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Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of both flora and fauna. Land use change continues to alter the availability and quality of habitat and further intensifies the effects of climate change on wildlife species. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict changes in habitat suitability for an iconic wildlife species, greater one-horned rhinoceros due to the combined effects of climate and land use changes. We compiled an extensive database on current rhinoceros distribution and selected nine ecologically meaningful environmental variables for developing ensemble models of habitat suitability using ten different species distribution modeling algorithms in the BIOMOD2 R package; and we did this under current climatic conditions and then projected them onto two possible climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and two different time frames (2050 and 2070). Out of ten algorithms, random forest performed the best, and five environmental variables-distance from grasslands, mean temperature of driest quarter, distance from wetlands, annual precipitation, and slope, contributed the most in the model. The ensemble model estimated the current suitable habitat of rhinoceros to be 2610 km², about 1.77% of the total area of Nepal. The future habitat suitability under the lowest and highest emission scenarios was estimated to be: (1) 2325 and 1904 km² in 2050; and (2) 2287 and 1686 km² in 2070, respectively. Our results suggest that over one-third of the current rhinoceros habitat would become unsuitable within a period of 50 years, with the predicted declines being influenced to a greater degree by climatic changes than land use changes. We have recommended several measures to moderate these impacts, including relocation of the proposed Nijgad International Airport given that a considerable portion of potential rhinoceros habitat will be lost if the airport is constructed on the currently proposed site.

SUBMITTER: Pant G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8717310 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Climate change has started impacting species, ecosystems, genetic diversity within species, and ecological interactions and is thus a serious threat to conserving biodiversity globally. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, biodiversity may continue to decline, and many species will possibly become extinct. Given that global temperature continues to increase, climate change adaptation has emerged as an overarching framework for conservation planning. We identified both ongoing and probable climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros conservation in Nepal through a combination of literature review, key informant surveys (n = 53), focus group discussions (n = 37) and expert consultation (n = 9), and prioritised the identified adaptation actions through stakeholder consultation (n = 17). The majority of key informants (>80%) reported that climate change has been impacting rhinoceros, and more than 65% of them believe that rhinoceros habitat suitability in Nepal has been shifting westwards. Despite these perceived risks, climate change impacts have not been incorporated well into formal conservation planning for rhinoceros. Out of 20 identified adaptation actions under nine adaptation strategies, identifying and protecting climate refugia, restoring the existing habitats through wetland and grassland management, creating artificial highlands in floodplains to provide rhinoceros with refuge during severe floods, and translocating them to other suitable habitats received higher priority. These adaptation actions may contribute to reducing the vulnerability of rhinoceros to the likely impacts of climate change. This study is the first of its kind in Nepal and is expected to provide a guideline to align ongoing conservation measures into climate change adaptation planning for rhinoceros. Further, we emphasise the need to integrating likely climate change impacts while planning for rhinoceros conservation and initiating experimental research and monitoring programs to better inform adaptation planning in the future.

Project description:BackgroundThe extant members of the Asian rhinos have experienced severe population and range declines since Pleistocene through a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. The one-horned rhino is the only Asian species recovered from such conditions but most of the extant populations are reaching carrying capacity. India currently harbours ~ 83% of the global wild one-horned rhino populations distributed across seven protected areas. Recent assessments recommend reintroduction-based conservation approaches for the species, and implementation of such efforts would greatly benefit from detailed genetic assessments and evolutionary history of these populations. Using mitochondrial data, we investigated the phylogeography, divergence and demographic history of one-horned rhinos across its Indian range.ResultsWe report the first complete mitogenome from all the extant Indian wild one-horned rhino populations (n = 16 individuals). Further, we identified all polymorphic sites and assessed rhino phylogeography (2531 bp mtDNA, n = 111 individuals) across India. Results showed 30 haplotypes distributed as three distinct genetic clades (Fst value 0.68-1) corresponding to the states of Assam (n = 28 haplotypes), West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh (both monomorphic). The reintroduced population of Uttar Pradesh showed maternal signatures of Chitwan National Park, Nepal. Mitochondrial phylogenomics suggests one-horned rhino diverged from its recent common ancestors ~ 950 Kya and different populations (Assam, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh/Nepal) coalesce at ~ 190-50 Kya, corroborating with the paleobiogeography history of the Indian subcontinent. Further, the demography analyses indicated historical decline in female effective population size ~ 300-200 Kya followed by increasing trends during ~ 110-60 Kya.ConclusionThe phylogeography and phylogenomic outcomes suggest recognition of three 'Evolutionary Significant Units (ESUs)' in Indian rhino. With ongoing genetic isolation of the current populations, future management efforts should focus on identifying genetically variable founder animals and consider periodic supplementation events while planning future rhino reintroduction programs in India. Such well-informed, multidisciplinary approach will be the only way to ensure evolutionary, ecological and demographic stability of the species across its range.

Project description:Land mammals support and move their body using their musculoskeletal system. Their musculature usually presents varying adaptations with body mass or mode of locomotion. Rhinocerotidae is an interesting clade in this regard, as they are heavy animals potentially reaching three tons but are still capable of adopting a galloping gait. However, their musculature has been poorly studied. Here we report the dissection of both forelimb and hindlimb of one neonate and one adult each for two species of rhinoceroses, the Indian rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) and the white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum). We show that their muscular organisation is similar to that of their relatives, equids and tapirs, and that few evolutionary convergences with other heavy mammals (e.g. elephants and hippopotamuses) are present. Nevertheless, they show clear adaptations to their large body mass, such as more distal insertions for the protractor and adductor muscles of the limbs, giving them longer lever arms. The quantitative architecture of rhino muscles is again reminiscent of that of horses and tapirs, although contrary to horses, the forelimb is much stronger than the hindlimb, which is likely due to its great role in body mass support. Muscles involved mainly in counteracting gravity (e.g. serratus ventralis thoracis, infraspinatus, gastrocnemius, flexores digitorum) are usually highly pennate with short fascicles facilitating strong joint extension. Muscles involved in propulsion (e.g. gluteal muscles, gluteobiceps, quadriceps femoris) seem to represent a compromise between a high maximal isometric force and long fascicles, allowing a reasonably fast and wide working range. Neonates present higher normalized maximal isometric force than the adults for almost every muscle, except sometimes for the extensor and propulsor muscles, which presumably acquire their great force-generating capacity during the growth of the animal. Our study clarifies the way the muscles of animals of cursorial ancestry can adapt to support a greater body mass and calls for further investigations in other clades of large body mass.

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Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios.

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