Predictive Machine Learning Models and Survival Analysis for COVID-19 Prognosis Based on Hematochemical Parameters.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Altini N
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8705488 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundAccurate and timely diagnosis and effective prognosis of the disease is important to provide the best possible care for patients with COVID-19 and reduce the burden on the health care system. Machine learning methods can play a vital role in the diagnosis of COVID-19 by processing chest x-ray images.ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to summarize information on the use of intelligent models for the diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 to help with early and timely diagnosis, minimize prolonged diagnosis, and improve overall health care.MethodsA systematic search of databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, IEEE, ProQuest, Scopus, bioRxiv, and medRxiv, was performed for COVID-19-related studies published up to May 24, 2020. This study was performed in accordance with the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) guidelines. All original research articles describing the application of image processing for the prediction and diagnosis of COVID-19 were considered in the analysis. Two reviewers independently assessed the published papers to determine eligibility for inclusion in the analysis. Risk of bias was evaluated using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool.ResultsOf the 629 articles retrieved, 44 articles were included. We identified 4 prognosis models for calculating prediction of disease severity and estimation of confinement time for individual patients, and 40 diagnostic models for detecting COVID-19 from normal or other pneumonias. Most included studies used deep learning methods based on convolutional neural networks, which have been widely used as a classification algorithm. The most frequently reported predictors of prognosis in patients with COVID-19 included age, computed tomography data, gender, comorbidities, symptoms, and laboratory findings. Deep convolutional neural networks obtained better results compared with non-neural network-based methods. Moreover, all of the models were found to be at high risk of bias due to the lack of information about the study population, intended groups, and inappropriate reporting.ConclusionsMachine learning models used for the diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 showed excellent discriminative performance. However, these models were at high risk of bias, because of various reasons such as inadequate information about study participants, randomization process, and the lack of external validation, which may have resulted in the optimistic reporting of these models. Hence, our findings do not recommend any of the current models to be used in practice for the diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8074953 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe large number of SARS-Cov-2 cases during the COVID-19 global pandemic has burdened healthcare systems and created a shortage of resources and services. In recent years, mortality prediction models have shown a potential in alleviating this issue; however, these models are susceptible to biases in specific subpopulations with different risks of mortality, such as patients with prior history of smoking. The current study aims to develop a machine learning-based mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients that have a history of smoking in the Iranian population.MethodsA retrospective study was conducted across six medical centers between 18 and 2020 and 15 March 2022, comprised of 678 CT scans and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients that had a history of smoking. Multiple machine learning models were developed using 10-fold cross-validation. The target variable was in-hospital mortality and input features included patient demographics, levels of care, vital signs, medications, and comorbidities. Two sets of models were developed for at-admission and post-admission predictions. Subsequently, the top five prediction models were selected from at-admission models and post-admission models and their probabilities were calibrated.ResultsThe in-hospital mortality rate for smoker COVID-19 patients was 20.1%. For "at admission" models, the best-calibrated model was XGBoost which yielded an accuracy of 87.5% and F1 score of 86.2%. For the "post-admission" models, XGBoost also outperformed the rest with an accuracy of 90.5% and F1 score of 89.9%. Active smoking was among the most important features in patients' mortality prediction.ConclusionOur machine learning-based mortality prediction models have the potential to be adapted for improving the management of smoker COVID-19 patients and predicting patients' chance of survival.
| S-EPMC10360290 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 is the disease evoked by a new breed of coronavirus called the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Recently, COVID-19 has become a pandemic by infecting more than 152 million people in over 216 countries and territories. The exponential increase in the number of infections has rendered traditional diagnosis techniques inefficient. Therefore, many researchers have developed several intelligent techniques, such as deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML), which can assist the healthcare sector in providing quick and precise COVID-19 diagnosis. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the most recent DL and ML techniques for COVID-19 diagnosis. The studies are published from December 2019 until April 2021. In general, this paper includes more than 200 studies that have been carefully selected from several publishers, such as IEEE, Springer and Elsevier. We classify the research tracks into two categories: DL and ML and present COVID-19 public datasets established and extracted from different countries. The measures used to evaluate diagnosis methods are comparatively analysed and proper discussion is provided. In conclusion, for COVID-19 diagnosing and outbreak prediction, SVM is the most widely used machine learning mechanism, and CNN is the most widely used deep learning mechanism. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity are the most widely used measurements in previous studies. Finally, this review paper will guide the research community on the upcoming development of machine learning for COVID-19 and inspire their works for future development. This review paper will guide the research community on the upcoming development of ML and DL for COVID-19 and inspire their works for future development.
| S-EPMC8420483 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Diabetes Mellitus is an increasingly prevalent chronic disease characterized by the body's inability to metabolize glucose. The objective of this study was to build an effective predictive model with high sensitivity and selectivity to better identify Canadian patients at risk of having Diabetes Mellitus based on patient demographic data and the laboratory results during their visits to medical facilities. METHODS:Using the most recent records of 13,309 Canadian patients aged between 18 and 90 years, along with their laboratory information (age, sex, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein), we built predictive models using Logistic Regression and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) techniques. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) was used to evaluate the discriminatory capability of these models. We used the adjusted threshold method and the class weight method to improve sensitivity - the proportion of Diabetes Mellitus patients correctly predicted by the model. We also compared these models to other learning machine techniques such as Decision Tree and Random Forest. RESULTS:The AROC for the proposed GBM model is 84.7% with a sensitivity of 71.6% and the AROC for the proposed Logistic Regression model is 84.0% with a sensitivity of 73.4%. The GBM and Logistic Regression models perform better than the Random Forest and Decision Tree models. CONCLUSIONS:The ability of our model to predict patients with Diabetes using some commonly used lab results is high with satisfactory sensitivity. These models can be built into an online computer program to help physicians in predicting patients with future occurrence of diabetes and providing necessary preventive interventions. The model is developed and validated on the Canadian population which is more specific and powerful to apply on Canadian patients than existing models developed from US or other populations. Fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides were the most important predictors in these models.
| S-EPMC6794897 | biostudies-other
Project description:Breast cancer death rates are higher than any other cancer in American women. Machine learning-based predictive models promise earlier detection techniques for breast cancer diagnosis. However, making an evaluation for models that efficiently diagnose cancer is still challenging. In this work, we proposed data exploratory techniques (DET) and developed four different predictive models to improve breast cancer diagnostic accuracy. Prior to models, four-layered essential DET, e.g., feature distribution, correlation, elimination, and hyperparameter optimization, were deep-dived to identify the robust feature classification into malignant and benign classes. These proposed techniques and classifiers were implemented on the Wisconsin Diagnostic Breast Cancer (WDBC) and Breast Cancer Coimbra Dataset (BCCD) datasets. Standard performance metrics, including confusion matrices and K-fold cross-validation techniques, were applied to assess each classifier's efficiency and training time. The models' diagnostic capability improved with our DET, i.e., polynomial SVM gained 99.3%, LR with 98.06%, KNN acquired 97.35%, and EC achieved 97.61% accuracy with the WDBC dataset. We also compared our significant results with previous studies in terms of accuracy. The implementation procedure and findings can guide physicians to adopt an effective model for a practical understanding and prognosis of breast cancer tumors.
| S-EPMC8949437 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on public life and health worldwide, putting the world's healthcare systems at risk. The first step in stopping this outbreak is to detect the infection in its early stages, which will relieve the risk, control the outbreak's spread, and restore full functionality to the world's healthcare systems. Currently, PCR is the most prevalent diagnosis tool for COVID-19. However, chest X-ray images may play an essential role in detecting this disease, as they are successful for many other viral pneumonia diseases. Unfortunately, there are common features between COVID-19 and other viral pneumonia, and hence manual differentiation between them seems to be a critical problem and needs the aid of artificial intelligence. This research employs deep- and transfer-learning techniques to develop accurate, general, and robust models for detecting COVID-19. The developed models utilize either convolutional neural networks or transfer-learning models or hybridize them with powerful machine-learning techniques to exploit their full potential. For experimentation, we applied the proposed models to two data sets: the COVID-19 Radiography Database from Kaggle and a local data set from Asir Hospital, Abha, Saudi Arabia. The proposed models achieved promising results in detecting COVID-19 cases and discriminating them from normal and other viral pneumonia with excellent accuracy. The hybrid models extracted features from the flatten layer or the first hidden layer of the neural network and then fed these features into a classification algorithm. This approach enhanced the results further to full accuracy for binary COVID-19 classification and 97.8% for multiclass classification.
| S-EPMC8357494 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAccurately forecasting the prognosis could improve cervical cancer management, however, the currently used clinical features are difficult to provide enough information. The aim of this study is to improve forecasting capability by developing a miRNAs-based machine learning survival prediction model.ResultsThe expression characteristics of miRNAs were chosen as features for model development. The cervical cancer miRNA expression data was obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. Preprocessing, including unquantified data removal, missing value imputation, samples normalization, log transformation, and feature scaling, was performed. In total, 42 survival-related miRNAs were identified by Cox Proportional-Hazards analysis. The patients were optimally clustered into four groups with three different 5-years survival outcome (≥ 90%, ≈ 65%, ≤ 40%) by K-means clustering algorithm base on top 10 survival-related miRNAs. According to the K-means clustering result, a prediction model with high performance was established. The pathways analysis indicated that the miRNAs used play roles involved in the regulation of cancer stem cells.ConclusionA miRNAs-based machine learning cervical cancer survival prediction model was developed that robustly stratifies cervical cancer patients into high survival rate (5-years survival rate ≥ 90%), moderate survival rate (5-years survival rate ≈ 65%), and low survival rate (5-years survival rate ≤ 40%).
| S-EPMC8207793 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and aimsIdentification of SARS-CoV-2-infected patients at high-risk of poor prognosis is crucial. We aimed to establish predictive models for COVID-19 pneumonia severity in hospitalized patients.MethodsRetrospective study of 430 patients admitted in Vall d'Hebron Hospital (Barcelona) between 03-12-2020 and 04-28-2020 due to COVID-19 pneumonia. Two models to identify the patients who required high-flow-oxygen-support were generated, one using baseline data and another with also follow-up analytical results. Calibration was performed by a 1000-bootstrap replication model.Results249 were male, mean age 57.9 years. Overall, 135 (31.4%) required high-flow-oxygen-support. The baseline predictive model showed a ROC of 0.800 based on: SpO2/FiO2 (adjusted Hazard Ratio-aHR = 8), chest x-ray (aHR = 4), prior immunosuppressive therapy (aHR = 4), obesity (aHR = 2), IL-6 (aHR = 2), platelets (aHR = 0.5). The cut-off of 11 presented a specificity of 94.8%. The second model included changes on the analytical parameters: ferritin (aHR = 7.5 if ?200ng/mL) and IL-6 (aHR = 18 if ?64pg/mL) plus chest x-ray (aHR = 2) showing a ROC of 0.877. The cut-off of 12 exhibited a negative predictive value of 92%.ConclusionsSpO2/FiO2 and chest x-ray on admission or changes on inflammatory parameters as IL-6 and ferritin allow us early identification of COVID-19 patients at risk of high-flow-oxygen-support that may benefit from a more intensive disease management.
| S-EPMC7769554 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of this observational retrospective study is to improve early risk stratification of hospitalized Covid-19 patients by predicting in-hospital mortality, transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) and mechanical ventilation from electronic health record data of the first 24 h after admission. Our machine learning model predicts in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.918), transfer to ICU (AUC = 0.821) and the need for mechanical ventilation (AUC = 0.654) from a few laboratory data of the first 24 h after admission. Models based on dichotomous features indicating whether a laboratory value exceeds or falls below a threshold perform nearly as good as models based on numerical features. We devise completely data-driven and interpretable machine-learning models for the prediction of in-hospital mortality, transfer to ICU and mechanical ventilation for hospitalized Covid-19 patients within 24 h after admission. Numerical values of. CRP and blood sugar and dichotomous indicators for increased partial thromboplastin time (PTT) and glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (GOT) are amongst the best predictors.
| S-EPMC9890886 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mucormycosis, a rare infection is caused by fungi Mucorales. The affiliation of mucormycosis with Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a rising issue of concern in India. There have been numerous case reports of association of rhino-cerebral-orbital, angioinvasive, pulmonary, respiratory and gastrointestinal tract related mucormycosis in patients with history of COVID-19. The immune dysregulation, preposterous use of steroids, interleukin-6-directed therapies and mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 immunocompromised individuals hypothesizes and predisposes to advancement of mucormycosis. The gaps in mode of presentation, disease course, diagnosis and treatment of post-COVID-19 mucormycosis requires critical analysis in order to control its morbidity and incidence and for prevention and management of opportunistic infections in COVID-19 patients. Our study performs machine learning, systems biology and bioinformatics analysis of post-COVID-19 mucormycosis in India incorporating multitudinous techniques. Text mining identifies candidate characteristics of post-COVID-19 mucormycosis cases including city, gender, age, symptoms, clinical parameters, microorganisms and treatment. The characteristics are incorporated in a machine learning based disease model resulting in predictive potentiality of characteristics of post-COVID-19 mucormycosis. The characteristics are used to create a host-microbe interaction disease network comprising of interactions between microorganism, host-microbe proteins, non-specific markers, symptoms and drugs resulting in candidate molecules. R1A (Replicase polyprotein 1a) and RPS6 (Ribosomal Protein S6) are yielded as potential drug target and biomarker respectively via potentiality analysis and expression in patients. The potential risk factors, drug target and biomarker can serve as prognostic, early diagnostic and therapeutic molecules in post-COVID-19 mucormycosis requiring further experimental validation and analysis on post-COVID-19 mucormycosis cases.
| S-EPMC8631048 | biostudies-literature