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A Dynamic Nomogram for 3-Month Prognosis for Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients After Endovascular Therapy: A Pooled Analysis in Southern China.

ABSTRACT: Cerebral edema (CDE) is a common complication in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and can reduce the benefit of endovascular therapy (EVT). To determine whether certain risk factors are associated with a poor prognosis mediated by CDE after EVT. The 759 patients with anterior circulation stroke treated by EVT at three comprehensive stroke centers in China from January 2014 to October 2020 were analyzed. Patients underwent follow-up for 3 months after inclusion. The primary endpoint was a measure of a poor prognosis (modified Rankin Scale score ≥ 3) at 3 months assessed in all patients receiving EVT. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariate logistic regression were used to select variables for the prognostic nomogram. Based on these variables, the nomogram was established and validated. In addition, structural equation modeling was used to explore the pathways linking CDE and a poor prognosis. Seven predictors were identified, namely, diabetes, age, baseline Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score, modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction score, early angiogenic CDE, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and collateral circulation. The nomogram consisting of these variables showed the best performance, with a large area under the curve in both the internal validation set (0.850; sensitivity, 0.737; specificity, 0.887) and external validation set (0.875; sensitivity, 0.752; specificity, 0.878). In addition, CDE (total path coefficient = 0.24, P < 0.001) served as a significant moderator. A nomogram for predicting a poor prognosis after EVT in AIS patients was established and validated with CDE as a moderator.

SUBMITTER: Huang ZX

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8710662 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectivesCerebral blood flow (CBF) measurements after endovascular therapy (EVT) for acute ischemic stroke are important to distinguish early secondary injury related to persisting ischemia from that related to reperfusion when considering clinical response and infarct growth.MethodsWe compare reperfusion quantified by the modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction Score (mTICI) with perfusion measured by MRI dynamic contrast-enhanced perfusion within 5 h of EVT anterior circulation stroke. MR perfusion (rCBF, rCBV, rTmax, rT0) and mTICI scores were included in a predictive model for change in NIHSS at 24 h and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) lesion growth (acute to 24 h MRI) using a machine learning RRELIEFF feature selection coupled with a support vector regression.ResultsFor all perfusion parameters, mean values within the acute infarct for the TICI-2b group (considered clinically good reperfusion) were not significantly different from those in the mTICI <2b (clinically poor reperfusion). However, there was a statistically significant difference in perfusion values within the acute infarct region of interest between the mTICI-3 group versus both mTICI-2b and <2b (p = 0.02). The features that made up the best predictive model for change in NIHSS and absolute DWI lesion volume change was rT0 within acute infarct ROI and admission CTA collaterals respectively. No other variables, including mTICI scores, were selected for these best models. The correlation coefficients (Root mean squared error) for the cross-validation were 0.47 (13.7) and 0.51 (5.7) for change in NIHSS and absolute DWI lesion volume change.ConclusionMR perfusion following EVT provides accurate physiological approach to understanding the relationship of CBF, clinical outcome, and DWI growth.Advances in knowledgeMR perfusion CBF acquired is a robust, objective reperfusion measurement providing following recanalization of the target occlusion which is critical to distinguish potential therapeutic harm from the failed technical success of EVT as well as improve the responsiveness of clinical trial outcomes to disease modification.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Early prediction of unfavorable outcome after ischemic stroke is of great significance to the clinical and therapeutic management. A nomogram is a better visual tool than earlier models and prognostic scores to predict clinical outcomes, which incorporates different factors to develop a graphic continuous scoring system and calculates accurately the risk probability of poor outcome entirely based on individual characteristics. However, to date, no nomogram models have been found to predict the probability of 6-month poor outcome after ischemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS:Based on the retrospective stroke registry, a single-center study which included 499 patients from May, 2013 to May, 2018 was conducted in Nanjing First Hospital (China) for ischemic stroke within 12?h of symptoms onset. The main outcome measure was 6-month unfavorable outcome (mRS?>?2). To generate the nomogram, NIHSS score on admission, Age, previous Diabetes mellitus and crEatinine (NADE) were integrated into the model. We assessed the discriminative performance by using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration of risk prediction model by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS:A visual NADE nomogram was constructed that NIHSS score on admission (OR: 1.190, 95%CI: 1.125-1.258), age (OR: 1.068, 95%CI: 1.045-1.090), previous diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.995, 95%CI: 1.236-3.221) and creatinine (OR: 1.010, 95%CI: 1.002-1.018) were found to be significant predictors of 6-month unfavorable outcome after acute ischemic stroke in Chinese patients. The AUC-ROC of nomogram was 0.791. Calibration was good (p?=?0.4982 for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test). CONCLUSION:The NADE is the first nomogram developed and validated in Chinese ischemic stroke patients to provide an individual, visual and precise prediction of the risk probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome.

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A Dynamic Nomogram for 3-Month Prognosis for Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients After Endovascular Therapy: A Pooled Analysis in Southern China.

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