Project description:Close contact between people is the primary route for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We sought to quantify interpersonal contact at the population-level by using anonymized mobile device geolocation data. We computed the frequency of contact (within six feet) between people in Connecticut during February 2020 - January 2021. Then we aggregated counts of contact events by area of residence to obtain an estimate of the total intensity of interpersonal contact experienced by residents of each town for each day. When incorporated into a susceptible-exposed-infective-removed (SEIR) model of COVID-19 transmission, the contact rate accurately predicted COVID-19 cases in Connecticut towns during the timespan. The pattern of contact rate in Connecticut explains the large initial wave of infections during March-April, the subsequent drop in cases during June-August, local outbreaks during August-September, broad statewide resurgence during September-December, and decline in January 2021. Contact rate data can help guide public health messaging campaigns to encourage social distancing and in the allocation of testing resources to detect or prevent emerging local outbreaks more quickly than traditional case investigation.One sentence summaryClose interpersonal contact measured using mobile device location data explains dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Connecticut during the first year of the pandemic.
Project description:BackgroundVaccine hesitancy threatens efforts to bring the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to an end. Given that social or interpersonal contact is an important driver for COVID-19 transmission, understanding the relationship between contact rates and vaccine hesitancy may help identify appropriate targets for strategic intervention. The purpose of this study was to assess the association between interpersonal contact and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among a sample of unvaccinated adults in the Canadian province of British Columbia (BC).MethodsUnvaccinated individuals participating in the BC COVID-19 Population Mixing Patterns Survey (BC-Mix) were asked to indicate their level of agreement to the statement, "I plan to get the COVID-19 vaccine." Multivariable multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the association between self-reported interpersonal contact and vaccine hesitancy, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, educational attainment, occupation, household size and region of residence. All analyses incorporated survey sampling weights based on age, sex, geography, and ethnicity.ResultsResults were based on survey responses collected between March 8, 2021 and December 6, 2021, by a total of 4,515 adults aged 18 years and older. Overall, 56.7% of respondents reported that they were willing to get the COVID-19 vaccine, 27.0% were unwilling and 16.3% were undecided. We found a dose-response association between interpersonal contact and vaccine hesitancy. Compared to individuals in the lowest quartile (least contact), those in the fourth quartile (highest contact), third quartile and second quartile groups were more likely to be vaccine hesitant, with adjusted odd ratios (aORs) of 2.85 (95% CI: 2.02, 4.00), 1.91(95% CI: 1.38, 2.64), 1.78 (95% CI: 1.13, 2.82), respectively.ConclusionStudy findings show that among unvaccinated people in BC, vaccine hesitancy is greater among those who have high contact rates, and hence potentially at higher risk of acquiring and transmitting infection. This may also impact future uptake of booster doses.
Project description:Small populations (e.g., hospitals, schools or workplaces) are characterised by high contact heterogeneity and stochasticity affecting pathogen transmission dynamics. Empirical individual contact data provide unprecedented information to characterize such heterogeneity and are increasingly available, but are usually collected over a limited period, and can suffer from observation bias. We propose an algorithm to stochastically reconstruct realistic temporal networks from individual contact data in healthcare settings (HCS) and test this approach using real data previously collected in a long-term care facility (LTCF). Our algorithm generates full networks from recorded close-proximity interactions, using hourly inter-individual contact rates and information on individuals' wards, the categories of staff involved in contacts, and the frequency of recurring contacts. It also provides data augmentation by reconstructing contacts for days when some individuals are present in the HCS without having contacts recorded in the empirical data. Recording bias is formalized through an observation model, to allow direct comparison between the augmented and observed networks. We validate our algorithm using data collected during the i-Bird study, and compare the empirical and reconstructed networks. The algorithm was substantially more accurate to reproduce network characteristics than random graphs. The reconstructed networks reproduced well the assortativity by ward (first-third quartiles observed: 0.54-0.64; synthetic: 0.52-0.64) and the hourly staff and patient contact patterns. Importantly, the observed temporal correlation was also well reproduced (0.39-0.50 vs 0.37-0.44), indicating that our algorithm could recreate a realistic temporal structure. The algorithm consistently recreated unobserved contacts to generate full reconstructed networks for the LTCF. To conclude, we propose an approach to generate realistic temporal contact networks and reconstruct unobserved contacts from summary statistics computed using individual-level interaction networks. This could be applied and extended to generate contact networks to other HCS using limited empirical data, to subsequently inform individual-based epidemic models.
Project description:PURPOSE:Community-based programming to promote gender equity, often delivered through community-based girl groups (CBGGs, sometimes called "safe spaces"), is increasing. However, evidence is weak on how CBGGs are implemented and their effect on adolescent girls' health and well-being. We conducted a comprehensive literature review to identify relevant CBGG programs. METHODS:The review included programs with impact evaluations that used experimental or quasi-experimental design, data from 2 time points, control/comparison groups, and quantitative program effects and P values. RESULTS:We analyzed evaluations of 30 programs (14 randomized controlled trials, 16 quasi-experimental). Although program designs varied, most programs targeted unmarried girls aged 13 to 18 years who were both in school and not in school, and who met weekly in groups of 15 to 25 girls. Nearly all programs used multisectoral approaches focusing on life skills and often economic and financial content, such as financial literacy and microsavings. Complementary activities with community members, boys, and health services were common. Across programs, evaluations reported statistically significant effects (P<.05) the majority (>50%) of times they measured outcomes related to gender and health attitudes and knowledge, education, psychosocial well-being, and economic and financial outcomes. Measures of outcomes related to girls' health behaviors and health status had majority null findings. CONCLUSIONS:CBGG program evaluations found positive effects on girl-level outcomes that are independent of external factors, like gender norm attitudes, and suboptimal performance on health behavior and health status, which rely on other people and systems. This delivery model has promise for building girls' assets. Complementary actions to engage girls' social environments and structures are needed to change behaviors and health status.
Project description:ObjectivesIn order to provide a broad overview of the body of peer-reviewed literature on self-compassion and close relationships, this scoping review describes how self-compassion relates to thoughts, feelings and behaviors within the context of current personal relationships between family members, romantic partners, friends, or others referred to as "close".MethodsTwo reviewers independently screened peer-reviewed articles retrieved based on a defined search strategy within three online databases, extracted data from 72 articles that met inclusion criteria by consensus, and summarized findings thematically. Results: With few exceptions, self-compassion is positively associated with secure attachment, adaptive parenting behaviors, healthy family, romantic and friendship functioning, and constructive conflict and transgression repair behavior. In families, evidence suggests parent self-compassion is linked to supportive parenting behavior, which is in turn linked to higher levels of child self-compassion.ConclusionsSelf-compassion is associated with a wide variety of close interpersonal relationship benefits. These associations may be complex and bidirectional, such that positive social relationships promote self-compassion, while self-compassion promotes relational and emotional well-being. For a deeper understanding of these nuances and to establish causality, future research should include heterogeneous samples, longitudinal designs, observational and multi-informant methodologies, and consider attachment style and personality trait covariates. The potential implications for interventional research are discussed.
Project description:The transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 within hospitals can exceed that in the general community because of more frequent close proximity interactions (CPIs). However, epidemic risk across wards is still poorly described. We measured CPIs directly using wearable sensors given to all present in a clinical ward over a 36-h period, across 15 wards in three hospitals in April-June 2020. Data were collected from 2114 participants and combined with a simple transmission model describing the arrival of a single index case to the ward to estimate the risk of an outbreak. Estimated epidemic risk ranged four-fold, from 0.12 secondary infections per day in an adult emergency to 0.49 per day in general paediatrics. The risk presented by an index case in a patient varied 20-fold across wards. Using simulation, we assessed the potential impact on outbreak risk of targeting the most connected individuals for prevention. We found that targeting those with the highest cumulative contact hours was most impactful (20% reduction for 5% of the population targeted), and on average resources were better spent targeting patients. This study reveals patterns of interactions between individuals in hospital during a pandemic and opens new routes for research into airborne nosocomial risk.
Project description:Cancer is a complex phenomenon, and the sheer variation in behaviour across different types renders it difficult to ascertain underlying biological mechanisms. Experimental approaches frequently yield conflicting results for myriad reasons, and mathematical modelling of cancer is a vital tool to explore what we cannot readily measure, and ultimately improve treatment and prognosis. Like experiments, models are underpinned by certain biological assumptions, variation of which can lead to divergent predictions. An outstanding and important question concerns contact inhibition of proliferation (CIP), the observation that proliferation ceases when cells are spatially confined by their neighbours. CIP is a characteristic of many healthy adult tissues, but it remains unclear to which extent it holds in solid tumours, which exhibit regions of hyper-proliferation, and apparent breakdown of CIP. What precisely occurs in tumour tissue remains an open question, which mathematical modelling can help shed light on. In this perspective piece, we explore the implications of different hypotheses and available experimental evidence to elucidate the implications of these scenarios. We also outline how erroneous conclusions about the nature of tumour growth may be arrived at by looking selectively at biological data in isolation, and how this might be circumvented.
Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is primarily a respiratory disease that has become a global pandemic. Close contact plays an important role in infection spread, while fomite may also be a possible transmission route. Research during the COVID-19 pandemic has identified long-range airborne transmission as one of the important transmission routes although lack solid evidence.MethodsWe examined video data related to a restaurant associated COVID-19 outbreak in Guangzhou. We observed more than 40,000 surface touches and 13,000 episodes of close contacts in the restaurant during the entire lunch duration. These data allowed us to analyse infection risk via both the fomite and close contact routes.ResultsThere is no significant correlation between the infection risk via both fomite and close contact routes among those who were not family members of the index case. We can thus rule out virus transmission via fomite contact and interpersonal close contact routes in the Guangzhou restaurant outbreak. The absence of a fomite route agrees with the COVID-19 literature.ConclusionsThese results provide indirect evidence for the long-range airborne route dominating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the restaurant. We note that the restaurant was poorly ventilated, allowing for increasing airborne SARS-CoV-2 concentration.
Project description:Mobile device proficiency is increasingly required to participate in society. Unfortunately, there still exists a digital divide between younger and older adults, especially with respect to mobile devices (i.e., tablet computers and smartphones). Training is an important goal to ensure that older adults can reap the benefits of these devices. However, efficient/effective training depends on the ability to gauge current proficiency levels. We developed a new scale to accurately assess the mobile device proficiency of older adults: the Mobile Device Proficiency Questionnaire (MDPQ). We present and validate the MDPQ and a short 16-question version of the MDPQ (MDPQ-16). The MDPQ, its subscales, and the MDPQ-16 were found to be highly reliable and valid measures of mobile device proficiency in a large sample. We conclude that the MDPQ and MDPQ-16 may serve as useful tools for facilitating mobile device training of older adults and measuring mobile device proficiency for research purposes.