Effectiveness of International Travel Controls for Delaying Local Outbreaks of COVID-19.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yang B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8714230 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveFollowing the outbreak of novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), and the disease named COVID-19, in Wuhan, China in late 2019, countries have implemented different interventions such as travel bans to slow the spread of this novel virus. This brief report evaluates the effect of travel bans imposed to prevent COVID-19 importation in the Australian context.MethodsWe developed a stochastic meta-population model to capture the global dynamics and spread of COVID-19. By adjusting our model to capture the travel bans imposed globally and in Australia, the predicted COVID-19 cases imported to Australia were evaluated in comparison to observed imported cases.ResultsOur modelling results closely aligned with observed cases in Australia and elsewhere. We observed a 79% reduction in COVID-19 importation and a delay of the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia by approximately one month. Further projection of COVID-19 to May 2020 showed spread patterns depending on the basic reproduction number.ConclusionImposing the travel ban was effective in delaying widespread transmission of COVID-19. However, strengthening of the domestic control measures is needed to prevent Australia from becoming another epicentre. Implications for public health: This report has shown the importance of border closure to pandemic control.
| S-EPMC7405030 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We evaluated if interventions aimed at air travellers can delay local severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) community transmission in a previously unaffected country. We simulated infected air travellers arriving into countries with no sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission or other introduction routes from affected regions. We assessed the effectiveness of syndromic screening at departure and/or arrival and traveller sensitisation to the COVID-2019-like symptoms with the aim to trigger rapid self-isolation and reporting on symptom onset to enable contact tracing. We assumed that syndromic screening would reduce the number of infected arrivals and that traveller sensitisation reduces the average number of secondary cases. We use stochastic simulations to account for uncertainty in both arrival and secondary infections rates, and present sensitivity analyses on arrival rates of infected travellers and the effectiveness of traveller sensitisation. We report the median expected delay achievable in each scenario and an inner 50% interval. Under baseline assumptions, introducing exit and entry screening in combination with traveller sensitisation can delay a local SARS-CoV-2 outbreak by 8 days (50% interval: 3-14 days) when the rate of importation is 1 infected traveller per week at time of introduction. The additional benefit of entry screening is small if exit screening is effective: the combination of only exit screening and traveller sensitisation can delay an outbreak by 7 days (50% interval: 2-13 days). In the absence of screening, with less effective sensitisation, or a higher rate of importation, these delays shrink rapidly to <4 days. Syndromic screening and traveller sensitisation in combination may have marginally delayed SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in unaffected countries.
| S-EPMC7239177 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:International students frequently return to their country of origin to visit friends and relatives (VFR), and are at increased risk of travel-associated infections. Little is known of their travel health seeking behaviours. China is the biggest source of international students studying in Australia and the unprecedented epidemic of COVID-19 in China makes this an important area of research. METHODS:Focus groups of Chinese international students were conducted to explore travel health-related knowledge, attitudes and practices. Eligible participants were studying in Sydney, and had travelled to China and Hong Kong to visit friends and relatives in the preceding 18 months. A variety of topics were explored, using a focus group guide. Thematic analysis was undertaken on the transcripts using nVivo software. The list of codes and themes were not pre-determined but developed through content analysis. RESULTS:Two focus groups were held with a total of 28 participants. Risk perception about VFR travel was generally low among Chinese international students. Pre-travel healthcare was not sought. Students strongly relied on the Internet, social media, parents and friends in China for travel health advice. CONCLUSION:This research provides insights into Chinese international students as VFR travellers. It confirms students could be a risk population for importations of infections such as COVID-19 because of low risk perception and lack of seeking travel health advice. This can inform health promotion strategies for students.
| S-EPMC7128943 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In early-to-mid March 2020, 20 of 46 (43%) COVID-19 cases at a tertiary care hospital in San Francisco, California were travel related. Cases were significantly associated with travel to either Europe (odds ratio, 6.1) or New York (odds ratio, 32.9). Viral genomes recovered from 9 of 12 (75%) cases co-clustered with lineages circulating in Europe.
| S-EPMC7314204 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel to a COVID-19-free country [New Zealand (NZ)]. A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. We first considered historical data for Australia before it eliminated COVID-19 (equivalent to an outbreak generating 74 new cases/day) and one flight per day to NZ with no interventions in place. This gave a median time to an outbreak of 0.2 years (95% range of simulation results: 3 days to 1.1 years) or a mean of 110 flights per outbreak. However, the combined use of a pre-flight PCR test of saliva, three subsequent PCR tests (on days 1, 3 and 12 in NZ), and various other interventions (mask use and contact tracing) reduced this risk to one outbreak after a median of 1.5 years (20 days to 8.1 years). A pre-flight test plus 14 days quarantine was an even more effective strategy (4.9 years; 2,594 flights). For a much lower prevalence (representing only two new community cases per week in the whole of Australia), the annual risk of an outbreak with no interventions was 1.2% and had a median time to an outbreak of 56 years. In contrast the risks associated with travellers from Japan and the United States was very much higher and would need quarantine or other restrictions. Collectively, these results suggest that multi-layered interventions can markedly reduce the risk of importing the pandemic virus via air travel into a COVID-19-free nation. For some low-risk source countries, there is the potential to replace 14-day quarantine with alternative interventions. However, all approaches require public and policy deliberation about acceptable risks, and continuous careful management and evaluation.
| S-EPMC8144219 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was recently declared a pandemic by the WHO. This outbreak threatens not only physical health but also has significant repercussions on mental health. In recent world history, major infectious outbreaks were associated with severe mental health sequelae, including suicide. In this study, we systematically review the literature on suicidal outcomes during major international respiratory outbreaks, including COVID-19. We reviewed descriptive and analytic articles addressing suicide during major international respiratory outbreaks. We searched PubMed, Medline, Embase, Scopus, and PsycInfo databases and then utilized an independent method for study selection by a pair of reviewers. Two reviewers completed data abstraction and conducted a narrative summary of the findings. Our search generated 2,153 articles. Nine studies (three descriptive, five analytical, and one with mixed methodology) were eligible. The included studies were heterogeneous, divergent in methods, and with a low degree of evidence. Deducing an association between pandemics, suicide, and suicide-related outcomes remains thus poorly supported. Future research with better methodological characteristics, the use of longitudinal studies, and a focus on suicide as the primary outcome would allow for an in-depth understanding and formulation of the scope of this problem.
| S-EPMC7764387 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNovel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread across the world at an unprecedented pace, reaching over 200 countries and territories in less than three months. In response, many governments denied entry to travellers arriving from various countries affected by the virus. While several industries continue to experience economic losses due to the imposed interventions, it is unclear whether the different travel restrictions were successful in reducing COVID-19 importations.MethodsHere we develop a comprehensive probabilistic framework to model daily COVID-19 importations, considering different travel bans. We quantify the temporal effects of the restrictions and elucidate the relationship between incidence rates in other countries, travel flows and the expected number of importations into the country under investigation.ResultsAs a cases study, we evaluate the travel bans enforced by the Australian government. We find that international travel bans in Australia lowered COVID-19 importations by 87.68% (83.39 - 91.35) between January and June 2020. The presented framework can further be used to gain insights into how many importations to expect should borders re-open.ConclusionsWhile travel bans lowered the number of COVID-19 importations overall, the effectiveness of bans on individual countries varies widely and directly depends on the change in behaviour in returning residents and citizens. Authorities may consider the presented information when planning a phased re-opening of international borders.
| S-EPMC8378112 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study analyses how Covid-19 shapes individuals' international tourism intentions in context of bounded rationality. It provides a novel analysis of risk which is disaggregated into tolerance/aversion of and competence to manage risks across three different aspects: general, domain (tourism) and situational (Covid-19). The impacts of risk are also differentiated from uncertainty and ambiguity. The empirical study is based on large samples (total = 8962) collected from the world's top five tourism source markets: China, USA, Germany, UK and France. Various risk factors show significant predictive powers of individual's intentions to defer international tourism plans amid Covid-19. Uncertainty and ambiguity intolerance is shown to lead to intentions to take holidays relatively sooner rather than delaying the holiday plans.
| S-EPMC8734289 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 threatens the world. Social distancing is a significant factor in determining the spread of this disease, and social distancing is strongly affected by the local travel behaviour of people in large cities. In this study, we analysed the changes in the local travel behaviour of various population groups in Hong Kong, between 1 January and 31 March 2020, by using second-by-second smartcard data obtained from the Mass Transit Railway Corporation (MTRC) system. Due to the pandemic, local travel volume decreased by 43%, 49% and 59% during weekdays, Saturdays and Sundays, respectively. The local travel volumes of adults, children, students and senior citizens decreased by 42%, 86%, 73% and 48%, respectively. The local travel behaviour changes for adults and seniors between non-pandemic and pandemic times were greater than those between weekdays and weekends. The opposite was true for children and students. During the pandemic, the daily commute flow decreased by 42%. Local trips to shopping areas, amusement areas and borders decreased by 42%, 81% and 99%, respectively. The effective reproduction number (R t ) of COVID-19 had the strongest association with daily population use of the MTR 7-8 days earlier.
| S-EPMC7877214 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background/objectiveInternational travel measures to contain the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic represent a relatively intrusive form of non-pharmaceutical intervention. To inform decision-making on the (re)implementation, adaptation, relaxation or suspension of such measures, it is essential to not only assess their effectiveness but also their unintended effects.MethodsThis scoping review maps existing empirical studies on the unintended consequences, both predicted and unforeseen, and beneficial or harmful, of international travel measures. We searched multiple health, non-health and COVID-19-specific databases. The evidence was charted in a map in relation to the study design, intervention and outcome categories identified and discussed narratively.ResultsTwenty-three studies met our inclusion criteria-nine quasi-experimental, two observational, two mathematical modelling, six qualitative and four mixed-methods studies. Studies addressed different population groups across various countries worldwide. Seven studies provided information on unintended consequences of the closure of national borders, six looked at international travel restrictions and three investigated mandatory quarantine of international travellers. No studies looked at entry and/or exit screening at national borders exclusively, however six studies considered this intervention in combination with other international travel measures. In total, 11 studies assessed various combinations of the aforementioned interventions. The outcomes were mostly referred to by the authors as harmful. Fifteen studies identified a variety of economic consequences, six reported on aspects related to quality of life, well-being, and mental health and five on social consequences. One study each provided information on equity, equality, and the fair distribution of benefits and burdens, environmental consequences and health system consequences.ConclusionThis scoping review represents the first step towards a systematic assessment of the unintended benefits and harms of international travel measures during COVID-19. The key research gaps identified might be filled with targeted primary research, as well as the additional consideration of gray literature and non-empirical studies.
| S-EPMC8436381 | biostudies-literature