated for each participant. External validity was assessed by calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness for both original and recalibrated models.Results and limitationsOut of 5841 men, 1054 (18%) had csPCa. Distribution of risk predictions differed between RCs; median risks for csPCa using the RPCRC and PBCG-RC were 3.3% (interquartile range [IQR] 2.1-7.1%) and 20% (IQR 15-28%), respectively. The correlation between RC risk estimates on individual level was moderate (Spearman's r = 0.55). Using the RPCRC's recommended risk threshold of ≥4% for finding csPCa, 36% of participants would get concordant biopsy recommendations. At 10% risk cut-off, RCs agreed in 23% of cases. Both RCs showed good discrimination, with areas under the curves for the RPCRC of 0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-0.76) and the PBCG-RC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.68-0.72). Calibration was adequate using the PBCG-RC (calibration slope: 1.13 [95% CI 1.03-1.23]), but the RPCRC underestimated the risk of csPCa (calibration slope: 0.73 [0.68-0.79]). The PBCG-RC showed a net benefit in a decision curve analysis, whereas the RPCRC showed no net benefit at clinically relevant risk threshold levels. Recalibration improved clinical benefit, and differences between RCs decreased.ConclusionsAssessment of calibration is essential to ensure the clinical value of risk prediction tools. The PBCG-RC provided clinical benefit in its current version online. On the contrary, the RPCRC cannot be recommended in this setting.Patient summaryPredicting the probability of finding prostate cancer on biopsy differed between two assessed risk calculators. After recalibration, the agreement of the models improved, and both were shown to be clinically useful.

Dataset Information

Updating the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator with Invasive Cribriform and/or Intraductal Carcinoma for Men with a Prior Negative Biopsy.

Patient summary

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