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Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Coronary Artery Ectasia.

ABSTRACT: Coronary artery ectasia (CAE) is a rare finding and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. However, prognostic factors are not well studied and no prognostication tool is available. In a derivation set comprising 729 consecutive CAE patients between January 2009 and June 2014, a nomogram was developed using Cox regression. Total of 399 patients from July 2014 to December 2015 formed the validation set. The primary outcome was 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a component of cardiovascular death and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Besides the clinical factors, we used quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) and defined QCA classification of four types, according to max diameter (< or ≥5 mm) and max length ratio (ratio of lesion length to vessel length, < or ≥1/3) of the dilated lesion. A total of 27 cardiovascular deaths and 41 nonfatal myocardial infarctions occurred at 5-year follow-up. The nomogram effectively predicted 5-year MACE risk using predictors including age, prior PCI, high sensitivity C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and QCA classification (area under curve [AUC] 0.75, 95% CI 0.68-0.82 in the derivation set; AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.56-0.86 in the validation set). Patients were classified as high-risk if prognostic scores were ≥155 and the Kaplan-Meier curves were well separated (log-rank p < 0.001 in both sets). Calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated similarity between predicted and actual 5-year MACE survival (p = 0.90 in the derivation and p = 0.47 in the validation set). This study developed and validated a simple-to-use method for assessing 5-year MACE risk in patients with CAE.

SUBMITTER: Cai Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8708195 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundCoronary artery ectasia (CAE) is a rare finding in coronary angiography and associated with poor clinical outcomes. Unlike atherosclerosis, diabetes mellitus (DM) is not commonly associated with CAE. This study aims to investigate the effect of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) on coronary artery ectasia, especially the differences in angiographic characteristics and clinical outcomes.MethodsPatients with angiographically confirmed CAE from 2009 to 2015 were included. Quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) was performed to measure the diameter and length of the dilated lesion. The primary endpoint was the maximum diameter and maximum length of the dilated lesion at baseline coronary angiography. The secondary endpoint was 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), which was a component of cardiovascular death and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). Propensity score weighting (PSW) and propensity score matching (PSM) were used to balance covariates. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression were performed to assess the clinical outcomes.ResultsA total of 1128 patients were included and 258 were combined with DM2. In the DM2 group, the maximum diameter of dilated lesion was significantly lower (5.26 mm vs. 5.47 mm, P = 0.004) and the maximum length of the dilated lesion was significantly shorter (25.20 mm vs. 31.34 mm, P = 0.002). This reduction in dilated lesion diameter (5.26 mm vs. 5.41 mm, P = 0.050 in PSW; 5.26 mm vs. 5.46 mm, P = 0.007 in PSM, respectively) and length (25.17 mm vs. 30.17 mm, P = 0.010 in PSW; 25.20 mm vs. 30.81 mm, P = 0.012 in PSM, respectively) was consistently observed in the propensity score analysis. A total of 27 cardiovascular deaths and 41 myocardial infarctions occurred at 5-year follow-up. Compared with non-DM group, there were similar risks of MACE (6.02% vs. 6.27%; HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.54-1.71, P = 0.894), cardiovascular death (2.05% vs. 2.61%; HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.29-2.05, P = 0.605) and MI (4.07% vs. 3.72%; HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.54-2.26, P = 0.782) in patients with DM2. Consistent result was observed in multivariable regression.ConclusionsCompared to non-DM patients, patients with CAE and type 2 diabetes were associated with a smaller diameter and shorter length of dilated vessels, suggesting the important effect of DM2 on the pathophysiological process of CAE. Similar risks of MACE were found during 5-year follow up among diabetic and non-DM patients.

Project description:Background and Objective: This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram for the occurrence of in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. Methods: A total of 1,360 ACS patients admitted between November 2014 and October 2019 from Zhongda Hospital and Yancheng Third People's Hospital were included. Patients admitted in Zhongda Hospital before 2018 were split into the training cohort (n = 793). Those admitted after 2018 in Zhongda Hospital and patients from Yancheng Third People's Hospital were split into the validation cohort (n = 567). Twenty eight clinical features routinely assessed including baseline characteristics, past medical history and auxiliary examinations were used to inform the models to predict in-hospital MACCE (all-cause mortality, reinfarction, stroke, and heart failure) in ACS patients. The best-performing model was tested in the validation cohort. The accuracy and clinical applicability were tested by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analyses (DCA). Results: The in-hospital MACCE occurred in 93 (6.83%) patients. The final prediction model consists of four variables: age, Killip grading, fasting blood-glucose (FBG) and whether percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was performed at early stage. A nomogram was used to present the final result. Individualized nomogram exhibited comparable discrimination to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score [AUC: 0.807 (95% CI 0.736-0.878) vs. 0.761 (95% CI 0.69-0.878)], P = 0.10) and a better discrimination than the Evaluation of the Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events (EMMACE) score [AUC: 0.807 (95% CI 0.736-0.878) vs. 0.723(95% CI 0.648-0.798), P = 0.01] in predicting the risk of in-hospital MACCE in ACS patients. A good prediction performance was maintained in the validation cohort (AUC =0.813, 95% CI 0.738-0.889). The prediction model also exhibited decent calibration (P = 0.972) and clinical usefulness. Conclusion: The nomogram may be a simple and effective tool in predicting the occurrence of in-hospital MACCE in ACS patients. Further longitudinal studies are warranted to validate its value in guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing the treatment of high-risk patients.

Project description:Background & aimsHepatic steatosis has been associated with increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) but it is not clear whether steatosis is independently associated with risk of MACE. We investigated whether steatosis is associated with risk of MACE independently of the presence and extent of baseline coronary artery disease, assessed by comprehensive contrast-enhanced computed tomography angiography (CTA).MethodsWe conducted a nested cohort study of 3756 subjects (mean age, 60.6 years; 48.4% men) who underwent coronary CTA at 193 sites in North America, from July 2010 through September 2013, as part of the PROMISE study, which included noninvasive cardiovascular analyses of symptomatic outpatients without coronary artery disease. Independent core laboratory readers measured hepatic and splenic attenuation, using non-contrast computed tomography images to identify steatosis, and evaluated coronary plaques and stenosis in coronary CTA images. We collected data on participants' cardiovascular risk factors, presence of metabolic syndrome, and body mass index. The primary endpoint was an adjudicated composite of MACE (death, myocardial infarction, or unstable angina) during a median follow-up time of 25 months.ResultsAmong the 959 subjects who had steatosis (25.5% of the cohort), 42 had MACE (4.4%), whereas among the 2797 subjects without steatosis, 73 had MACE (2.6%) (hazard ratio [HR] for MACE in subjects with steatosis, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.16-2.48; P = .006 for MACE in subjects with vs without steatosis). This association remained after adjustment for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores, significant stenosis, and metabolic syndrome (adjusted HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.16-2.54; P = .007) or obesity (adjusted HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.19-2.59; P = .005). Steatosis remained independently associated with MACE after adjustment for all CTA measures of plaques and stenosis.ConclusionsHepatic steatosis is associated with MACE independently of other cardiovascular risk factors or extent of coronary artery disease. Strategies to reduce steatosis might reduce risk of MACE. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01174550.

Project description:BackgroundPatients with non-ST-segment coronary artery syndrome (NSTE-ACS) have significant heterogeneity in their coronary arteries. A better assessment of significant coronary artery stenosis (SCAS) in low-to-intermediate risk NSTE-ACS patients would help identify who might benefit from invasive coronary angiography (ICA). Our study aimed to develop a multivariable-based model for pretesting SCAS in suspected NSTE-ACS with low-to-intermediate risk.MethodsThis prediction nomogram was constructed retrospectively in 469 suspected NSTE-ACS patients with low-to-intermediate risk. Patients were divided into a development group (n = 331, patients admitted to hospital before 1 May 2021) and a temporal validation group (n = 138, patients admitted to hospital since 1 May 2021). The outcome was existing SCAS, including left main artery stenosis ≥50% or any subepicardial coronary artery stenosis ≥70%, all confirmed by invasive coronary angiography. Pretest predictors were selected using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and stepwise logistic regression.ResultsDerivation analyses from the development group (n = 331, admitted before 1 May 2021) generated the 7 strongest predictors out of 25 candidate variables comprising smoker, diabetes, heart rate, cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and left atrial diameter. This nomogram model showed excellent discrimination ability with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 in the development set and 0.79 in the validation dataset. Good calibration was generally displayed, although it slightly overestimated patients' SCAS risk in the validation group. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical benefit of this model, indicating its value in clinical practice. Furthermore, an optimal cut-off of prediction probability was assigned as 0.61 according to the Youden index.ConclusionA prediction nomogram consisting of seven readily available clinical parameters was established to pretest the probability of SCAS in suspected NSTE-ACS patients with low-to-intermediate risk, which may serve as a cost-effective risk stratification tool and thus assist in initial decision making.

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Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Coronary Artery Ectasia.

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