Measuring Labor Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chaar T
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8739705 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages. Most sectors were subject to large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April 2020, with substantial heterogeneity in the size of shocks across sectors. Our estimates suggest that two-thirds of the drop in the aggregate growth rate of hours in March and April 2020 are attributable to labor supply. We validate our estimates of supply shocks by showing that they are correlated with sectoral measures of telework.
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Project description:Millions of smallholder farmers in low-income countries are highly vulnerable to food-supply shocks, and reducing this vulnerability remains challenging in view of climatic changes. Restrictions to limit the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic produced a severe supply-side shock in rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, including through frictions in agricultural markets. We use a large-scale field experiment to examine the effects of improved on-farm storage on household food security during COVID-19 restrictions. Based on text message survey data we find that the prevalence of food insecurity increased in control group households during COVID-19 restrictions (coinciding with the agricultural lean season). In treatment households, equipped with an improved on-farm storage technology and training in its use, food insecurity was lower during COVID-19 restrictions. This underscores the benefits of improved on-farm storage for mitigating vulnerability to food-supply shocks. These insights are relevant for the larger, long-term question of climate change adaptation, and also regarding trade-offs between public health protection and food security.
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Project description:This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience an earnings decline of at least 10 percent. While most workers experiencing large annual earnings declines do not receive unemployment insurance, over half of beneficiaries were made whole in 2020, as unemployment insurance replaced a median of 105 percent of their annual earnings declines. After incorporating unemployment insurance, the likelihood of large earnings declines among low-earning workers was not only smaller than during the Great Recession, but also smaller than in 2019.
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Project description:Shocks to health have been shown to reduce labor supply for the individual affected. Less is known about household self-insurance through a partner's response. Previous studies have presented inconclusive empirical evidence on the existence of a health-related Added Worker Effect, and results limited to labor and income responses. We use UK longitudinal data to investigate within households both the labor supply and informal care responses of an individual to the event of an acute health shock to their partner. Relying on the unanticipated timing of shocks, we combine Coarsened Exact Matching and Entropy Balancing algorithms with parametric analysis and exploit lagged outcomes to remove bias from observed confounders and time-invariant unobservables. We find no evidence of a health-related Added Worker Effect but a significant and sizable Informal Carer Effect. This holds irrespective of spousal labor market position or household financial status and ability to purchase formal care provision, suggesting that partners' substitute informal care provision for time devoted to leisure activities.
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Project description:The impacts of COVID-19 on labor in the food supply chain and on workers' decisions to accept essential jobs are discussed. We then analyze surveys administered to low-skilled domestic workers before and during the pandemic to assess respondents' attitudes toward food production, guest workers, immigration policy, and the government's response to COVID-19. Results suggest the outbreak resulted in respondents, on average, shifting their view toward food being a national security issue and a higher degree of empathy for H-2A workers. Regression analysis shows that gender, current agricultural workers, and information on COVID-19 and agricultural field workers influenced respondents' answers.
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Project description:BackgroundWe describe blood supply and usage from March to December 2020 in two research medical hospitals in the Apulia region of Italy: Research Hospital "Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza" (Centre 1) and University Hospital of Bari (Centre 2).Materials and methodsWe performed a retrospective observational study of blood component transfusions in the first eight months of the pandemic: 1st March-31st December 2020. We assessed the number of hospitalised patients who were transfused, the number and type of blood components donated and the number and type of blood components transfused in different care settings.ResultsBlood donations were lower in 2020 than in 2019, with a significant reduction in red blood cells (RBC) transfused (-29% in 2020 vs 2019) and fewer transfusions in 2020 in the Internal Medicine departments (-67% and -44% in Centres 1 and 2, respectively) and Intensive Care Units (ICUs) (-53% and -54% in Centres 1 and 2, respectively). The overall number of fatalities was significantly lower in 2020 than in 2019; the proportion of fatalities in men was significantly higher in 2020 than in 2019 (53.9% and 41.5%, respectively; p=0.000). Among COVID-19 patients (n=645), 427 (66.2%) were transfused in Infectious Disease departments and the remaining in ICUs. The fatality rate was 14.3% in COVID patients transfused in Infectious Disease departments and 22.5% in those transfused in ICUs. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed 30- and 60-day mortality was significantly higher in patients transfused in 2020 compared to those transfused in 2019. Fatalities were mostly observed in COVID-19 patients.DiscussionPresent data may be helpful in understanding the trend of collection and use of blood supplies during periods of pandemic. The implementation of a Patient Blood Management programme is essential to maintain sufficient blood supplies and to keep track of clinical outcomes that represent the most important goal of transfusion.
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Project description:The availability of an adequate blood supply is a critical public health need. An influenza epidemic or another crisis affecting population mobility could create a critical donor shortage, which could profoundly impact blood availability. We developed a simulation model for the blood supply environment in the United States to assess the likely impact on blood availability of factors such as an epidemic. We developed a simulator of a multi-state model with transitions among states. Weekly numbers of blood units donated and needed were generated by negative binomial stochastic processes. The simulator allows exploration of the blood system under certain conditions of supply and demand rates, and can be used for planning purposes to prepare for sudden changes in the public's health. The simulator incorporates three donor groups (first-time, sporadic, and regular), immigration and emigration, deferral period, and adjustment factors for recruitment. We illustrate possible uses of the simulator by specifying input values for an 8-week flu epidemic, resulting in a moderate supply shock and demand spike (for example, from postponed elective surgeries), and different recruitment strategies. The input values are based in part on data from a regional blood center of the American Red Cross during 1996-2005. Our results from these scenarios suggest that the key to alleviating deficit effects of a system shock may be appropriate timing and duration of recruitment efforts, in turn depending critically on anticipating shocks and rapidly implementing recruitment efforts.
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Project description:This paper tries to examine how the COVID-19 shock affects different countries through their regional integration and their exposure to Global Value Chains (GVCs). Using input-output tables from the EORA dataset, our contribution is threefold. First, we conceptually revise the approache to analyse input-output relationships and underline the difference between the bilateral flow of value added and trade and distinguish between the producers and consumers of value-added. Second, we distinguish between the supply and demand channels through which these countries can be affected by the disruptions in GVCs. Third, we apply this empirical exercise on an understudied region, namely the Mediterranean region that is characterised by its involvement in several trade agreements that might boost their integration into GVCs. Our main findings show that, first, most of the countries have relatively larger backward GVC linkages than forward ones. Second, in the Northern shore of the Mediterranean, Italy and France are net suppliers of value added since they produce more value-added absorbed abroad than the foreign value-added they consume. Third, our results highlight also the limited integration between Southern shore partners, whose integration is almost completely driven by linkages with Southern European developed countries.
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Project description:We use job vacancy data collected in real time by Burning Glass Technologies, as well as unemployment insurance (UI) initial claims and the more traditional Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data to study the impact of COVID-19 on the labor market. Our job vacancy data allow us to track the economy at disaggregated geography and by detailed occupation and industry. We find that job vacancies collapsed in the second half of March. By late April, they had fallen by over 40%. To a first approximation, this collapse was broad based, hitting all U.S. states, regardless of the timing of stay-at-home policies. UI claims and BLS employment data also largely match these patterns. Nearly all industries and occupations saw contraction in postings and spikes in UI claims, with little difference depending on whether they are deemed essential and whether they have work-from-home capability. Essential retail, the "front line" job most in-demand during the current crisis, took a much smaller hit, while leisure and hospitality services and non-essential retail saw the biggest collapses. This set of facts suggests the economic collapse was not caused solely by the stay-at-home orders, and is therefore unlikely to be undone simply by lifting them.
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