Project description:ImportanceUS residents report broad access to firearms, which are the most common means of suicide death in the US. Standardized firearm access questions during routine health care encounters are uncommon despite potential benefits for suicide prevention.ObjectiveTo explore patient and clinician experiences with a standard question about firearm access on a self-administered mental health questionnaire routinely used prior to primary care and mental health specialty encounters.Design, setting, and participantsQualitative semistructured interviews were conducted from November 18, 2019, to October 8, 2020, at Kaiser Permanente Washington, a large integrated care delivery system and insurance provider. Electronic health record data identified adult patients with a documented mental health diagnosis who had received a standard question about firearm access ("Do you have access to guns? yes/no") within the prior 2 weeks. A stratified sampling distribution selected 30% who answered "yes," 30% who answered "no," and 40% who left the question blank. Two groups of clinicians responsible for safety planning with patients at risk of suicide were also sampled: (1) licensed clinical social workers (LICSWs) in primary and urgent care settings and (2) consulting nurses (RNs).Main outcomes and measuresParticipants completed semistructured telephone interviews, which were recorded and transcribed. Directive (deductive) and conventional (inductive) content analyses were used to apply knowledge from prior research and describe new information. Thematic analysis was used to organize key content, and triangulation was used to describe the intersections between patient and clinician perspectives.ResultsThirty-six patients were interviewed (of 76 sampled; mean [SD] age, 47.3 [17.9] years; 19 [53%] were male; 27 [75%] were White; 3 [8%] were Black; and 1 [3%] was Latinx or Hispanic. Sixteen participants had reported firearm access and 15 had reported thoughts of self-harm on the questionnaire used for sampling. Thirty clinicians were interviewed (of 51 sampled) (mean [SD] age, 44.3 [12.1] years; 24 [80%] were female; 18 [60%] were White; 5 [17%] were Asian or Pacific Islander; and 4 [13%] were Latinx or Hispanic) including 25 LICSWs and 5 RNs. Key organizing themes included perceived value of standardized questions about firearm access, challenges of asking and answering, and considerations for practice improvement. Clinician interview themes largely converged and/or complemented patient interviews.Conclusions and relevanceIn this qualitative study using semistructured interviews with patients and clinicians, a standardized question about firearm access was found to encourage dialogue about firearm access. Respondents underscored the importance of nonjudgmental acknowledgment of patients' reasons for firearm access as key to patient-centered practice improvement.
Project description:ImportanceFirearm injury is the second leading cause of death in the United States for children and young adults. The risk of unintentional and self-inflicted firearm injury is lower when all household firearms are stored locked.ObjectiveTo estimate the reduction in youth firearm suicide and unintentional firearm mortality that would result if more adults in households with youth stored household guns locked.Design, setting, and participantsA modeling study using Monte Carlo simulation of youth firearm suicide and unintentional firearm mortality in 2015. A simulated US national sample of firearm-owning households where youth reside was derived using nationally representative rates of firearm ownership and storage and population data from the US Census to test a hypothetical intervention, safe storage of firearms in the home, on youth accidental death and suicide. Data analyses were performed from August 3, 2017, to January 9, 2018.ExposuresObserved and counterfactual household-level safe firearm storage (ie, storing all firearms locked), the latter estimated by varying the probability that a hypothetical intervention increased safe firearm storage beyond that observed in 2015.Main outcomes and measuresObserved and counterfactual counts of firearm suicide and unintentional firearm mortality among youth aged 0 to 19 years, the latter estimated by incorporating an empirically based estimate of the mortality benefit expected from additional safe storage (beyond that observed in 2015).ResultsA hypothetical intervention among firearm owners residing with children with a 20% probability of motivating these owners to lock all household firearms was significantly associated with a projected reduction in youth firearm mortality (median incidence rate ratio = 0.90; interquartile range, 0.87-0.93). In the overall model, 6% to 32% of deaths were estimated to be preventable depending on the probability of motivating safer storage.Conclusions and relevanceResults of this modeling study suggest that a relatively modest uptake of a straightforward safe storage recommendation-lock all household firearms-could result in meaningful reductions in firearm suicide and unintentional firearm fatalities among youth. Approaches that will motivate additional parents to store firearms safely are needed.
Project description:A first study to compare suicides by missing persons with other suicide cases.Retrospective cohort study for the period 1994-2007. GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION: Queensland, Australia.194 suicides by missing persons and 7545 other suicides were identified through the Queensland Suicide Register and the National Coroners Information System.?(2) statistics and binary logistic regression were used to identify distinct characteristics of suicides by missing persons.Compared with other suicide cases, missing persons significantly more often died by motor vehicle exhaust gas toxicity (23.7% vs 16.4%; ?(2)=7.32, p<0.01), jumping from height (6.7% vs 3.2%; ?(2)=7.08, p<0.01) or drowning (8.2% vs 1.8%; ?(2)=39.53, p<0.01), but less frequently by hanging (29.4% vs 39.9%; ?(2)=8.82, p<0.01). They were most frequently located in natural outdoors locations (58.2% vs 11.1%; ?(2)=388.25, p<0.01). Persons gone missing were less likely to have lived alone at time of death (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.76), yet more likely to be institutionalised (OR 3.12, 95% CI 1.28 to 7.64). They were less likely to have been physically ill (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.95) or have a history of problematic consumptions of alcohol (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.87). In comparison to other suicide cases, missing persons more often communicated their suicidal intent prior to death (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.22).Suicides by missing persons show several distinct characteristics in comparisons to other suicides. The findings have implications for development of suicide prevention strategies focusing on early identification and interventions targeting this group. In particular, it may offer assistance to police in designing risk assessment procedures and subsequent investigations of missing persons.
Project description:Access to firearms and perceived unsafe school environments are associated with negative adolescent health outcomes. Whether widespread acceptance of firearms alters these associations, however, is unknown. To address this literature gap, we examined whether peer acceptance of firearms moderates associations between personal firearm access and health outcomes. In 2018-2019, we analyzed Wave I of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (collected 1994-1995) to assess personal firearm access and school-level percentage of firearm access, using weighted multilevel analyses with interactions to determine associations among personal access, school-level percentage of access, and adolescent depression, suicidality, general health, and perceived school safety. Models controlled for age, sex, race, region, urbanicity, family structure, parental income and education level, school type, school size, and school quality. Results showed that personal firearm access was associated with depression (OR 1.20 p = 0.03), suicidal ideation (OR 1.73, p < 0.001), and perceiving school as unsafe (OR 1.59, p < 0.001). A higher school-level percentage of access, however, was associated with lower rather than higher odds of perceiving school as unsafe (OR 0.83, p = 0.003). With interaction terms included, the association between personal access and suicidal ideation was weaker when school-level access was more common. Similarly, the association between school-level access and poor general health was negative among students with personal access but positive among students with no access. These findings suggest firearm access is a complex social phenomenon. In a low-access environment, personal firearm access may signify a high-risk physical and mental state. In schools where access is common, however, personal access may signify social belonging, possibly mitigating some potential negative health effects. Although evidence that firearm access is harmful remains clear, local norms may have a substantial moderating impact.
Project description:Although 39,000 individuals die annually from gunshots in the US, research examining the effects of laws designed to reduce these deaths has sometimes produced inconclusive or contradictory findings. We evaluated the effects on total firearm-related deaths of three classes of gun laws: child access prevention (CAP), right-to-carry (RTC), and stand your ground (SYG) laws. The analyses exploit changes in these state-level policies from 1970 to 2016, using Bayesian methods and a modeling approach that addresses several methodological limitations of prior gun policy evaluations. CAP laws showed the strongest evidence of an association with firearm-related death rate, with a probability of 0.97 that the death rate declined at 6 y after implementation. In contrast, the probability of being associated with an increase in firearm-related deaths was 0.87 for RTC laws and 0.77 for SYG laws. The joint effects of these laws indicate that the restrictive gun policy regime (having a CAP law without an RTC or SYG law) has a 0.98 probability of being associated with a reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive policy regime. This estimated effect corresponds to an 11% reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive legal regime. Our findings suggest that a small but meaningful decrease in firearm-related deaths may be associated with the implementation of more restrictive gun policies.
Project description:ImportanceEvidence suggests that limiting access to firearms among individuals at high risk of suicide can be an effective means of suicide prevention, yet accurately identifying those at risk to intervene remains a key challenge. Firearm purchasing records may offer a large-scale and objective data source for the development of tools to predict firearm suicide risk.ObjectiveTo test whether a statewide database of handgun transaction records, coupled with machine learning techniques, can be used to forecast firearm suicide risk.Design, setting, and participantsThis prognostic study used the California database of 4 976 391 handgun transaction records from 1 951 006 individuals from January 1, 1996, to October 6, 2015. Transaction-level random forest classification was implemented to predict firearm suicide risk, and the relative predictive power of features in the algorithm was estimated via permutation importance. Analyses were performed from December 1, 2020, to May 19, 2022.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was firearm suicide within 1 year of a firearm transaction, derived from California death records (1996-2016). With the use of California's Dealer's Records of Sale (1996-2015), 41 handgun, transaction, purchaser, and community-level predictor variables were generated.ResultsThere are a total of 4 976 391 transactions in the California's Dealer's Record of Sale database representing 1 951 006 individuals (1 525 754 men [78.2% of individuals]; mean [SD] age, 43.4 [13.9] years). Firearm suicide within 1 year occurred in 0.07% of handgun transactions (3278 transactions among 2614 individuals). A total of 38.6% of observed firearm suicides were among transactions classified in the highest-risk ventile (379 of 983 transactions), with 95% specificity. Among the small number of transactions with a random forest score above 0.95, more than two-thirds (24 of 35 [68.6%]) were associated with a purchaser who died by firearm suicide within 1 year. Important features included known risk factors, such as older age at first purchase, and previously unreported predictors, including distance to firearms dealer and month of purchase.Conclusions and relevanceThis prognostic study presented the first large-scale machine learning analysis of individual-level handgun transaction records. The results suggested the potential utility of such records in identifying high-risk individuals to aid suicide prevention efforts. It also identified handgun, individual, and community characteristics that have strong predictive relationships with firearm suicide and may warrant further study.
Project description:PurposeIndividuals with poor physical and mental health may face elevated risk for suicide, particularly suicide by firearm.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study used statewide, longitudinally linked emergency department (ED) patient record and mortality data to examine 12-month incidence of firearm suicide among ED patients presenting with a range of physical health problems. Participants included all residents presenting to a California ED in 2009-2013 with nonfatal visits for somatic diagnoses hypothesized to increase suicide risk, including myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, cancer, back pain, headache, joint disorder, and injuries. For each patient diagnostic group, we calculated rates of firearm suicide per 100,000 person-years and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) relative to the demographically matched California population.ResultsFirearm suicide rates per 100,000 person-years ranged from 9.6 (among patients presenting with unintentional injury) to 55.1 (patients with cancer diagnoses), with SMRs from 1.48 to 7.45 (all p < 0.05). SMRs for patients with cardiovascular conditions ranged from 2.45 to 5.10. Men and older individuals had higher firearm suicide rates, and there was substantial between-group variability in the proportion of suicide decedents who used a firearm.ConclusionsED patients presenting with deliberate self-harm injuries, substance use, and cancer were especially at risk for firearm suicide. To avoid missed suicide prevention opportunities, EDs should implement evidence-based suicide interventions as a best practice for their patients.
Project description:ImportanceFirearms caused more than 500 pediatric fatalities in 2017-a 50% increase from 2009. Laws regulating firearms are one approach to reducing pediatric firearm fatalities.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between state child access prevention (CAP) firearm laws and pediatric firearm fatalities.Design, setting, and participantsA state-level, cross-sectional study of CAP firearm laws throughout the United States, 1991-2016, was conducted using negative binomial regression to analyze differences in state fatality rates in children aged 0 to 14 years. Data analysis was performed from November 21, 2018, to October 18, 2019.ExposuresImplementation of 2 categories of state CAP firearm laws: recklessness laws, which pertain to providing a firearm to a child, and negligence laws, which pertain to accessibility of a firearm within the home.Main outcomes and measuresRates of firearm fatalities across all intents and by specific intent (homicide, suicide, and unintentional) per 100 000 children aged 0 to 14 years.ResultsTwenty-five states passed CAP laws between 1989 and 2000. Between 1991 and 2016, 13 697 firearm fatalities occurred in children aged 0 to 14 years. Recklessness laws were not associated with changes in pediatric firearm fatality rates. Negligence laws overall were associated with significant reductions in firearm fatalities in children aged 0 to 14 years, with a 13% relative reduction in all firearm fatalities (95% CI, -18% to -7%), a 15% relative reduction in firearm homicides (95% CI, -22% to -7%), a 12% relative reduction in firearm suicides (95% CI, -20% to -2%), and a 13% relative reduction in unintentional firearm fatalities (95% CI, -24% to -1%). The most stringent negligence laws were associated with unintentional firearm fatality reductions of 59% (95% CI, -68% to -49%). A total of 3929 deaths (29% of all firearm deaths) were associated with states not having passed the most stringent form of negligence CAP laws.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, negligence laws were associated with relative reductions in firearm fatality rates in children aged 0 to 14 years. The most stringent negligence laws were associated with the largest reductions in unintentional firearm fatalities. Recklessness laws were not associated with reduced firearm fatality rates. The passage of negligence CAP laws may have the potential to reduce firearm fatalities in children.
Project description:The role of sex, race, and suicide method on recent increases in suicide mortality in the United States remains unclear. Estimating the age, period, and cohort effects underlying suicide mortality trends can provide important insights for the causal hypothesis generating process. We generated updated age-period-cohort effect estimates of recent suicide mortality rates in the US, examining the putative roles of sex, race, and method for suicide, using data from all death certificates in the US between 1999 and 2018. After designating deaths as attributable to suicide according to ICD-10 underlying cause of death codes X60-X84, Y87.0, and U03, we (i) used hexagonal grids to describe rates of suicide by age, period, and cohort visually and (ii) modeled sex-, race-, and suicide method-specific age, period, and cohort effects. We found that, while suicide mortality increased in the US between 1999 and 2018 across age, sex, race, and suicide method, there was substantial heterogeneity in age and cohort effects by method, sex, and race, with a first peak of suicide risk in youth, a second peak in older ages-specific to male firearm suicide, and increased rates among younger cohorts of non-White individuals. Our findings should prompt discussion regarding age-specific clinical firearm safety interventions, drivers of minoritized populations' adverse early-life experiences, and racial differences in access to and quality of mental healthcare.