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Infection spread simulation technology in a mixed state of multi variant viruses.

ABSTRACT: ATLM (Apparent Time Lag Model) was extended to simulate the spread of infection in a mixed state of the variant virus and original wild type. It is applied to the 4th wave of infection spread in Tokyo, and (1) the 4th wave bottoms out near the end of the state of emergency, and the number of infected people increases again. (2) The rate of increase will be mainly by d strain (L452R) virus, while the increase by a strain (N501Y) virus will be suppressed. (3) It is anticipated that the infection will spread during the Olympic Games. (4) When variant viruses compete, the infection of highly infectious virus rises sharply while the infection by weakly infectious ones has converged. (5) It is effective as an infection control measure to find an infected person early and shorten the period from infection to quarantine by PCR test or antigen test as a measure other than the vaccine.

SUBMITTER: Koizumi M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8755968 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Infection spread simulation technology in a mixed state of multi variant viruses.

Koizumi Makoto M Utamura Motoaki M Kirikami Seiichi S

AIMS public health 20211105 1

ATLM (Apparent Time Lag Model) was extended to simulate the spread of infection in a mixed state of the variant virus and original wild type. It is applied to the 4th wave of infection spread in Tokyo, and (1) the 4th wave bottoms out near the end of the state of emergency, and the number of infected people increases again. (2) The rate of increase will be mainly by d strain (L452R) virus, while the increase by a strain (N501Y) virus will be suppressed. (3) It is anticipated that the infection w ...[more]

PMID: 35071665

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Project description:In order to effectively prevent the spontaneous combustion of residual coal in goaf, taking the 10,101 fully mechanized top coal caving face of Baozigou coal mine as research object, the multi-field coupling numerical model of nitrogen injection in goaf is established. The FLUENT software is used to study the variation law of spontaneous combustion zone in goaf under dynamic mining of working face with different nitrogen injection parameters, determining the range of spontaneous combustion zone in stable stage. The fitting curve between nitrogen injection parameters and width of spontaneous combustion zone in goaf is obtained. Results show that with the increase of nitrogen injection depth from 10 to 60 m, the width of spontaneous combustion zone in goaf begins to decrease gradually, yet the width of spontaneous combustion zone tends to expand after more than 40 m. When the nitrogen injection location is 40 m, the spontaneous combustion zone width decreases from 49 to 22 m as the nitrogen injection volume increases from 500 to 1000 m3/h. Nitrogen injection continuously reduces the area of high temperature zone and temperature extreme value. When the nitrogen injection parameter is set to (40 m-1000 m3/h), temperature extreme value decreases by 308.85 K compared with that without nitrogen injection. When the nitrogen injection parameter is (40 m-690 m3/h), it can meet the inert cooling requirements of goaf. The width of spontaneous combustion zone is 31 m and the temperature extreme value is 309.95 K at the moment. Finally, engineering application of the fire prevention technology combining shot-off loss wind and nitrogen injection is used to test effect of spontaneous combustion prevention and verify accuracy of nitrogen injection simulation. CO concentration at the measuring point 1, 3 and 5 are reduced to 0 × 10-3‰, 2 × 10-3‰ and 1.2 × 10-3‰, and temperature are reduced to 295.15 K, 296.15 K and 295.65 K respectively. It shows that the spontaneous combustion of residual coal in goaf has been successfully controlled.

Dataset Information

Infection spread simulation technology in a mixed state of multi variant viruses.

Publications

Infection spread simulation technology in a mixed state of multi variant viruses.

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