Smoothing splines of apex predator movement: Functional modeling strategies for exploring animal behavior and social interactions.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Whetten AB
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8717279 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Smoothing splines have been used pervasively in nonparametric regressions. However, the computational burden of smoothing splines is significant when the sample size n is large. When the number of predictors d ≥ 2 , the computational cost for smoothing splines is at the order of O(n 3) using the standard approach. Many methods have been developed to approximate smoothing spline estimators by using q basis functions instead of n ones, resulting in a computational cost of the order O(nq 2). These methods are called the basis selection methods. Despite algorithmic benefits, most of the basis selection methods require the assumption that the sample is uniformly-distributed on a hyper-cube. These methods may have deteriorating performance when such an assumption is not met. To overcome the obstacle, we develop an efficient algorithm that is adaptive to the unknown probability density function of the predictors. Theoretically, we show the proposed estimator has the same convergence rate as the full-basis estimator when q is roughly at the order of O[n 2d/{(pr+1)(d +2)}] , where p ∈[1, 2] and r ≈ 4 are some constants depend on the type of the spline. Numerical studies on various synthetic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed estimator in comparison with mainstream competitors.
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Project description:BackgroundNext-generation sequencing has been used by investigators to address a diverse range of biological problems through, for example, polymorphism and mutation discovery and microRNA profiling. However, compared to conventional sequencing, the error rates for next-generation sequencing are often higher, which impacts the downstream genomic analysis. Recently, Wang et al. (BMC Bioinformatics 13:185, 2012) proposed a shadow regression approach to estimate the error rates for next-generation sequencing data based on the assumption of a linear relationship between the number of reads sequenced and the number of reads containing errors (denoted as shadows). However, this linear read-shadow relationship may not be appropriate for all types of sequence data. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the error rates in a more reliable way without assuming linearity. We proposed an empirical error rate estimation approach that employs cubic and robust smoothing splines to model the relationship between the number of reads sequenced and the number of shadows.ResultsWe performed simulation studies using a frequency-based approach to generate the read and shadow counts directly, which can mimic the real sequence counts data structure. Using simulation, we investigated the performance of the proposed approach and compared it to that of shadow linear regression. The proposed approach provided more accurate error rate estimations than the shadow linear regression approach for all the scenarios tested. We also applied the proposed approach to assess the error rates for the sequence data from the MicroArray Quality Control project, a mutation screening study, the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements project, and bacteriophage PhiX DNA samples.ConclusionsThe proposed empirical error rate estimation approach does not assume a linear relationship between the error-free read and shadow counts and provides more accurate estimations of error rates for next-generation, short-read sequencing data.
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Project description:The selection of smoothing parameter is central to the estimation of penalized splines. The best value of the smoothing parameter is often the one that optimizes a smoothness selection criterion, such as generalized cross-validation error (GCV) and restricted likelihood (REML). To correctly identify the global optimum rather than being trapped in an undesired local optimum, grid search is recommended for optimization. Unfortunately, the grid search method requires a pre-specified search interval that contains the unknown global optimum, yet no guideline is available for providing this interval. As a result, practitioners have to find it by trial and error. To overcome such difficulty, we develop novel algorithms to automatically find this interval. Our automatic search interval has four advantages. (i) It specifies a smoothing parameter range where the associated penalized least squares problem is numerically solvable. (ii) It is criterion-independent so that different criteria, such as GCV and REML, can be explored on the same parameter range. (iii) It is sufficiently wide to contain the global optimum of any criterion, so that for example, the global minimum of GCV and the global maximum of REML can both be identified. (iv) It is computationally cheap compared with the grid search itself, carrying no extra computational burden in practice. Our method is ready to use through our recently developed R package gps ( ≥ version 1.1). It may be embedded in more advanced statistical modeling methods that rely on penalized splines.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11222-022-10178-z.
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Project description:We consider the problem of approximating smoothing spline estimators in a nonparametric regression model. When applied to a sample of size [Formula: see text], the smoothing spline estimator can be expressed as a linear combination of [Formula: see text] basis functions, requiring [Formula: see text] computational time when the number [Formula: see text] of predictors is two or more. Such a sizeable computational cost hinders the broad applicability of smoothing splines. In practice, the full-sample smoothing spline estimator can be approximated by an estimator based on [Formula: see text] randomly selected basis functions, resulting in a computational cost of [Formula: see text]. It is known that these two estimators converge at the same rate when [Formula: see text] is of order [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] depends on the true function and [Formula: see text] depends on the type of spline. Such a [Formula: see text] is called the essential number of basis functions. In this article, we develop a more efficient basis selection method. By selecting basis functions corresponding to approximately equally spaced observations, the proposed method chooses a set of basis functions with great diversity. The asymptotic analysis shows that the proposed smoothing spline estimator can decrease [Formula: see text] to around [Formula: see text] when [Formula: see text]. Applications to synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed method leads to a smaller prediction error than other basis selection methods.
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Project description:Animal movement drives important ecological processes such as migration and the spread of infectious disease. Current approaches to modeling animal tracking data focus on parametric models used to understand environmental effects on movement behavior and to fill in missing tracking data. Machine Learning and Deep learning algorithms are powerful and flexible predictive modeling tools but have rarely been applied to animal movement data. In this study we present a general framework for predicting animal movement that is a combination of two steps: first predicting movement behavioral states and second predicting the animal's velocity. We specify this framework at the individual level as well as for collective movement. We use Random Forests, Neural and Recurrent Neural Networks to compare performance predicting one step ahead as well as long range simulations. We compare results against a custom constructed Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) model. We apply this approach to high resolution ant movement data. We found that the individual level Machine Learning and Deep Learning methods outperformed the SDE model for one step ahead prediction. The SDE model did comparatively better at simulating long range movement behaviour. Of the Machine Learning and Deep Learning models the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) individual level model did best at long range simulations. We also applied the Random Forest and LSTM individual level models to model gull migratory movement to demonstrate the generalizability of this framework. Machine Learning and deep learning models are easier to specify compared to traditional parametric movement models which can have restrictive assumptions. However, machine learning and deep learning models are less interpretable than parametric movement models. The type of model used should be determined by the goal of the study, if the goal is prediction, our study provides evidence that machine learning and deep learning models could be useful tools.
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Project description:Animal movement research relies on biotelemetry, and telemetry-based locations are increasingly augmented with ancillary information. This presents an underutilized opportunity to enhance movement process models. Given tags designed to record specific behaviors, efforts are increasing to update movement models beyond reliance solely upon horizontal movement information to improve inference of space use and activity budgets. We present two state-space models adapted to incorporate ancillary data to inform three discrete movement states: directed, resident, and an activity state. These were developed for two case studies: (1) a "haulout" model for Weddell seals, and (2) an "activity" model for Antarctic fur seals which intersperse periods of diving activity and inactivity. The methodology is easily implementable with any ancillary data that can be expressed as a proportion (or binary) indicator. A comparison of the models augmented with ancillary information and unaugmented models confirmed that many behavioral states appeared mischaracterized in the latter. Important changes in subsequent activity budgets occurred. Haulout accounted for 0.17 of the overall Weddell seal time budget, with the estimated proportion of time spent in a resident state reduced from a posterior median of 0.69 (0.65-0.73; 95% HPDI) to 0.54 (0.50-0.58 HPDI). The drop was more dramatic in the Antarctic fur seal case, from 0.57 (0.52-0.63 HPDI) to 0.22 (0.20-0.25 HPDI), with 0.35 (0.31-0.39 HPDI) of time spent in the inactive (nondiving) state. These findings reinforce previously raised contentions about the drawbacks of behavioral states inferred solely from horizontal movements. Our findings have implications for assessing habitat requirements; estimating energetics and consumption; and management efforts such as mitigating fisheries interactions. Combining multiple sources of information within integrated frameworks should improve inference of relationships between movement decisions and fitness, the interplay between resource and habitat dependencies, and their changes at the population and landscape level.
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Project description:An individual's choices are shaped by its experience, a fundamental property of behavior important to understanding complex processes. Learning and memory are observed across many taxa and can drive behaviors, including foraging behavior. To explore the conditions under which memory provides an advantage, we present a continuous-space, continuous-time model of animal movement that incorporates learning and memory. Using simulation models, we evaluate the benefit memory provides across several types of landscapes with variable-quality resources and compare the memory model within a nested hierarchy of simpler models (behavioral switching and random walk). We find that memory almost always leads to improved foraging success, but that this effect is most marked in landscapes containing sparse, contiguous patches of high-value resources that regenerate relatively fast and are located in an otherwise devoid landscape. In these cases, there is a large payoff for finding a resource patch, due to size, value, or locational difficulty. While memory-informed search is difficult to differentiate from other factors using solely movement data, our results suggest that disproportionate spatial use of higher value areas, higher consumption rates, and consumption variability all point to memory influencing the movement direction of animals in certain ecosystems.
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