Dataset Information

A clinical score to predict mortality in patients after acute heart failure from Japanese registry.

ABSTRACT:

Aims

Clinical scores that consider physical and social factors to predict long-term observations in patients after acute heart failure are limited. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for patients with acute heart failure at the time of discharge.

Methods and results

This study was retrospective analysis of the Kitakawachi Clinical Background and Outcome of Heart Failure Registry database. The registry is a prospective, multicentre cohort of patients with acute heart failure between April 2015 and August 2017. The primary outcome to be predicted was the incidence of all-cause mortality during the 3 years of follow-up period. The development cohort derived from April 2015 to July 2016 was used to build the prediction model, and the test cohort from August 2016 to August 2017 was used to evaluate the prediction model. The following potential predictors were selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method: age, sex, body mass index, activities of daily living at discharge, social background, comorbidities, biomarkers, and echocardiographic findings; a risk scoring system was developed using a logistic model to predict the outcome using a simple integer based on each variable's β coefficient. Out of 1253 patients registered, 1117 were included in the analysis and divided into the development (n = 679) and test (n = 438) cohorts. The outcomes were 246 (36.2%) in the development cohort and 143 (32.6%) in the test cohort. Eleven variables including physical and social factors were set into the logistic regression model, and the risk scoring system was created. The patients were divided into three groups: low risk (score 0-5), moderate risk (score 6-11), and high risk (score ≥12). The observed and predicted mortality rates were described by the Kaplan-Meier curve divided by risk group and independently increased (P < 0.001). In the test cohort, the C statistic of the prediction model was 0.778 (95% confidence interval: 0.732-0.824), and the mean predicted probabilities in the groups were low, 6.9% (95% confidence interval: 3.8-10%); moderate, 30.1% (95% confidence interval: 25.4%-34.8%); and high, 79.2% (95% confidence interval: 72.6%-85.8%). The predicted probability was well calibrated to the observed outcomes in both cohorts.

Conclusions

The Kitakawachi Clinical Background and Outcome of Heart Failure score was helpful in predicting adverse events in patients with acute heart failure over a long-term period. We should evaluate the physical and social functions of such patients before discharge to prevent adverse outcomes.

SUBMITTER: Takabayashi K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8712813 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:OBJECTIVES:We sought to describe the demographics, clinical characteristics, management and outcomes of patients in Oman with acute heart failure (AHF) as part of the Gulf aCute heArt failuRe rEgistry (CARE) project. METHODS:Data were analyzed from 988 consecutive patients admitted with AHF to 12 hospitals in Oman between 14 February and 14 November 2012. RESULTS:The mean age of our patients was 63±12 years. Over half (57%) were male and 95% were Omani citizens. Fifty-seven percent of patients presented with acute decompensated chronic heart failure (ADCHF) while 43% had new-onset AHF. The primary comorbid conditions were hypertension (72%), coronary artery disease (55%), and diabetes mellitus (53%). Ischemic heart disease (IHD), hypertensive heart disease, and idiopathic cardiomyopathy were the most common etiologies of AHF in Oman. The median left ventricular ejection fraction of the cohort was 36% (27-45%) with 56% of the patients having heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (< 40%). Atrial fibrillation was seen in 15% of patients. Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and non-compliance with medications were the most common precipitating factors. At discharge, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and beta-blockers were prescribed adequately, but aldosterone antagonists were under prescribed. Within 12-months follow-up, one in two patients were rehospitalized for AHF. In-hospital mortality was 7.1%, which doubled to 15.7% at three months and reached 26.4% at one-year post discharge. CONCLUSIONS:Oman CARE was the first prospective multicenter registry of AHF in Oman and showed that heart failure (HF) patients present at a younger age with recurrent ADCHF and HF with reduced ejection fraction. IHD was the most common etiology of HF with a low prevalence of AHF, but a high prevalence of acute coronary syndrome and non-compliance with medications precipitating HF. A quarter of patients died at one-year follow-up even though at discharge medical therapy was nearly optimal. Our study indicates an urgent need for prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment of AHF in Oman.

Project description:BackgroundThe health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is an important treatment goal that could serve as low-cost prognostication tool in resource poor settings. We sought to validate the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) and evaluate its use as a predictor of 3 months all-cause mortality among heart failure participants in rural Uganda.MethodsThe Mbarara Heart Failure Registry Cohort study observes heart failure patients during hospital stay and in the community in rural Uganda. Participants completed health failure evaluations and HRQoL questionnaires at enrollment, 1 and 3 months of follow-up. We used Cronbach's alpha coefficients to define internal consistency, intraclass correlation coefficients as a reliability coefficient, and Cox proportional hazard models to predict the risk of 3 months all-cause mortality.ResultsAmong the 195 participants who completed HRQoL questionnaires, the mean age was 52 (standard deviation (SD) 21.4) years, 68% were women and 29% reported history of hypertension. The KCCQ had excellent internal consistency (87% Cronbach alpha) but poor reliability. Independent predictors of all-cause mortality within 3 months included: worse overall KCCQ score (Adjusted Hazard ratio (AHR) 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1, 8.1), highest asset ownership (AHR 3.6, 95% CI 1.2, 10.8), alcoholic drinks per sitting (AHR per 1 drink 1.4, 95% CI 1.0, 1.9), New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class IV heart failure (AHR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3, 5.4), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 30 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m2 (AHR 3.4, 95% CI 1.1, 10.8), and eGFR less than 15 ml/min/1.73 m2 (AHR 2.7, 95% CI 1.0, 7.1), each 1 pg/mL increase in Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) (AHR, 1.0, 95% CI 1.0, 1.0), and each 1 ng/mL increase in Creatine-Kinase MB isomer (CKMB) (AHR 1.0, 95% CI 1.0, 1.1).ConclusionThe KCCQ showed excellent internal consistency. Worse overall KCCQ score, highest asset ownership, increasing alcoholic drink per sitting, NYHA class IV, decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate, BNP, and CKMB predicted all-cause mortality at 3 months. The KCCQ could be an additional low-cost tool to aid in the prognostication of acute heart failure patients.

Project description:AimsLittle is known about the characteristics and outcomes of patients who undergo coronary angiography during heart failure (HF) hospitalization, as well as those with coronary stenosis, and those who underwent coronary revascularization.Methods and resultsWe analysed 2163 patients who were hospitalized for HF without acute coronary syndrome or prior HF hospitalization. We compared patient characteristics and 1 year clinical outcomes according to (i) patients with versus without coronary angiography, (ii) patients with versus without coronary stenosis, and (iii) patients with versus without coronary revascularization. The primary outcome measure was the composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. Coronary angiography was performed in 37.0% of patients. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, factors independently associated with coronary angiography were age < 80 years [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.41-2.20, P < 0.001], men (adjusted OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.03-1.59, P = 0.02), diabetes (adjusted OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.02-1.60, P = 0.04), no atrial fibrillation or flutter (adjusted OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.17-1.82, P < 0.001), no prior device implantation (adjusted OR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.13-2.91, P = 0.01), current smoking (adjusted OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.05-1.87, P = 0.02), no cognitive dysfunction (adjusted OR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.34-2.69, P < 0.001), ambulatory status (adjusted OR = 2.89, 95% CI = 2.03-4.10, P < 0.001), HF with reduced ejection fraction (adjusted OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.24-1.93, P < 0.001), estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥ 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted OR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.45-2.58, P < 0.001), no anaemia (adjusted OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.02-1.59, P = 0.04), and no prescription of β-blockers prior to admission (adjusted OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.03-1.68, P = 0.03). Patients who underwent coronary angiography had a lower risk of the primary outcome [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.58-0.85, P < 0.001]. Among the patients who underwent coronary angiography, those with coronary stenosis (38.9%) did not have lower risk of the primary outcome measure than those without coronary stenosis (adjusted HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.65-1.32, P = 0.68). Among the patients with coronary stenosis, those with coronary revascularization (54.3%) did not have higher risk of the primary outcome measure than those without coronary revascularization (adjusted HR = 1.36, 95% CI = 0.84-2.21, P = 0.22).ConclusionsIn patients with acute HF, patients who underwent coronary angiography had a lower risk of clinical outcomes and were significantly different from those who did not undergo coronary angiography.