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Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Coronary Artery Ectasia.

ABSTRACT: Coronary artery ectasia (CAE) is a rare finding and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. However, prognostic factors are not well studied and no prognostication tool is available. In a derivation set comprising 729 consecutive CAE patients between January 2009 and June 2014, a nomogram was developed using Cox regression. Total of 399 patients from July 2014 to December 2015 formed the validation set. The primary outcome was 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a component of cardiovascular death and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Besides the clinical factors, we used quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) and defined QCA classification of four types, according to max diameter (< or ≥5 mm) and max length ratio (ratio of lesion length to vessel length, < or ≥1/3) of the dilated lesion. A total of 27 cardiovascular deaths and 41 nonfatal myocardial infarctions occurred at 5-year follow-up. The nomogram effectively predicted 5-year MACE risk using predictors including age, prior PCI, high sensitivity C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and QCA classification (area under curve [AUC] 0.75, 95% CI 0.68-0.82 in the derivation set; AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.56-0.86 in the validation set). Patients were classified as high-risk if prognostic scores were ≥155 and the Kaplan-Meier curves were well separated (log-rank p < 0.001 in both sets). Calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated similarity between predicted and actual 5-year MACE survival (p = 0.90 in the derivation and p = 0.47 in the validation set). This study developed and validated a simple-to-use method for assessing 5-year MACE risk in patients with CAE.

SUBMITTER: Cai Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8708195 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundCoronary artery ectasia (CAE) is a rare finding in coronary angiography and associated with poor clinical outcomes. Unlike atherosclerosis, diabetes mellitus (DM) is not commonly associated with CAE. This study aims to investigate the effect of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) on coronary artery ectasia, especially the differences in angiographic characteristics and clinical outcomes.MethodsPatients with angiographically confirmed CAE from 2009 to 2015 were included. Quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) was performed to measure the diameter and length of the dilated lesion. The primary endpoint was the maximum diameter and maximum length of the dilated lesion at baseline coronary angiography. The secondary endpoint was 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), which was a component of cardiovascular death and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). Propensity score weighting (PSW) and propensity score matching (PSM) were used to balance covariates. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression were performed to assess the clinical outcomes.ResultsA total of 1128 patients were included and 258 were combined with DM2. In the DM2 group, the maximum diameter of dilated lesion was significantly lower (5.26 mm vs. 5.47 mm, P = 0.004) and the maximum length of the dilated lesion was significantly shorter (25.20 mm vs. 31.34 mm, P = 0.002). This reduction in dilated lesion diameter (5.26 mm vs. 5.41 mm, P = 0.050 in PSW; 5.26 mm vs. 5.46 mm, P = 0.007 in PSM, respectively) and length (25.17 mm vs. 30.17 mm, P = 0.010 in PSW; 25.20 mm vs. 30.81 mm, P = 0.012 in PSM, respectively) was consistently observed in the propensity score analysis. A total of 27 cardiovascular deaths and 41 myocardial infarctions occurred at 5-year follow-up. Compared with non-DM group, there were similar risks of MACE (6.02% vs. 6.27%; HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.54-1.71, P = 0.894), cardiovascular death (2.05% vs. 2.61%; HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.29-2.05, P = 0.605) and MI (4.07% vs. 3.72%; HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.54-2.26, P = 0.782) in patients with DM2. Consistent result was observed in multivariable regression.ConclusionsCompared to non-DM patients, patients with CAE and type 2 diabetes were associated with a smaller diameter and shorter length of dilated vessels, suggesting the important effect of DM2 on the pathophysiological process of CAE. Similar risks of MACE were found during 5-year follow up among diabetic and non-DM patients.

Project description:Background and Objective: This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram for the occurrence of in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. Methods: A total of 1,360 ACS patients admitted between November 2014 and October 2019 from Zhongda Hospital and Yancheng Third People's Hospital were included. Patients admitted in Zhongda Hospital before 2018 were split into the training cohort (n = 793). Those admitted after 2018 in Zhongda Hospital and patients from Yancheng Third People's Hospital were split into the validation cohort (n = 567). Twenty eight clinical features routinely assessed including baseline characteristics, past medical history and auxiliary examinations were used to inform the models to predict in-hospital MACCE (all-cause mortality, reinfarction, stroke, and heart failure) in ACS patients. The best-performing model was tested in the validation cohort. The accuracy and clinical applicability were tested by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analyses (DCA). Results: The in-hospital MACCE occurred in 93 (6.83%) patients. The final prediction model consists of four variables: age, Killip grading, fasting blood-glucose (FBG) and whether percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was performed at early stage. A nomogram was used to present the final result. Individualized nomogram exhibited comparable discrimination to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score [AUC: 0.807 (95% CI 0.736-0.878) vs. 0.761 (95% CI 0.69-0.878)], P = 0.10) and a better discrimination than the Evaluation of the Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events (EMMACE) score [AUC: 0.807 (95% CI 0.736-0.878) vs. 0.723(95% CI 0.648-0.798), P = 0.01] in predicting the risk of in-hospital MACCE in ACS patients. A good prediction performance was maintained in the validation cohort (AUC =0.813, 95% CI 0.738-0.889). The prediction model also exhibited decent calibration (P = 0.972) and clinical usefulness. Conclusion: The nomogram may be a simple and effective tool in predicting the occurrence of in-hospital MACCE in ACS patients. Further longitudinal studies are warranted to validate its value in guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing the treatment of high-risk patients.

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Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Coronary Artery Ectasia.

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