SWIFT: A deep learning approach to prediction of hypoxemic events in critically-Ill patients using SpO2 waveform prediction.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Annapragada AV
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8730462 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Hypoxemia is a significant driver of mortality and poor clinical outcomes in conditions such as brain injury and cardiac arrest in critically ill patients, including COVID-19 patients. Given the host of negative clinical outcomes attributed to hypoxemia, identifying patients likely to experience hypoxemia would offer valuable opportunities for early and thus more effective intervention. We present SWIFT (SpO 2 W aveform I CU F orecasting T echnique), a deep learning model that predicts blood oxygen saturation (SpO 2 ) waveforms 5 and 30 minutes in the future using only prior SpO 2 values as inputs. When tested on novel data, SWIFT predicts more than 80% and 60% of hypoxemic events in critically ill and COVID-19 patients, respectively. SWIFT also predicts SpO 2 waveforms with average MSE below .0007. SWIFT provides information on both occurrence and magnitude of potential hypoxemic events 30 minutes in advance, allowing it to be used to inform clinical interventions, patient triaging, and optimal resource allocation. SWIFT may be used in clinical decision support systems to inform the management of critically ill patients during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.
| S-EPMC7941630 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe rapid development in big data analytics and the data-rich environment of intensive care units together provide unprecedented opportunities for medical breakthroughs in the field of critical care. We developed and validated a machine learning-based model, the Pediatric Risk of Mortality Prediction Tool (PROMPT), for real-time prediction of all-cause mortality in pediatric intensive care units.MethodsUtilizing two separate retrospective observational cohorts, we conducted model development and validation using a machine learning algorithm with a convolutional neural network. The development cohort comprised 1445 pediatric patients with 1977 medical encounters admitted to intensive care units from January 2011 to December 2017 at Severance Hospital (Seoul, Korea). The validation cohort included 278 patients with 364 medical encounters admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit from January 2016 to November 2017 at Samsung Medical Center.ResultsUsing seven vital signs, along with patient age and body weight on intensive care unit admission, PROMPT achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the range of 0.89-0.97 for mortality prediction 6 to 60 h prior to death. Our results demonstrated that PROMPT provided high sensitivity with specificity and outperformed the conventional severity scoring system, the Pediatric Index of Mortality, in predictive ability. Model performance was indistinguishable between the development and validation cohorts.ConclusionsPROMPT is a deep model-based, data-driven early warning score tool that can predict mortality in critically ill children and may be useful for the timely identification of deteriorating patients.
| S-EPMC6694497 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The sudden deterioration of patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) into critical illness is of major concern. It is imperative to identify these patients early. We show that a deep learning-based survival model can predict the risk of COVID-19 patients developing critical illness based on clinical characteristics at admission. We develop this model using a cohort of 1590 patients from 575 medical centers, with internal validation performance of concordance index 0.894 We further validate the model on three separate cohorts from Wuhan, Hubei and Guangdong provinces consisting of 1393 patients with concordance indexes of 0.890, 0.852 and 0.967 respectively. This model is used to create an online calculation tool designed for patient triage at admission to identify patients at risk of severe illness, ensuring that patients at greatest risk of severe illness receive appropriate care as early as possible and allow for effective allocation of health resources.
| S-EPMC7363899 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Visual interpretation of electroencephalography (EEG) is time consuming, may lack objectivity, and is restricted to features detectable by a human. Computer-based approaches, especially deep learning, could potentially overcome these limitations. However, most deep learning studies focus on a specific question or a single pathology. Here we explore the potential of deep learning for EEG-based diagnostic and prognostic assessment of patients with acute consciousness impairment (ACI) of various etiologies. EEGs from 358 adults from a randomized controlled trial (CERTA, NCT03129438) were retrospectively analyzed. A convolutional neural network was used to predict the clinical outcome (based either on survival or on best cerebral performance category) and to determine the etiology (four diagnostic categories). The largest probability output served as marker for the confidence of the network in its prediction ("certainty factor"); we also systematically compared the predictions with raw EEG data, and used a visualization algorithm (Grad-CAM) to highlight discriminative patterns. When all patients were considered, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.721 for predicting survival and 0.703 for predicting the outcome based on best CPC; for patients with certainty factor ≥ 60 % the AUCs increased to 0.776 and 0.755 respectively; and for certainty factor ≥ 75 % to 0.852 and 0.879. The accuracy for predicting the etiology was 54.5 %; the accuracy increased to 67.7 %, 70.3 % and 84.1 % for patients with certainty factor of 50 %, 60 % and 75 % respectively. Visual analysis showed that the network learnt EEG patterns typically recognized by human experts, and suggested new criteria. This work demonstrates for the first time the potential of deep learning-based EEG analysis in critically ill patients with various etiologies of ACI. Certainty factor and post-hoc correlation of input data with prediction help to better characterize the method and pave the route for future implementations in clinical routine.
| S-EPMC9441331 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesCritically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 have variable mortality. Risk scores could improve care and be used for prognostic enrichment in trials. We aimed to compare machine learning algorithms and develop a simple tool for predicting 28-day mortality in ICU patients with coronavirus disease 2019.DesignThis was an observational study of adult patients with coronavirus disease 2019. The primary outcome was 28-day inhospital mortality. Machine learning models and a simple tool were derived using variables from the first 48 hours of ICU admission and validated externally in independent sites and temporally with more recent admissions. Models were compared with a modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, National Early Warning Score, and CURB-65 using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration.SettingSixty-eight U.S. ICUs.PatientsAdults with coronavirus disease 2019 admitted to 68 ICUs in the United States between March 4, 2020, and June 29, 2020.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsThe study included 5,075 patients, 1,846 (36.4%) of whom died by day 28. eXtreme Gradient Boosting had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in external validation (0.81) and was well-calibrated, while k-nearest neighbors were the lowest performing machine learning algorithm (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.69). Findings were similar with temporal validation. The simple tool, which was created using the most important features from the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model, had a significantly higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in external validation (0.78) than the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (0.69), National Early Warning Score (0.60), and CURB-65 (0.65; p < 0.05 for all comparisons). Age, number of ICU beds, creatinine, lactate, arterial pH, and Pao2/Fio2 ratio were the most important predictors in the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model.ConclusionseXtreme Gradient Boosting had the highest discrimination overall, and our simple tool had higher discrimination than a modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, National Early Warning Score, and CURB-65 on external validation. These models could be used to improve triage decisions and clinical trial enrichment.
| S-EPMC8378790 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Traditional methods for assessing illness severity and predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients require time-consuming, error-prone calculations using static variable thresholds. These methods do not capitalize on the emerging availability of streaming electronic health record data or capture time-sensitive individual physiological patterns, a critical task in the intensive care unit. We propose a novel acuity score framework (DeepSOFA) that leverages temporal measurements and interpretable deep learning models to assess illness severity at any point during an ICU stay. We compare DeepSOFA with SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) baseline models using the same model inputs and find that at any point during an ICU admission, DeepSOFA yields significantly more accurate predictions of in-hospital mortality. A DeepSOFA model developed in a public database and validated in a single institutional cohort had a mean AUC for the entire ICU stay of 0.90 (95% CI 0.90-0.91) compared with baseline SOFA models with mean AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.79-0.80) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.85-0.86). Deep models are well-suited to identify ICU patients in need of life-saving interventions prior to the occurrence of an unexpected adverse event and inform shared decision-making processes among patients, providers, and families regarding goals of care and optimal resource utilization.
| S-EPMC6372608 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivePain assessment based on facial expressions is an essential issue in critically ill patients, but an automated assessment tool is still lacking. We conducted this prospective study to establish the deep learning-based pain classifier based on facial expressions.MethodsWe enrolled critically ill patients during 2020-2021 at a tertiary hospital in central Taiwan and recorded video clips with labeled pain scores based on facial expressions, such as relaxed (0), tense (1), and grimacing (2). We established both image- and video-based pain classifiers through using convolutional neural network (CNN) models, such as Resnet34, VGG16, and InceptionV1 and bidirectional long short-term memory networks (BiLSTM). The performance of classifiers in the test dataset was determined by accuracy, sensitivity, and F1-score.ResultsA total of 63 participants with 746 video clips were eligible for analysis. The accuracy of using Resnet34 in the polychromous image-based classifier for pain scores 0, 1, 2 was merely 0.5589, and the accuracy of dichotomous pain classifiers between 0 vs. 1/2 and 0 vs. 2 were 0.7668 and 0.8593, respectively. Similar accuracy of image-based pain classifier was found using VGG16 and InceptionV1. The accuracy of the video-based pain classifier to classify 0 vs. 1/2 and 0 vs. 2 was approximately 0.81 and 0.88, respectively. We further tested the performance of established classifiers without reference, mimicking clinical scenarios with a new patient, and found the performance remained high.ConclusionsThe present study demonstrates the practical application of deep learning-based automated pain assessment in critically ill patients, and more studies are warranted to validate our findings.
| S-EPMC8968070 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Study objectiveTriage quickly identifies critically ill patients, facilitating timely interventions. Many emergency departments (EDs) use emergency severity index (ESI) or abnormal vital sign triggers to guide triage. However, both use fixed thresholds, and false activations are costly. Prior approaches using machinelearning have relied on information that is often unavailable during the triage process. We examined whether deep-learning approaches could identify critically ill patients only using data immediately available at triage.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional study at an urban tertiary care center, from January 1, 2012-January 1, 2020. De-identified triage information included structured (age, sex, initial vital signs) and textual (chief complaint) data, with critical illness (mortality or ICU admission within 24 hours) as the outcome. Four progressively complex deep-learning models were trained and applied to triage information from all patients. We compared the accuracy of the models against ESI as the standard diagnostic test, using area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC).ResultsA total of 445,925 patients were included, with 60,901 (13.7%) critically ill. Vital sign thresholds identified critically ill patients with AUC 0.521 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.519-0.522), and ESI <3 demonstrated AUC 0.672 (95% CI = 0.671-0.674), logistic regression classified patients with AUC 0.803 (95% CI = 0.802-0.804), 2-layer neural network with structured data with AUC 0.811 (95% CI = 0.807-0.815), gradient tree boosting with AUC 0.820 (95% CI = 0.818-0.821), and the neural network model with textual data with AUC 0.851 (95% CI = 0.849-0.852). All successive increases in AUC were statistically significant.ConclusionDeep-learning techniques represent a promising method of augmenting triage, even with limited information. Further research is needed to determine if improved predictions yield clinical and operational benefits.
| S-EPMC7593422 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Prediction of survival for patients in intensive care units (ICUs) has been subject to intense research. However, no models exist that embrace the multiverse of data in ICUs. It is an open question whether deep learning methods using automated data integration with minimal pre-processing of mixed data domains such as free text, medical history and high-frequency data can provide discrete-time survival estimates for individual ICU patients. We trained a deep learning model on data from patients admitted to ten ICUs in the Capital Region of Denmark and the Region of Southern Denmark between 2011 and 2018. Inspired by natural language processing we mapped the electronic patient record data to an embedded representation and fed the data to a recurrent neural network with a multi-label output layer representing the chance of survival at different follow-up times. We evaluated the performance using the time-dependent concordance index. In addition, we quantified and visualized the drivers of survival predictions using the SHAP methodology. We included 37,355 admissions of 29,417 patients in our study. Our deep learning models outperformed traditional Cox proportional-hazard models with concordance index in the ranges 0.72-0.73, 0.71-0.72, 0.71, and 0.69-0.70, for models applied at baseline 0, 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively. Deep learning models based on a combination of entity embeddings and survival modelling is a feasible approach to obtain individualized survival estimates in data-rich settings such as the ICU. The interpretable nature of the models enables us to understand the impact of the different data domains.
| S-EPMC9474816 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Acute respiratory failure is the leading reason for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in immunocompromised patients, and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation has become a major clinical endpoint in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, data are lacking on whether intubation is an objective criteria that is used unbiasedly across centers. This study explores how this outcome varies across ICUs. METHODS:Hierarchical models and permutation procedures for testing multiple random effects were applied on both data from an observational cohort (the TRIAL-OH study: 703 patients, 17 ICUs) and a randomized controlled trial (the HIGH trial: 776 patients, 31 ICUs) to characterize ICU variation in intubation risk across centers. RESULTS:The crude intubation rate varied across ICUs from 29 to 80% in the observational cohort and from 0 to 86% in the RCT. This center effect on the mean ICU intubation rate was statistically significant, even after adjustment on individual patient characteristics (observational cohort: p value?=?0.013, median OR 1.48 [1.30-1.72]; RCT: p value 0.004, median OR 1.51 [1.36-1.68]). Two ICU-level characteristics were associated with intubation risk (the annual rate of intubation procedure per center and the time from respiratory symptoms to ICU admission) and could partly explain this center effect. In the RCT that controlled for the use of high-flow oxygen therapy, we did not find significant variation in the effect of oxygenation strategy on intubation risk across centers, despite a significant variation in the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. CONCLUSION:Intubation rates varied considerably among ICUs, even after adjustment on individual characteristics.
| S-EPMC6731598 | biostudies-literature