Personalized prediction of rehabilitation outcomes in multiple sclerosis: a proof-of-concept using clinical data, digital health metrics, and machine learning.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kanzler CM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8724183 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:(1) Background: Cardiac amyloidosis (CA) is a rare and complex condition with poor prognosis. While novel therapies improve outcomes, many affected individuals remain undiagnosed due to a lack of awareness among clinicians. This study was undertaken to develop an expert-independent machine learning (ML) prediction model for CA relying on routinely determined laboratory parameters. (2) Methods: In a first step, we developed baseline linear models based on logistic regression. In a second step, we used an ML algorithm based on gradient tree boosting to improve our linear prediction model, and to perform non-linear prediction. Then, we compared the performance of all diagnostic algorithms. All prediction models were developed on a training cohort, consisting of patients with proven CA (positive cases, n = 121) and amyloidosis-unrelated heart failure (HF) patients (negative cases, n = 415). Performances of all prediction models were evaluated on a separate prognostic validation cohort with 37 CA-positive and 124 CA-negative patients. (3) Results: Our best model, based on gradient-boosted ensembles of decision trees, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) score of 0.86, with sensitivity and specificity of 89.2% and 78.2%, respectively. The best linear model had an ROC AUC score of 0.75, with sensitivity and specificity of 84.6 and 71.7, respectively. (4) Conclusions: Our work demonstrates that ML makes it possible to utilize basic laboratory parameters to generate a distinct CA-related HF profile compared with CA-unrelated HF patients. This proof-of-concept study opens a potential new avenue in the diagnostic workup of CA and may assist physicians in clinical reasoning.
| S-EPMC7290438 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDespite decades of research, sepsis remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in intensive care units worldwide. The key to effective management and patient outcome is early detection, for which no prospectively validated machine learning prediction algorithm is currently available for clinical use in Europe.ObjectiveWe aimed to develop a high-performance machine learning sepsis prediction algorithm based on routinely collected intensive care unit data, designed to be implemented in European intensive care units.MethodsThe machine learning algorithm was developed using convolutional neural networks, based on Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lab for Computational Physiology MIMIC-III clinical data from intensive care unit patients aged 18 years or older. The model uses 20 variables to produce hourly predictions of onset of sepsis, defined by international Sepsis-3 criteria. Predictive performance was externally validated using hold-out test data.ResultsThe algorithm-NAVOY Sepsis-uses 4 hours of input and can identify patients with high risk of developing sepsis, with high performance (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve 0.90; area under the precision-recall curve 0.62) for predictions up to 3 hours before sepsis onset.ConclusionsThe prediction performance of NAVOY Sepsis was superior to that of existing sepsis early warning scoring systems and comparable with those of other prediction algorithms designed to predict sepsis onset. The algorithm has excellent predictive properties and uses variables that are routinely collected in intensive care units.
| S-EPMC8517825 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Gene expression profiles were generated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. Samples 1-176 were used in another study, GEO Series GSE22820, and form the training data set in this study. Sample numbers 200-222 form a validation set. This data is used to model a machine learning classifier for Estrogen Receptor Status. RNA was isolated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. A machine learning classifier was built to predict ER status using only three gene features.
2013-01-01 | E-GEOD-29210 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:BackgroundThe care of traumatized children would benefit significantly from accurate predictive models for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), using information available around the time of trauma. Machine Learning (ML) computational methods have yielded strong results in recent applications across many diseases and data types, yet they have not been previously applied to childhood PTSD. Since these methods have not been applied to this complex and debilitating disorder, there is a great deal that remains to be learned about their application. The first step is to prove the concept: Can ML methods - as applied in other fields - produce predictive classification models for childhood PTSD? Additionally, we seek to determine if specific variables can be identified - from the aforementioned predictive classification models - with putative causal relations to PTSD.MethodsML predictive classification methods - with causal discovery feature selection - were applied to a data set of 163 children hospitalized with an injury and PTSD was determined three months after hospital discharge. At the time of hospitalization, 105 risk factor variables were collected spanning a range of biopsychosocial domains.ResultsSeven percent of subjects had a high level of PTSD symptoms. A predictive classification model was discovered with significant predictive accuracy. A predictive model constructed based on subsets of potentially causally relevant features achieves similar predictivity compared to the best predictive model constructed with all variables. Causal Discovery feature selection methods identified 58 variables of which 10 were identified as most stable.ConclusionsIn this first proof-of-concept application of ML methods to predict childhood Posttraumatic Stress we were able to determine both predictive classification models for childhood PTSD and identify several causal variables. This set of techniques has great potential for enhancing the methodological toolkit in the field and future studies should seek to replicate, refine, and extend the results produced in this study.
| S-EPMC5502325 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Introduction: Severe mitral regurgitation (MR) is a mitral valve disease that can lead to lifethreatening complications. MitraClip (MC) therapy is a percutaneous solution for patients who cannot tolerate surgical solutions. In MC therapy, a clip is implanted in the heart to reduce MR. To achieve optimal MC therapy, the cardiologist needs to foresee the outcomes of different scenarios for MC implantation, including the location of the MC. Although finite element (FE) modeling can simulate the outcomes of different MC scenarios, it is not suitable for clinical usage because it requires several hours to complete. Methods: In this paper, we used machine learning (ML) to predict the outcomes of MC therapy in less than 1 s. Two ML algorithms were used: XGBoost, which is a decision tree model, and a feed-forward deep learning (DL) model. The MC location, the geometrical attributes of the models and baseline stress and MR were the features of the ML models, and the predictions were performed for MR and maximum von Mises stress in the leaflets. The parameters of the ML models were determined to achieve the minimum errors obtained by applying the ML models on the validation set. Results: The results for the test set (not used during training) showed relative agreement between ML predictions and ground truth FE predictions. The accuracy of the XGBoost models were better than DL models. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the XGBoost predictions were 0.115 and 0.231, and the MAPE for DL predictions were 0.154 and 0.310, for MR and stress, respectively. Discussion: The ML models reduced the FE runtime from 6 hours (on average) to less than 1 s. The accuracy of ML models can be increased by increasing the dataset size. The results of this study have important implications for improving the outcomes of MC therapy by providing information about the outcomes of MC implantation in real-time.
| S-EPMC10033889 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The successful introduction of homomorphic encryption (HE) in clinical research holds promise for improving acceptance of data-sharing protocols, increasing sample sizes, and accelerating learning from real-world data (RWD). A well-scoped use case for HE would pave the way for more widespread adoption in healthcare applications. Determining the efficacy of targeted cancer treatments used off-label for a variety of genetically defined conditions is an excellent candidate for introduction of HE-based learning systems because of a significant unmet need to share and combine confidential data, the use of relatively simple algorithms, and an opportunity to reach large numbers of willing study participants. METHODS:We used published literature to estimate the numbers of patients who might be eligible to receive treatments approved for other indications based on molecular profiles. We then estimated the sample size and number of variables that would be required for a successful system to detect exceptional responses with sufficient power. We generated an appropriately sized, simulated dataset (n = 5000) and used an established HE algorithm to detect exceptional responses and calculate total drug exposure, while the data remained encrypted. RESULTS:Our results demonstrated the feasibility of using an HE-based system to identify exceptional responders and perform calculations on patient data during a hypothetical 3-year study. Although homomorphically encrypted computations are time consuming, the required basic computations (i.e., addition) do not pose a critical bottleneck to the analysis. CONCLUSION:In this proof-of-concept study, based on simulated data, we demonstrate that identifying exceptional responders to targeted cancer treatments represents a valuable and feasible use case. Past solutions to either completely anonymize data or restrict access through stringent data use agreements have limited the utility of abundant and valuable data. Because of its privacy protections, we believe that an HE-based learning system for real-world cancer treatment would entice thousands more patients to voluntarily contribute data through participation in research studies beyond the currently available secondary data populated from hospital electronic health records and administrative claims. Forming collaborations between technical experts, physicians, patient advocates, payers, and researchers, and testing the system on existing RWD are critical next steps to making HE-based learning a reality in healthcare.
| S-EPMC6894133 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay is the accepted standard for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis. As any test, RT-PCR provides false negative results that can be rectified by clinicians by confronting clinical, biological and imaging data. The combination of RT-PCR and chest-CT could improve diagnosis performance, but this would requires considerable resources for its rapid use in all patients with suspected COVID-19. The potential contribution of machine learning in this situation has not been fully evaluated. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate machine learning models using routine clinical and laboratory data to improve the performance of RT-PCR and chest-CT for COVID-19 diagnosis among post-emergency hospitalized patients. All adults admitted to the ED for suspected COVID-19, and then hospitalized at Rennes academic hospital, France, between March 20, 2020 and May 5, 2020 were included in the study. Three model types were created: logistic regression, random forest, and neural network. Each model was trained to diagnose COVID-19 using different sets of variables. Area under the receiving operator characteristics curve (AUC) was the primary outcome to evaluate model's performances. 536 patients were included in the study: 106 in the COVID group, 430 in the NOT-COVID group. The AUC values of chest-CT and RT-PCR increased from 0.778 to 0.892 and from 0.852 to 0.930, respectively, with the contribution of machine learning. After generalization, machine learning models will allow increasing chest-CT and RT-PCR performances for COVID-19 diagnosis.
| S-EPMC8009887 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Long-COVID patients present with a decline in physical fitness. The aim of this study is to reveal the impact of pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) on physical fitness, quality of life (QoL), and parameters of quantified thorax CT. Long-COVID patients enrolled in a 3-month PR program were retrospectively studied. PR included endurance and resistance training three times a week. Assessments pre- and post-rehabilitation included quantified chest CT, pulmonary function tests (PFT), six-minute walk test (6MWT), cardiopulmonary exercise test, and questionnaires: Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, post-COVID-19 Functional Status scale, Borg score, and EuroQol. Seventeen subjects (5M/12F), mean age 42 ± 13 years, were included. PR improved all questionnaires' results significantly. Only significant difference in PFT parameters was correlation between baseline total lung capacity (TLC) and difference in TLC pre- and post-rehabilitation (p = 0.002). 6MWT increased from 329 to 365 m (p < 0.001), VO2max changed from 21 to 24 mL/kg/min (p = 0.007), peak load increased from 116 to 141 Watt (p < 0.001). Blood volume in small pulmonary vessels of 1.25 to 5 mm2 in cross-sectional area (BV5%) was higher than observed in patients with acute COVID-19 infection. After rehabilitation, BV5% decreased from 65% to 62% (p = 0.020). These changes correlated directly with changes in TLC (p = 0.039). Quantified CT airway volume increased after rehabilitation (p = 0.013). After rehabilitation, TLC tended to normalize due to (re)opening of small airways, with decline in air trapping and recruitment of alveoli. Furthermore, this study revealed that pulmonary rehabilitation can improve QoL and physical fitness in long-COVID patients.
| S-EPMC10830387 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Many chemicals that disrupt endocrine function have been linked to a variety of adverse biological outcomes. However, screening for endocrine disruption using in vitro or in vivo approaches is costly and time-consuming. Computational methods, e.g., quantitative structure-activity relationship models, have become more reliable due to bigger training sets, increased computing power, and advanced machine learning algorithms, such as multilayered artificial neural networks. Machine learning models can be used to predict compounds for endocrine disrupting capabilities, such as binding to the estrogen receptor (ER), and allow for prioritization and further testing. In this work, an exhaustive comparison of multiple machine learning algorithms, chemical spaces, and evaluation metrics for ER binding was performed on public data sets curated using in-house cheminformatics software (Assay Central). Chemical features utilized in modeling consisted of binary fingerprints (ECFP6, FCFP6, ToxPrint, or MACCS keys) and continuous molecular descriptors from RDKit. Each feature set was subjected to classic machine learning algorithms (Bernoulli Naive Bayes, AdaBoost Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine) and Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Models were evaluated using a variety of metrics: recall, precision, F1-score, accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, Cohen's Kappa, and Matthews correlation coefficient. For predicting compounds within the training set, DNN has an accuracy higher than that of other methods; however, in 5-fold cross validation and external test set predictions, DNN and most classic machine learning models perform similarly regardless of the data set or molecular descriptors used. We have also used the rank normalized scores as a performance-criteria for each machine learning method, and Random Forest performed best on the validation set when ranked by metric or by data sets. These results suggest classic machine learning algorithms may be sufficient to develop high quality predictive models of ER activity.
| S-EPMC6181119 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Early childhood asthma diagnosis is common; however, many children diagnosed before age 5 experience symptom resolution and it remains difficult to identify individuals whose symptoms will persist. Our objective was to develop machine learning models to identify which individuals diagnosed with asthma before age 5 continue to experience asthma-related visits. We curated a retrospective dataset for 9,934 children derived from electronic health record (EHR) data. We trained five machine learning models to differentiate individuals without subsequent asthma-related visits (transient diagnosis) from those with asthma-related visits between ages 5 and 10 (persistent diagnosis) given clinical information up to age 5 years. Based on average NPV-Specificity area (ANSA), all models performed significantly better than random chance, with XGBoost obtaining the best performance (0.43 mean ANSA). Feature importance analysis indicated age of last asthma diagnosis under 5 years, total number of asthma related visits, self-identified black race, allergic rhinitis, and eczema as important features. Although our models appear to perform well, a lack of prior models utilizing a large number of features to predict individual persistence makes direct comparison infeasible. However, feature importance analysis indicates our models are consistent with prior research indicating diagnosis age and prior health service utilization as important predictors of persistent asthma. We therefore find that machine learning models can predict which individuals will experience persistent asthma with good performance and may be useful to guide clinician and parental decisions regarding asthma counselling in early childhood.
| S-EPMC7920380 | biostudies-literature