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Nomogram Models for Predicting Risk and Prognosis of Newly Diagnosed Ovarian Cancer Patients with Liver Metastases - A Large Population-Based Real-World Study.

ABSTRACT: Background: Previous studies about liver metastases (LM) in newly diagnosed ovarian cancer (NDOC) patients based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program disregarded selection bias of missing data. Methods: We identified Data of NDOC patients from SEER between 2010 and 2016, presented a comprehensive description of this dataset, and limited possible biases due to missing data by applying multiple imputation (MI). We determined predictive factors for underlying LM development in NDOC patients and evaluated prognostic factors in NDOC patients with LM (OCLM). We then established predictive nomograms, assessed by the concordance index, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curves (CIC). Results: The amount of missing data for different variables in SEER dataset ranges from 0 to 36.11%. The results between complete dataset and MI datasets are similar. LM prevalence in NDOC patients was 7.18%, and median overall survival for OCLM patients was 11 months. The C-index of risk nomogram for LM development in the training cohort (TC) and validation cohort (VC) were 0.764 and 0.759, respectively. The C-index and integrated area under curve within five years of prognostic nomogram for OCLM patients in the TC and VC were 0.743 and 0.773, 0.714 and 0.733, respectively. For both nomograms, DCA revealed favorable clinical use and calibration curves suggested good consistency. Conclusion: The risk nomogram is expected to aid clinicians in identifying high-risk groups of LM development in NDOC patients for intensive screening. The prognostic nomogram could facilitate individualized prediction and stratification for clinical trials in OCLM patients.

SUBMITTER: Hou GM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8734403 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: Bone metastasis (BM) is one of the typical metastatic types of head and neck cancer (HNC). The occurrence of BM prevents the HNC patients from obtaining a long survival period. Early assessment of the possibility of BM could bring more therapy options for HNC patients, as well as a longer overall survival time. This study aims to identify independent BM risk factors and develop a diagnostic nomogram to predict BM risk in HNC patients. Methods: Patients diagnosed with HNC between 2010 and 2015 were retrospectively evaluated in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and then eligible patients were enrolled in our study. First, those patients were randomly assigned to training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Second, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the HNC patients' independent BM risk factors. Finally, the diagnostic nomogram's risk prediction capacity and clinical application value were assessed using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. Results: 39,561 HNC patients were enrolled in the study, and they were randomly divided into two sets: training (n = 27,693) and validation (n = 11,868). According to multivariate logistic regression analysis, race, primary site, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, and distant metastases (brain, liver, and lung) were all independent risk predictors of BM in HNC patients. The diagnostic nomogram was created using the above independent risk factors and had a high predictive capacity. The training and validation sets' area under the curves (AUC) were 0.893 and 0.850, respectively. The AUC values of independent risk predictors were all smaller than that of the constructed diagnostic nomogram. Meanwhile, the calibration curve and DCA also proved the reliability and accuracy of the diagnostic nomogram. Conclusion: The diagnostic nomogram can quickly assess the probability of BM in HNC patients, help doctors allocate medical resources more reasonably, and achieve personalized management, especially for HNC patients with a potentially high BM risk, thus acquiring better early education, early detection, and early diagnosis and treatment to maximize the benefits of patients.

Project description:Purpose: The purpose of this study was to analyze the frequency and prognosis of pulmonary metastases in newly diagnosed gastric cancer using population-based data from SEER. Methods: Patients with gastric cancer and pulmonary metastases (GCPM) at the time of diagnosis in advanced gastric cancer were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result (SEER) database of the National Cancer Institute from 2010 to 2014. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of the presence of GCPM at diagnosis. Receiver operator characteristics analysis was performed to significant predictors on multivariable logistic regression and was then assessed with Delong's test. Multivariable Cox regression was developed to identify factors associated with all-cause mortality and gastric cancer-specific mortality. Survival curves were obtained according to the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Results: We identified 1,104 patients with gastric cancer and pulmonary metastases at the time of diagnosis, representing 6.02% of the entire cohort and 15.19% of the subset with metastatic disease to any distant site. Among the entire cohort, multivariable logistic regression identified six factors (younger, upper 1/3 of stomach, intestinal-type, T4 staging, N1 staging, and presence of more extrapulmonary metastases to liver, bone, and brain) as positive predictors of the presence of pulmonary metastases at diagnosis. The value of AUC for the multivariable logistic regression model was 0.775. Median survival among the entire cohort with GCPM was 3.0 months (interquartile range: 1.0-9.0 mo). Multivariable Cox model in SEER cohort confirmed five factors (diagnosis at previous period, black race, adverse pathology grade, absence of chemotherapy, and presence of more extrapulmonary metastases to liver, bone, and brain) as negative predictors for overall survival. Conclusions: The findings of this study provided population-based estimates of the frequency and prognosis for GCPM at time of diagnosis. The multivariable logistic regression model had an acceptable performance to predict the presence of PM. These findings may provide preventive guidelines for the screening and treatment of PM in GC patients. Patients with high risk factors should be paid more attention before and after diagnosis.

Project description:BackgroundThe optimal tool for predicting the survival of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients with lung metastases remains controversial.MethodsWe selected patients diagnosed with RCC and lung metastases, from 2010 to 2015, from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. After the selection of inclusion criteria and exclusion criterion, the rest of the patients were incorporated into model analysis. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select the most important features for construction of a nomogram predicting cancer-specific survival. A calibration plot and the concordance index (C-index) were used to estimate nomogram efficacy in a validation cohort. The association between important factors selected by LASSO regression, and prognosis was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to compare sensitivity and specificity between the nomogram we built and the TNM stage-based model.ResultsA total of 1,369 patients met the inclusion criteria, but not the exclusion criteria. The LASSO regression model reduced 15 features to seven potential predictors of survival, including tumor grade, the extent of surgery, N and T status, histological profile, and brain and bone metastasis status. Such features had good discrimination in the KM survival curves. The nomogram showed excellent discriminatory power (C-index, 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.70 to 0.72) and good calibration in terms of both 1- and 2-year cancer-specific survival. The nomogram showed great discriminatory power (C-index 0.68) and adequate calibration when applied to the validation cohort. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of nomogram were 0.767 and 0.780, respectively, and the AUCs of TNM stage were 0.617 and 0.618 at 1 and 2 years, respectively.ConclusionsOur nomogram might play a major role in predicting the cancer-specific survival of RCC patients with lung metastases.

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Nomogram Models for Predicting Risk and Prognosis of Newly Diagnosed Ovarian Cancer Patients with Liver Metastases - A Large Population-Based Real-World Study.

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