Dataset Information

Incidence and Predictors of Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Heart failure (HF) is a frequent cause of hospitalization and death in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Identifying AF patients at risk of HF hospitalization could help select individuals for intensive follow-up and treatment.

Methods

We pooled data from 3 randomized trials (ACTIVE-A, RE-LY, AVERROES) of AF patients, for derivation and internal validation of a risk score for first HF hospitalization. Secondary endpoints were cardiovascular death and a composite of HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death.

Results

In 23,503 patients, the mean age was 71.3 years, and 62% were male. Over a mean follow-up of 2.0 years, 875 patients (3.7%) experienced their first HF hospitalization, and 1037 patients (4.4%) died from cardiovascular causes. Incidence rates per 100 patient-years were 1.85 for HF hospitalizations, 2.15 for cardiovascular death, and 3.71 for the composite. Independent predictors for HF hospitalizations included the following: increased age, weight, heart rate and serum creatinine level, lower height and systolic blood pressure, diabetes, vascular disease, valvular disease, heart rhythm, left ventricular hypertrophy, and intraventricular conduction delay. The C-statistic (95% confidence intervals by bootstrap simulations) was 0.717 (0.705-0.732). At 2 years of follow-up, the incidence rate of the primary outcome increased across risk-score quintiles: 0.49, 0.87, 1.29, 2.44, and 4.51 per 100 patient-years, respectively. Patients in the highest quintile had an absolute risk of 6.8% for the primary endpoint at 2 years.

Conclusions

In a large AF population, new-onset HF was common. A combination of characteristics can identify high-risk patients for whom strategies to prevent HF should be considered.

SUBMITTER: Krisai P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8712577 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:AimsThe objective of the present study is to assess the bidirectional association between heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) using real-world data.Methods and resultsFrom an electronic health recording with a population of 3 799 885 adult subjects, those with prevalent or incident HF were selected and followed throughout a study period of 5 years. Prevalence and incidence of AF, and their impact in the risk for acute HF hospitalization, worsening renal function, ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, and all-cause mortality were identified. We analysed all incident and prevalent patients with HF and AF, 128 086 patients (S1), and subsequently analysed a subset of patients with incident HF and AF, 57 354 patients (S2). We analysed all incident and prevalent patients with HF and AF, 128 086 patients (S1), and subsequently a subset of patients with incident HF and AF, 57 354 patients (S2). The prevalence of AF was 59 906 (46.7%) of the HF patients, while incidence in the S2 was 231/1000 patients/year. In both cohorts, S1 and S2, AF significantly increases the risk of acute heart failure hospitalization [incidence 79.1/1000 and 97.5/1000 patients/year; HR 1.53 (1.48-1.59 95% CI) and HR 1.32 (1.24-1.41 95% CI), respectively], risk of decreased renal function (eGFR reduced by >20%) [66.2/1000 and 94.0/1000 patients/year; HR 1.13 (1.09-1.18 95% CI) and HR 1.22 (1.14-1.31 95% CI), respectively] and all-cause mortality [203/1000 and 294/1000 patients/year; HR 1.62 (1.58-1.65 95% CI) and HR 1.65 (1.59-1.70 95% CI), respectively]. The number of episodes of hospitalization for acute heart failure was also significantly higher in the AF patients (27 623 vs. 10 036, P < 0.001). However, the risk for ischaemic stroke was reduced in the AF subjects [HR 0.66 (0.63-0.74 95% CI)], probably due to the anticoagulant treatment.ConclusionsAF is associated with an increment in the risk of episodes of acute heart failure as well as decline of renal function and increment of all-cause mortality.