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Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Outperforms Quantitative Chest CT Imaging Parameters for Mortality Prediction in COVID-19 ARDS.

ABSTRACT: (1) Background: Respiratory insufficiency with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and multi-organ dysfunction leads to high mortality in COVID-19 patients. In times of limited intensive care unit (ICU) resources, chest CTs became an important tool for the assessment of lung involvement and for patient triage despite uncertainties about the predictive diagnostic value. This study evaluated chest CT-based imaging parameters for their potential to predict in-hospital mortality compared to clinical scores. (2) Methods: 89 COVID-19 ICU ARDS patients requiring mechanical ventilation or continuous positive airway pressure mask ventilation were included in this single center retrospective study. AI-based lung injury assessment and measurements indicating pulmonary hypertension (PA-to-AA ratio) on admission CT, oxygenation indices, lung compliance and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores on ICU admission were assessed for their diagnostic performance to predict in-hospital mortality. (3) Results: CT severity scores and PA-to-AA ratios were not significantly associated with in-hospital mortality, whereas the SOFA score showed a significant association (p < 0.001). In ROC analysis, the SOFA score resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) for in-hospital mortality of 0.74 (95%-CI 0.63-0.85), whereas CT severity scores (0.53, 95%-CI 0.40-0.67) and PA-to-AA ratios (0.46, 95%-CI 0.34-0.58) did not yield sufficient AUCs. These results were consistent for the subgroup of more critically ill patients with moderate and severe ARDS on admission (oxygenation index <200, n = 53) with an AUC for SOFA score of 0.77 (95%-CI 0.64-0.89), compared to 0.55 (95%-CI 0.39-0.72) for CT severity scores and 0.51 (95%-CI 0.35-0.67) for PA-to-AA ratios. (4) Conclusions: Severe COVID-19 disease is not limited to lung (vessel) injury but leads to a multi-organ involvement. The findings of this study suggest that risk stratification should not solely be based on chest CT parameters but needs to include multi-organ failure assessment for COVID-19 ICU ARDS patients for optimized future patient management and resource allocation.

SUBMITTER: Puhr-Westerheide D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8775048 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Rationale: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is one of the major reasons for ventilation and intubation management of COVID-19 patients but there is no noninvasive imaging monitoring protocol for ARDS. In this study, we aimed to develop a noninvasive ARDS monitoring protocol based on traditional quantitative and radiomics approaches from chest CT. Methods: Patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 31, 2020 were enrolled in this study. Quantitative and radiomics data were extracted from automatically segmented regions of interest (ROIs) of infection regions in the lungs. ARDS existence was measured by Pa02/Fi02 <300 in artery blood samples. Three different models were constructed by using the traditional quantitative imaging metrics, radiomics features and their combinations, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the effectiveness of the models. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to test the clinical value of the proposed model. Results: The proposed models were constructed using 352 CT images from 86 patients. The median age was 49, and the male proportion was 61.9%. The training dataset and the validation dataset were generated by randomly sampling the patients with a 2:1 ratio. Chi-squared test showed that there was no significant difference in baseline of the enrolled patients between the training and validation datasets. The areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) of the traditional quantitative model, radiomics model and combined model in the validation dataset was 0.91, 0.91 and 0.94, respectively. Accordingly, the sensitivities were 0.55, 0.82 and 0.58, while the specificities were 0.97, 0.86 and 0.98. The DCA curve showed that when threshold probability for a doctor or patients is within a range of 0 to 0.83, the combined model adds more net benefit than "treat all" or "treat none" strategies, while the traditional quantitative model and radiomics model could add benefit in all threshold probability. Conclusions: It is feasible to monitor ARDS from CT images using radiomics or traditional quantitative analysis in COVID-19. The radiomics model seems to be the most practical one for possible clinical use. Multi-center validation with a larger number of samples is recommended in the future.

Project description:The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) was chosen in the definition of sepsis due to superior validity in predicting mortality. However, few studies have assessed the contributions of acute versus chronic organ failures to SOFA for mortality prediction.ObjectivesThe main objective in this study was to assess the relative importance of chronic and acute organ failures in mortality prediction in patients with suspected sepsis at hospital admission. We also evaluated how the presence of infection influenced the ability of SOFA to predict 30-day mortality.Design setting and participantsSingle-center prospective cohort study including 1,313 adult patients with suspected sepsis in rapid response teams in the emergency department.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was 30-day mortality. We measured the maximum total SOFA score during admission (SOFATotal), whereas preexisting chronic organ failure SOFA (SOFAChronic) score was assessed by chart review, allowing calculation of the corresponding acute SOFA (SOFAAcute) score. Likelihood of infection was determined post hoc as "No infection" or "Infection."ResultsSOFAAcute and SOFAChronic were both associated with 30-day mortality, adjusted for age and sex (adjusted odds ratios [AORs], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.3-14 and 1.3; 1.2-1.7), respectively. Presence of infection was associated with lower 30-day mortality (AOR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.6), even when corrected for SOFA. In "No infection" patients, SOFAAcute was not associated with mortality (AOR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1.0-1.2), and in this subgroup, neither SOFAAcute greater than or equal to 2 (relative risk [RR], 1.1; 95% CI, 0.6-1.8) nor SOFATotal greater than or equal to 2 (RR, 3.6; 95% CI, 0.9-14.1) was associated with higher mortality.Conclusions and relevanceChronic and acute organ failures were equally associated with 30-day mortality in suspected sepsis. A substantial part of the total SOFA score was due to chronic organ failure, calling for caution when using total SOFA in defining sepsis and as an outcome in intervention studies. SOFA's mortality prediction ability was highly dependent on actual presence of infection.

Project description:BackgroundEsophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH) is one of the high mortality complications in cirrhotic patients. Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is currently the standard therapy for EVH. However, some patients have expired during hospitalization or survived shortly after management.AimTo evaluate hospital and 6-week mortality by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score compared to a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class.MethodsWe retrospectively collected 714 cirrhotic patients with EVH post EVL between July 2010 and June 2016 at Taitung MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taiwan. CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were calculated for all patients admitted.ResultsAmong the 714 patients, the overall hospital and 6-week mortality rates were 6.9% (49/715) and 13.1% (94/715) respectively. For predicting hospital death, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were 0.964, 0.876, and 0.846. For predicting 6-week death, AUROC values of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were 0.943, 0.817, and 0.834. CLIF-SOFA score had higher AUROC value with statistical significance under pairwise comparison than did MELD score and CTP class in prediction of not only hospital but also 6-week mortality. The history of hepatocellular carcinoma was the risk factor for 6-week mortality. For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma the cut-point of CLIF-SOFA score was 5.5 for 6-week mortality and 6.5 for hospital mortality on admission. For patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, the cut-point of CLIF-SOFA score was 6.5 for both 6-week and hospital mortality.ConclusionCLIF-SOFA score predicted post-EVL prognosis well. For patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, CLIF-SOFA score ?6 suggests higher 6-week mortality and CLIF-SOFA score ?7 suggests higher hospital mortality. For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, CLIF-SOFA score ?7 suggests higher 6-week and hospital mortality.

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Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Outperforms Quantitative Chest CT Imaging Parameters for Mortality Prediction in COVID-19 ARDS.

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