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Comparison of the FRIEND and Wasserman-Hansen Equations in Predicting Outcomes in Heart Failure.

ABSTRACT: Background Percentage of age-predicted peak oxygen uptake (VO₂) achieved (ppVO₂) has been widely used to stratify risk in patients with heart failure. However, there are limitations to traditional normal standards. We compared the recently derived FRIEND (Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise: A National Data Base) equation to the widely used Wasserman-Hansen (WH) ppVO₂ equation to predict outcomes in patients with heart failure. Methods and Results A subgroup of 4055 heart failure patients from the FRIEND registry (mean age 53±15 years) was followed for a mean of 28±16 months. The FRIEND and WH equations along with measured peak VO₂ expressed in mL/kg^-1 per min^-1 were compared for mortality and composite cardiovascular events. ppVO₂ was higher for the FRIEND versus the WH equation (66±30% versus 58±25%; P<0.001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were slightly but significantly higher for the FRIEND equation for mortality (0.74 versus 0.72; P=0.03) and cardiac events (0.70 versus 0.68; P=0.008). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for measured peak VO₂ was 0.70 (P<0.001) for mortality and 0.73 (P<0.001) for cardiovascular events. For each 1-SD higher ppVO₂ for the FRIEND equation, mortality was reduced by 18% (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.69-0.97; P<0.02); for each 1-SD higher ppVO₂ for the WH equation, the mortality was reduced by 17% (hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.97; P=0.02). The corresponding reductions in risk per 1 SD for cardiovascular events for the FRIEND and WH equations were 23 and 21%, respectively (both P<0.001). Conclusions Peak VO₂ expressed as percentage of an age-predicted standard strongly predicts mortality and major cardiovascular events in patients with heart failure. The FRIEND registry equation exhibited test characteristics slightly superior to the commonly used WH equation.

SUBMITTER: Myers J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8751827 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are relevant independent outcomes in heart failure (HF) care and are predictive of subsequent hospitalization and death in HF. The Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) and the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ) are the 2 most widely adopted PROMs specific to HF. We compared their prognostic abilities in a prospective cohort of HF patients. A prospective cohort of subjects from a single-center registry was analyzed with regard to baseline KCCQ and MLHFQ scores and the outcomes of death, transplant, or left ventricular assist device implantation and hospitalization. A total of 516 subjects with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFrEF) and 151 subjects with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (HFpEF) were included. Discrimination was assessed using c-statistics based on time-to-event analyses and receiver-operator curves. The additive contribution of MLHFQ was assessed through the change in c-statistic, incremental discrimination index, and category-free net reclassification index. Overall, KCCQ was superior to MLHFQ for predicting death/transplant/ventricular assist device (c-statistic 0.702 [0.666 to 0.738] and 0.658 [0.621 to 0.695] respectively, p value for difference <0.001) and hospitalization (c-statistic 0.640 [0.613 to 0.666] and 0.624 [0.597 to 0.651], respectively, p value for difference 0.022). However, this difference was statistically nonsignificant in the HFpEF group alone. When analyzing the additional prognostic information afforded by adding MLHFQ to KCCQ in the overall, HFrEF, and HFpEF groups there was no significant improvement, although adding KCCQ to MLHFQ did significantly improve risk stratification. Scoring based upon the abbreviated KCCQ-12 did not reduce the prognostic accuracy of KCCQ. In conclusion, KCCQ is more prognostic of death/transplant/left ventricular assist device and hospitalization than MLHFQ in a combined cohort of patients with HFrEF and HFpEF, although the effect in HFpEF was less pronounced. KCCQ should be the preferred PROM for patients with HF if prognostication is a desired goal of using the PROMs.

Project description:ImportanceThe Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) estimate the 10-year risk for symptomatic heart failure (HF) from routine clinical data. The PCP-HF score should detect asymptomatic individuals with cardiac maladaptation preceding HF symptoms for it to be a useful HF prediction tool in primary prevention.ObjectiveTo assess the concordance between PCP-HF risk scoring and the presence of subclinical cardiac maladaptation in the community.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional analysis included participants enrolled in the Flemish Study on Environment, Genes and Health Outcomes who underwent a clinical examination including echocardiography between May 2005 and January 2015. Participants younger than 30 years, older than 79 years, had prevalent cardiovascular disease, and/or had suboptimal echocardiographic imaging quality were excluded. Analysis began February 2020 and ended April 2020.ExposuresTen-year HF risk as calculated from routine clinical data using the PCP-HF. Based on tertile limits, participants were categorized as having low (≤0.4%), intermediate (0.4%-2.4%), and high (≥2.4%) 10-year HF risk score.Main outcomes and measuresEchocardiographic profiles of subclinical heart remodeling and dysfunction.ResultsA total of 1020 individuals were analyzed (mean [SD] age, 52.8 [11.4] years; 541 female [53.0%]). The prevalence of left ventricular (LV) remodeling and dysfunction was significantly higher from low to intermediate and high 10-year HF risk score. A doubling in 10-year HF risk score was associated with higher odds for LV concentric remodeling (odds ratio [OR], 1.48; 95% CI, 1.36-1.61; P < .001), LV hypertrophy (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.51-1.83; P < .001), abnormal LV longitudinal strain (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05-1.19; P < .001), and LV diastolic dysfunction (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.94-2.69; P < .001). Moreover, the PCP-HF score detected echocardiographic abnormalities with an accuracy of 74% (LV concentric remodeling), 78% (LV hypertrophy), 59% (abnormal LV longitudinal strain), and 87% (LV diastolic dysfunction). The likelihood of LV concentric remodeling, hypertrophy, and diastolic dysfunction were 3.1, 3.8, and 9.4 times higher in participants with high 10-year HF risk score than the average population risk, respectively (P < .001). Of all PCP-HF score components, age, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure were key correlates of echocardiographic abnormalities in multivariable-adjusted analysis.Conclusions and relevancePCP-HF risk scoring adequately detected individuals with subclinical heart maladaptation that precedes HF symptoms by years. Thus, it may be a valuable HF prediction tool in primary prevention.

Project description:Identifying patients at risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression may facilitate more optimal nephrology care. Kidney failure risk equations, including such factors as age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and calcium and phosphate concentrations, were previously developed and validated in 2 Canadian cohorts. Validation in other regions and in CKD populations not under the care of a nephrologist is needed.To evaluate the accuracy of the risk equations across different geographic regions and patient populations through individual participant data meta-analysis.Thirty-one cohorts, including 721,357 participants with CKD stages 3 to 5 in more than 30 countries spanning 4 continents, were studied. These cohorts collected data from 1982 through 2014.Cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data on end-stage renal disease.Data were obtained and statistical analyses were performed between July 2012 and June 2015. Using the risk factors from the original risk equations, cohort-specific hazard ratios were estimated and combined using random-effects meta-analysis to form new pooled kidney failure risk equations. Original and pooled kidney failure risk equation performance was compared, and the need for regional calibration factors was assessed.Kidney failure (treatment by dialysis or kidney transplant).During a median follow-up of 4 years of 721,357 participants with CKD, 23,829 cases kidney failure were observed. The original risk equations achieved excellent discrimination (ability to differentiate those who developed kidney failure from those who did not) across all cohorts (overall C statistic, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.89-0.92 at 2 years; C statistic at 5 years, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90); discrimination in subgroups by age, race, and diabetes status was similar. There was no improvement with the pooled equations. Calibration (the difference between observed and predicted risk) was adequate in North American cohorts, but the original risk equations overestimated risk in some non-North American cohorts. Addition of a calibration factor that lowered the baseline risk by 32.9% at 2 years and 16.5% at 5 years improved the calibration in 12 of 15 and 10 of 13 non-North American cohorts at 2 and 5 years, respectively (P?=?.04 and P?=?.02).Kidney failure risk equations developed in a Canadian population showed high discrimination and adequate calibration when validated in 31 multinational cohorts. However, in some regions the addition of a calibration factor may be necessary.

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Comparison of the FRIEND and Wasserman-Hansen Equations in Predicting Outcomes in Heart Failure.

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