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Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to assess the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the second wave of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic across the world.

ABSTRACT: In the present paper, we aimed to determine the influence of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) enforced during the first wave of COVID-19 across countries on the spreading rate of COVID-19 during the second wave. For this purpose, we took into account national-level climatic, environmental, clinical, health, economic, pollution, social, and demographic factors. We estimated the growth of the first and second wave across countries by fitting a logistic model to daily-reported case numbers, up to the first and second epidemic peaks. We estimated the basic and effective (second wave) reproduction numbers across countries. Next, we used a random forest algorithm to study the association between the growth rate of the second wave and NPIs as well as pre-existing country-specific characteristics. Lastly, we compared the growth rate of the first and second waves of COVID-19. The top three factors associated with the growth of the second wave were body mass index, the number of days that the government sets restrictions on requiring facial coverings outside the home at all times, and restrictions on gatherings of 10 people or less. Artificial intelligence techniques can help scholars as well as decision and policy-makers estimate the effectiveness of public health policies, and implement "smart" interventions, which are as efficacious as stringent ones.

SUBMITTER: Tao S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8766477 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background Radiologists are proficient in differentiating between chest radiographs with and without symptoms of pneumonia but have found it more challenging to differentiate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia from non-COVID-19 pneumonia on chest radiographs. Purpose To develop an artificial intelligence algorithm to differentiate COVID-19 pneumonia from other causes of abnormalities at chest radiography. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, a deep neural network, CV19-Net, was trained, validated, and tested on chest radiographs in patients with and without COVID-19 pneumonia. For the chest radiographs positive for COVID-19, patients with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction results positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 with findings positive for pneumonia between February 1, 2020, and May 30, 2020, were included. For the non-COVID-19 chest radiographs, patients with pneumonia who underwent chest radiography between October 1, 2019, and December 31, 2019, were included. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were calculated to characterize diagnostic performance. To benchmark the performance of CV19-Net, a randomly sampled test data set composed of 500 chest radiographs in 500 patients was evaluated by the CV19-Net and three experienced thoracic radiologists. Results A total of 2060 patients (5806 chest radiographs; mean age, 62 years ± 16 [standard deviation]; 1059 men) with COVID-19 pneumonia and 3148 patients (5300 chest radiographs; mean age, 64 years ± 18; 1578 men) with non-COVID-19 pneumonia were included and split into training and validation and test data sets. For the test set, CV19-Net achieved an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.93). This corresponded to a sensitivity of 88% (95% CI: 87, 89) and a specificity of 79% (95% CI: 77, 80) by using a high-sensitivity operating threshold, or a sensitivity of 78% (95% CI: 77, 79) and a specificity of 89% (95% CI: 88, 90) by using a high-specificity operating threshold. For the 500 sampled chest radiographs, CV19-Net achieved an AUC of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) compared with an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.88) achieved by radiologists. Conclusion CV19-Net was able to differentiate coronavirus disease 2019-related pneumonia from other types of pneumonia, with performance exceeding that of experienced thoracic radiologists. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Project description:ObjectivesThe coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has affected countries around the world since 2020, and an increasing number of people are being infected. The purpose of this research was to use big data and artificial intelligence technology to find key factors associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 infection. The results can be used as a reference for disease prevention in practice.MethodsThis study obtained data from the "Imperial College London YouGov Covid-19 Behaviour Tracker Open Data Hub", covering a total of 291,780 questionnaire results from 28 countries (April 1~August 31, 2020). Data included basic characteristics, lifestyle habits, disease history, and symptoms of each subject. Four types of machine learning classification models were used, including logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, and artificial neural network, to build prediction modules. The performance of each module is presented as the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. Then, this study further processed important factors selected by each module to obtain an overall ranking of determinants.ResultsThis study found that the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the prediction modules established by the four machine learning methods were all >0.95, and the RF had the highest performance (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve is 0.988). Top ten factors associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 infection were identified in order of importance: whether the family had been tested, having no symptoms, loss of smell, loss of taste, a history of epilepsy, acquired immune deficiency syndrome, cystic fibrosis, sleeping alone, country, and the number of times leaving home in a day.ConclusionsThis study used big data from 28 countries and artificial intelligence methods to determine the predictors of the coronavirus disease 2019 infection. The findings provide important insights for the coronavirus disease 2019 infection prevention strategies.

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Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to assess the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the second wave of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic across the world.

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