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Sensitivity of wastewater-based epidemiology for detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a low prevalence setting.

ABSTRACT: To assist public health responses to COVID-19, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is being utilised internationally to monitor SARS-CoV-2 infections at the community level. However, questions remain regarding the sensitivity of WBE and its use in low prevalence settings. In this study, we estimated the total number of COVID-19 cases required for detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater. To do this, we leveraged a unique situation where, over a 4-month period, all symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, in a population of approximately 120,000, were precisely known and mainly located in a single managed isolation and quarantine facility (MIQF) building. From 9 July to 6 November 2020, 24-hr composite wastewater samples (n = 113) were collected daily from the sewer outside the MIQF, and from the municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) located 5 km downstream. New daily COVID-19 cases at the MIQF ranged from 0 to 17, and for most of the study period there were no cases outside the MIQF identified. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 54.0% (61/113) at the WWTP, compared to 95.6% (108/113) at the MIQF. We used logistic regression to estimate the shedding of SARS-CoV-2 RNA into wastewater based on four infectious shedding models. With a total of 5 and 10 COVID-19 infectious cases per 100,000 population (0.005% and 0.01% prevalence) the predicated probability of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection at the WWTP was estimated to be 28 and 41%, respectively. When a proportional shedding model was used, this increased to 58% and 87% for 5 and 10 cases, respectively. In other words, when 10 individuals were actively shedding SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a catchment of 100,000 individuals, there was a high likelihood of detecting viral RNA in wastewater. SARS-CoV-2 RNA detections at the WWTP were associated with increasing COVID-19 cases. Our results show that WBE provides a reliable and sensitive platform for detecting infections at the community scale, even when case prevalence is low, and can be of use as an early warning system for community outbreaks.

SUBMITTER: Hewitt J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8720482 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused more than 200,000 reported COVID-19 cases in Spain resulting in more than 20,800 deaths as of April 21, 2020. Faecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from COVID-19 patients has extensively been reported. Therefore, we investigated the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in six wastewater treatments plants (WWTPs) serving the major municipalities within the Region of Murcia (Spain), the area with the lowest COVID-19 prevalence within Iberian Peninsula. Firstly, an aluminum hydroxide adsorption-precipitation concentration method was validated using a porcine coronavirus (Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus, PEDV) and mengovirus (MgV). The procedure resulted in average recoveries of 10 ± 3.5% and 10 ± 2.1% in influent water (n = 2) and 3.3 ± 1.6% and 6.2 ± 1.0% in effluent water (n = 2) samples for PEDV and MgV, respectively. Then, the method was used to monitor the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 from March 12 to April 14, 2020 in influent, secondary and tertiary effluent water samples. By using the real-time RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) Diagnostic Panel validated by US CDC that targets three regions of the virus nucleocapsid (N) gene, we estimated quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA titers in untreated wastewater samples of 5.4 ± 0.2 log10 genomic copies/L on average. Two secondary water samples resulted positive (2 out of 18) and all tertiary water samples tested as negative (0 out 12). This environmental surveillance data were compared to declared COVID-19 cases at municipality level, revealing that members of the community were shedding SARS-CoV-2 RNA in their stool even before the first cases were reported by local or national authorities in many of the cities where wastewaters have been sampled. The detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater in early stages of the spread of COVID-19 highlights the relevance of this strategy as an early indicator of the infection within a specific population. At this point, this environmental surveillance could be implemented by municipalities right away as a tool, designed to help authorities to coordinate the exit strategy to gradually lift its coronavirus lockdown.

Project description:Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 RNA is increasingly being incorporated into public health efforts to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to obtain the maximum benefit from these efforts, approaches to wastewater monitoring need to be rapid, sensitive, and relatable to relevant epidemiological parameters. In this study, we present an ultracentrifugation-based method for the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater RNA and use crAssphage, a bacteriophage specific to the human gut, to help account for RNA loss during transit in the wastewater system and sample processing. With these methods, we were able to detect, and sometimes quantify, SARS-CoV-2 RNA from 20 mL wastewater samples within as little as 4.5 hours. Using known concentrations of bovine coronavirus RNA and deactivated SARS-CoV-2, we estimate recovery rates of approximately 7-12% of viral RNA using our method. Results from 24 sewersheds across Upstate New York during the spring and summer of 2020 suggested that stronger signals of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from wastewater may be indicative of greater COVID-19 incidence in the represented service area approximately one week in advance. SARS-CoV-2 wastewater RNA was quantifiable in some service areas with daily positives tests of less than 1 per 10,000 people or when weekly positive test rates within a sewershed were as low as 1.7%. crAssphage DNA concentrations were significantly lower during periods of high flow in almost all areas studied. After accounting for flow rate and population served, crAssphage levels per capita were estimated to be about 1.35 × 1011 and 2.42 × 108 genome copies per day for DNA and RNA, respectively. A negative relationship between per capita crAssphage RNA and service area size was also observed likely reflecting degradation of RNA over long transit times. Our results reinforce the potential for wastewater surveillance to be used as a tool to supplement understanding of infectious disease transmission obtained by traditional testing and highlight the potential for crAssphage co-detection to improve interpretations of wastewater surveillance data.

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Sensitivity of wastewater-based epidemiology for detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a low prevalence setting.

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