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Model-Based Planning and Delivery of Mass Vaccination Campaigns against Infectious Disease: Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic in the UK.

ABSTRACT: Vaccination plays a key role in reducing morbidity and mortality caused by infectious diseases, including the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, a comprehensive approach that allows the planning of vaccination campaigns and the estimation of the resources required to deliver and administer COVID-19 vaccines is lacking. This work implements a new framework that supports the planning and delivery of vaccination campaigns. Firstly, the framework segments and priorities target populations, then estimates vaccination timeframe and workforce requirements, and lastly predicts logistics costs and facilitates the distribution of vaccines from manufacturing plants to vaccination centres. The outcomes from this study reveal the necessary resources required and their associated costs ahead of a vaccination campaign. Analysis of results shows that by integrating demand stratification, administration, and the supply chain, the synergy amongst these activities can be exploited to allow planning and cost-effective delivery of a vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and demonstrates how to sustain high rates of vaccination in a resource-efficient fashion.

SUBMITTER: Ibrahim D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8706890 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Recent research in two cholera-endemic communities of Zanzibar has shown that a majority (?94%) of the adult population was willing to receive free oral cholera vaccines (OCVs). Since OCV uptake in the 2009 campaign reached only ?50% in these communities, an evaluation of social and cultural factors and of barriers was conducted to understand this difference for future cholera control planning. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A random sample of 367 adult peri-urban and rural community residents (46.6% immunized vs. 53.4% unimmunized) was studied with a semi-structured interview that inquired about social and cultural features of cholera depicted in a vignette and barriers to OCV uptake. Symptoms (rectal pain, loose skin only in rural community) and perceived causes (uncovered food, contact with contaminated water) specific for severe diarrhea were associated with uptake. Purchasing drugs from pharmacies to stop diarrhea and vomiting was negatively associated with uptake. Increasing household size, age and previous enteric illness episode were positively related to uptake, the latter only at the rural site. The most prominent barrier to uptake was competing obligations or priorities (reported by 74.5%, identified as most important barrier by 49.5%). Next most prominent barriers were lacking information about the campaign (29.6%, 12.2%), sickness (14.3%, 13.3%) and fear of possible vaccine side effects (15.3%, 5.6%). The majority of unvaccinated respondents requested repetition of the vaccination with free OCVs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Factors associated with uptake indicated a positive impact of the vaccination campaign and of sensitization activities on vaccine acceptance behavior. Unlike communities opposed to cholera control or settings where public confidence in vaccines is lacking, identified barriers to uptake indicated a good campaign implementation and trust in the health system. Despite prospects and demand for repeating the vaccination, local decision-makers should reconsider how careful logistical arrangements may improve community coverage and thus effectiveness of vaccination campaigns.

Project description:Adequate vaccination coverage of free roaming dogs (FRD) against canine rabies is not achieved primarily due to difficulties in administering parenteral vaccinations to this population. One factor associated with this difficulty is the tendency of FRD to form groups, which increases their aggressive behavior, resulting in a significant risk of dog-bites for the vaccinators. This study investigated factors that influenced FRD forming groups and their home-ranges, using data obtained from photographic capture-recapture/sight-resight surveys conducted in rural Shirsuphal (584 sightings) and urban Panchkula (3208 sightings), India. In the rural site, older dogs (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2-0.9, p = 0.03) and FRD sighted within 20 m of garbage sites (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4-0.9, p = 0.02) were less likely to be in groups. The number of dogs sighted with an FRD decreased with increased resight-probability of that dog (?= -1.0, p < 0.001). The rural FRD with smaller home-ranges were more likely to be sighted alone (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0-95, p = 0.04) than those with larger home-ranges. In the urban site, females (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5, p = 0.002) and older dogs (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.1, p = 0.07) were more likely to be found in groups, and groups of dogs were more likely to be seen within 20 meters of garbage sites (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5-2.0, p < 0.001). The distribution of urban FRD sighted alone, in pairs, triads, and in packs of ?4 dogs were not random in the administrative (p = 0.02), and the two industrial (p = 0.03 & 0.01) survey tracks of the urban site, implying stable groups. The resighting probability of a dog (? = 0.3, p < 0.0001) and presence of garbage within 20 m (? = 0.2, p < 0.0001) in the urban site increased the likelihood of sighting a FRD with other dogs. It is concluded that data on the resighting probability, presence of garbage points, and home-ranges can be utilised to guide the selection of parenteral or oral rabies vaccination to achieve a population vaccination coverage of 70% to break the transmission cycle of rabies virus in FRD in India.

Dataset Information

Model-Based Planning and Delivery of Mass Vaccination Campaigns against Infectious Disease: Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic in the UK.

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