Dataset Information

Assessment of Simulated Surveillance Testing and Quarantine in a SARS-CoV-2-Vaccinated Population of Students on a University Campus.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

The importance of surveillance testing and quarantine on university campuses to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission needs to be reevaluated in the context of a complex and rapidly changing environment that includes vaccines, variants, and waning immunity. Also, recent US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines suggest that vaccinated students do not need to participate in surveillance testing.

Objective

To evaluate the use of surveillance testing and quarantine in a fully vaccinated student population for whom vaccine effectiveness may be affected by the type of vaccination, presence of variants, and loss of vaccine-induced or natural immunity over time.

Design setting and participants

In this simulation study, an agent-based Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered model was developed with some parameters estimated using data from the 2020 to 2021 academic year at Duke University (Durham, North Carolina) that described a simulated population of 5000 undergraduate students residing on campus in residential dormitories. This study assumed that 100% of residential undergraduates are vaccinated. Under varying levels of vaccine effectiveness (90%, 75%, and 50%), the reductions in the numbers of positive cases under various mitigation strategies that involved surveillance testing and quarantine were estimated.

Main outcomes and measures

The percentage of students infected with SARS-CoV-2 each day for the course of the semester (100 days) and the total number of isolated or quarantined students were estimated.

Results

A total of 5000 undergraduates were simulated in the study. In simulations with 90% vaccine effectiveness, weekly surveillance testing was associated with only marginally reduced viral transmission. At 50% to 75% effectiveness, surveillance testing was estimated to reduce the number of infections by as much as 93.6%. A 10-day quarantine protocol for exposures was associated with only modest reduction in infections until vaccine effectiveness dropped to 50%. Increased testing of reported contacts was estimated to be at least as effective as quarantine at limiting infections.

Conclusions and relevance

In this simulated modeling study of infection dynamics on a college campus where 100% of the student body is vaccinated, weekly surveillance testing was associated with a substantial reduction of campus infections with even a modest loss of vaccine effectiveness. Model simulations also suggested that an increased testing cadence can be as effective as a 10-day quarantine period at limiting infections. Together, these findings provide a potential foundation for universities to design appropriate mitigation protocols for the 2021 to 2022 academic year.

SUBMITTER: Motta FC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8727034 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Assessment of Simulated Surveillance Testing and Quarantine in a SARS-CoV-2-Vaccinated Population of Students on a University Campus.

Motta Francis C FC McGoff Kevin A KA Deckard Anastasia A Wolfe Cameron R CR Bonsignori Mattia M Moody M Anthony MA Cavanaugh Kyle K Denny Thomas N TN Harer John J Haase Steven B SB

JAMA health forum 20211001 10

<h4>Importance</h4>The importance of surveillance testing and quarantine on university campuses to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission needs to be reevaluated in the context of a complex and rapidly changing environment that includes vaccines, variants, and waning immunity. Also, recent US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines suggest that vaccinated students do not need to participate in surveillance testing.<h4>Objective</h4>To evaluate the use of surveillance testing and quarantine ...[more]

PMID: 35977169

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Project description:Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is utilized globally as a tool for quantifying the amount of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) within communities, yet the efficacy of community-level wastewater monitoring has yet to be directly compared to random Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) clinical testing; the best-supported method of virus surveillance within a single population. This study evaluated the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 RNA in raw wastewater and random COVID-19 clinical testing on a large university campus in the Southwestern United States during the Fall 2020 semester. Daily composites of wastewater (24-hour samples) were collected three times per week at two campus locations from 16 August 2020 to 1 January 2021 (n = 95) and analyzed by reverse transcriptase-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) targeting the SARS-CoV-2 E gene. Campus populations were estimated using campus resident information and anonymized, unique user Wi-Fi connections. Resultant trends of SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater were consistent with local and nationwide pandemic trends showing peaks in infections at the start of the Fall semester in mid-August 2020 and mid-to-late December 2020. A strong positive correlation (r = 0.71 (p < 0.01); n = 15) was identified between random COVID-19 clinical testing and WBE surveillance methods, suggesting that wastewater surveillance has a predictive power similar to that of random clinical testing. Additionally, a comparative cost analysis between wastewater and clinical methods conducted here show that WBE was more cost effective, providing data at 1.7% of the total cost of clinical testing ($6042 versus $338,000, respectively). We conclude that wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 performed in tandem with random clinical testing can strengthen campus health surveillance, and its economic advantages are maximized when performed routinely as a primary surveillance method, with random clinical testing reserved for an active outbreak situation.

Project description:Targeted wastewater surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been proposed by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Wastewater Surveillance System as a complementary approach to clinical surveillance to detect the presence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) at high-density facilities and institutions such as university campuses, nursing homes, and correctional facilities. In this study we evaluated the efficacy of targeted wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 RNA together with individual-level testing for outbreak mitigation on a university campus during Fall 2020 semester. Wastewater samples (n = 117) were collected weekly from manholes or sewer cleanouts that receive wastewater inputs from dormitories, community-use buildings, and a COVID-19 isolation dormitory. Quantitative RT-PCR N1 and N2 assays were used to measure SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid genes in wastewater. Due to varying human waste input in different buildings, pepper mild mottle virus (PMMV) RNA was also measured in all samples and used to normalize SARS-CoV-2 N1 and N2 RNA wastewater concentrations. In this study, temporal trends of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater samples mirrored trends in COVID-19 cases detected on campus. Normalizing SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations using human fecal indicator, PMMV enhanced the correlation between N1 and N2 gene abundances in wastewater with COVID-19 cases. N1 and N2 genes were significant predictors of COVID-19 cases in dormitories, and the N2 gene was significantly correlated with the number of detected COVID-19 cases in dormitories. By implementing several public health surveillance programs include targeted wastewater surveillance, individual-level testing, contact tracing, and quarantine/isolation facilities, university health administrators could act decisively during an outbreak on campus, resulting in rapid decline of newly detected COVID-19 cases. Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is a proactive outbreak monitoring tool for university campuses seeking to continue higher education practices in person during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dataset Information

Assessment of Simulated Surveillance Testing and Quarantine in a SARS-CoV-2-Vaccinated Population of Students on a University Campus.

Importance

Objective

Design setting and participants

Main outcomes and measures

Results

Conclusions and relevance

Publications

Assessment of Simulated Surveillance Testing and Quarantine in a SARS-CoV-2-Vaccinated Population of Students on a University Campus.

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